Before we dip into the mailbag, I want to make a brief player recommendation. The Twins placed starter Mark Redman on the disabled list on Wednesday with a "strained tricep." Manager Tom Kelly is quite cautious with keeping his pitchers healthy, and Redman appears to have been shut down before the injury got out of hand.
His replacement on the roster is Brad Thomas, who is being promoted directly from Double-A New Britain. Thomas is a lefty from Australia, clocked at 91 mph and often higher. His curve and changeup are both solid, and he had no trouble in Double-A this year, going 5-0, 2.79 in eight starts, with an excellent 43/10 K/BB ratio. He is a very good, if unheralded, prospect, and should be watched closely to see how he adjusts to the major leagues.
Let's get to the mail, starting with a couple of philosophy questions.
Jeff K. writes: I have become a bigger and bigger baseball fan every year it seems. Over the few years I have been getting into the minor leagues as well as the majors. My question is, what can I do to judge pitching prospects? I know about K/BB ratios and homers since those a pitcher can control by himself. What am I missing? It also seems that ERAs for even good prospects don't really say much.
Here is how I evaluate pitchers.
I take a close look at three different ratios: K/BB, as you mention, but also K/IP and H/IP. Homer ratios are also interesting, but they aren't one of my key factors; I look at that more for whether a pitcher keeps the ball down or not. For all of this, park and league factors must be considered; a 3.50 ERA in the Florida State League is not as impressive as a 3.50 ERA in the California League. It is important to compare a pitcher to his peer group: 130 strikeouts in 150 innings would be a good mark in the Pacific Coast League, but would actually be a below-average mark in some seasons in the Midwest League.
Those are the numbers, but with pitchers especially you also have to look at scouting reports. Does he throw hard? If so, he has a better chance to succeed than a pitcher who doesn't. Is he intelligent? Does he get rattled with runners on base? How does he deal with errors made behind him? Of course, the numbers and the scouting reports should match. Sometimes, a guy who throws hard has low strikeout rates. You will find that guys like that often struggle at higher levels.
When looking at a pitcher, I watch his mechanics. Do they look awkward, in the sense that there is obvious stress on his elbow or shoulder? Does he repeat his mechanics from pitch to pitch, or do they vary? Some pitchers have weird looking mechanics, but they don't suffer because their bodies are used to it. But if a pitcher's mechanics are both awkward and inconsistent, that's a bad sign in my experience. Does he telegraph his pitches? Does he work too slowly with runners on base, putting his defense to sleep? All these factors must be considered.
Matt S. asks: You recently mentioned that you evaluate players on the basis of seven
tools, rather than the traditional five used by most scouts. What are
those seven tools, and do you rank them in any particular order?
For hitters, I use what I call the Seven Skills. There are four offensive skills and three defensive skills.
The offensive skills are hitting for average, hitting for power, strike zone judgment, and offensive speed. I consider strike zone judgment the most important of those, in the sense that most good hitters control the strike zone, while most bad or mediocre hitters do not. Visually, this can be distinguished by watching the guy hit: is he overanxious? Does he swing at stuff outside the strike zone too often?
Statistically, this can be measured by looking at BB/AB and BB/K marks. Generally speaking, the more walks the better, and the fewer strikeouts the better. Ideally, you want someone who draws a ton of walks and seldom strikes out. Few players reach that goal, of course. I don't mind someone who strikes out a lot, as long as he draws walks as well.
I use the term "offensive speed" rather than just "speed" because some guys are blazing fast, but can't run the bases well to save their lives. Other guys are adept at stealing bases through guile and skill, rather than pure speed.
The three defensive skills are range, reliability, and throwing utility. I consider range the most important of the three. A young player with good range but weak reliability has a chance to get more reliable as he gains experience. The converse is not true; a player who is reliable but doesn't get to many balls is unlikely to increase his real range, which is more of an organic attribute than a learned skill.
"Throwing utility," like "offensive speed," is a clarification of the traditional "arm strength" category. The arm with the greatest utility is both strong and accurate, of course. Some guys have cannon arms, but can't hit the cutoff man or get the ball within 20 feet of the catcher on a consistent basis. Other guys have relatively weak arms, but have a quick release and catch their share of runners through accuracy and intelligence.
Dave W. asks: How impressed are you with the fast start by Rick Elder in low-A ball? Could he become as good a hitter as, say, Geoff Jenkins and provide the Orioles with much-needed power?
Elder is hitting .300 with a .547 slugging percentage for the Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles) in the South Atlantic League. I'm impressed with his high walk rate (29 in 150 at-bats), but his strikeout rate is high enough to worry even me (50 so far). He has excellent raw power and is very dangerous when he works the count well.
Elder is a poor defensive player, having made 11 errors already at first base in just 38 games. He missed most of the 2000 season with an elbow injury, but hit .329 in the Appalachian League the year before, so I do think his bat is for real. I'm just not sure where they will play him.
James C. writes: I'm not sure if you've written about him before but in the papers around the area, Orioles shortstop prospect Ed Rogers got a lot of press during spring training. Many within the organization and a few outside of it, according to local writers, liken him to the next A-Rod. Given A-Rod's status as arguably the best position player in the majors, are these legit
comparisons or just wishful thinking?
Another Orioles question. That's OK; Baltimore fans need something to draw their interest this year.
Trust me, calling Ed Rogers the next A-Rod is wishful thinking, at best. He's hitting .193 through 41 games for Double-A Bowie, with a weak .253 slugging percentage. He's drawn just four walks, while fanning 34 times. He does have good defensive skills at shortstop, but his bat is worse than anemic; it's terrible. He's only 19, so Rogers does have time to improve. But A-Rod? No way. Maybe Benji Gil.
Phil M. writes: Bo Robinson is a third baseman in the Mariners system who has hit for average and drawn walks at every level. Now he has gotten off to a great start at Double-A. But the Mariners don't seem sold on him and I have never seen his name on a list of Mariners prospects. Why not? Do you see him as a prospect?
You're right, Robinson is hitting well at San Antonio, batting .301 through 42 games, with a .485 slugging percentage and a .400 OBP. He has drawn 23 walks in 136 at-bats, while striking out just 17 times. These numbers are in keeping with what he did at lower levels, so it does not appear to be a fluke. He entered the year with a career .312 average, and I think he'll be at or just below that this year, with a OBP near .400 and a SLG in the .470 range.
The reason you don't see Robinson on prospect lists is because he is too old. He turns 26 in August, and this is his first shot in Double-A. Of course, it's not his fault that the Mariners took so long to advance him, and so far he is taking advantage of his opportunity. His defense is OK, neither terrific nor terrible. If he keeps hitting, he deserves a shot.
Will he keep hitting? I think so. Will it be enough for him to get a chance in the majors? Maybe not. You've always got to leave roster room for Vinny Castilla.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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