First, a brief message of thanks to America's veterans, in celebration of Memorial Day. If you want to see true heroes, don't go to the multiplex movie theater. Go down to the VFW hall, or take a walk in the local cemetery and look at the markers and flags. Our nation isn't perfect; far from it. We've failed to live up to our ideals more often than not. But that doesn't make those ideals any less valuable or worth striving for.
Now, to the mailbag.
Paul M. writes: What is in the water down in Kane County, home of the Marlins' low-A affiliate? Chip Ambres, Adrian Gonzalez, Jim Kavourias and Will Smith are tearing the cover off the ball. Who are the keepers in the group?
The Cougars are 35-15, and all four of those guys are whacking the ball well. The best prospect in the bunch is first baseman Gonzalez (.343, .416 OBP, .531 SLG), who was the first player picked in the draft last year. He has excellent strike zone judgment, will hit for average at every level, and is showing much more power than he did last year in rookie ball.
Outfielder Ambres was a first-round pick in 1998, and didn't play well last year at Kane County. He was injured for much of the year however, and while he is repeating the league, scouts remain high on him. He is the best overall athlete of the group, and is hitting .313 with a .427 OBP and 10 steals thus far.
Outfielder Kavourias is hitting just .268, but has slammed 12 homers and has a .531 slugging percentage. A fifth-round pick last year from the University of Tampa, he is older than Ambres and Gonzalez and isn't in their class as a prospect. But his power is genuine, and he has a strong arm from the outfield.
The third outfielder, Smith, is hitting .351 with a .556 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed line-drive hitter, a sixth-round pick last year from high school in Arizona. He hit .368 in rookie ball, so the high batting average this year is no fluke. Smith doesn't have Ambres' speed or Kavourias' raw power, but he looks like a very productive for-average hitter and is quite young.
All in all, I would rank them Gonzalez/Ambres/Smith/Kavourias.
Alice L. asks: Will the Twins pick USC right-hander Mark Prior at No. 1 next week? Or will he fall to the Cubs with the second pick?
According to recent reports, the Twins have narrowed their choices to Prior and Minnesota high school catcher Joe Mauer. This is something of a no-lose situation for the Twins. Prior is possibly the best pitcher in college history, with an awesome combination of velocity, command, and mental/emotional control. Many scouts think he could step right into a major-league rotation, and with the Twins in a pennant race this year, that could be rather tempting. But Prior has very large bonus demands, rumored to be $10 million or more. That's pocket change to owner Carl Pohlad, especially with the Twins drawing well again, but they may still take a pass.
The second option is Mauer. While first-round high school catchers have a disturbing habit of failing in the professional ranks, Mauer should be an exception. He is an excellent athlete with good defensive skills, but is also a polished hitter with plus power from the left side. The fact that he is from St. Paul makes him very attractive as a hometown boy, and might make it a bit easier to buy him away from his Florida State football scholarship.
The draft experts at Baseball America believe that the Twins will take Mauer, and my guess is that they are right about that. This means that the Cubs would likely select Prior at No. 2.
Andrew B. writes: Who do you like better -- Morgan Ensberg or Keith Ginter? Ginter seems to be getting better prospect treatment, but after similar seasons last year, Ensberg performed better in winter ball, had a great spring, and is crushing PCL pitching.
Ginter is hitting well after a slow start for Triple-A New Orleans, but Ensberg has been on fire most of the season. He is now hitting .301 with 15 homers and a .602 slugging percentage, leading the PCL in homers.
I've seen both Ginter and Ensberg in action this season and last year, and I like them both. Ensberg has more raw power and bat speed, but Ginter is no slouch, and gets good drive to the opposite field. The difference this year has been plate discipline. Ensberg has been more selective, while Ginter was pressing early and getting himself out too often. Ginter is more versatile with the glove however. Both of them are too old at 25 to be top-notch future superstar type prospects, but I think both will have productive major-league careers. Whether it happens with the Astros or not depends on stuff like what happens with Craig Biggio.
Mario M. asks: I was wondering what you think about Chin-Feng Chen of the Dodgers. He had a huge year in '99, started great in 2000 but then tailed off. Do you think he will be a star in the majors?
I thought Chen was going to be a star after his terrific 1999 season in the California League, but 2000 was a massive disappointment. He got off to a good start in the Florida State League this year, positioning himself for a quick trip back to Double-A, but he got into a slump a few weeks ago and is struggling again. Chen is hitting just .246 with a .399 slugging percentage at Class A Vero Beach.
I'm worried about him. He proved he could handle A-ball two years ago; it's puzzling why he is struggling so badly. His strike zone judgment has deteriorated, and he doesn't seem to be playing with the same level of confidence and poise that he did two years ago. Whether this is a cause of his troubles or a symptom of them remains to be seen. He is still too young to give up on completely, but his chances for stardom are fading.
David S. asks: What's the scoop on Red Sox farmhand Justin Duchscherer? I hear plenty about Brad Baker, Casey Fossum, Seung Song, and Phil Dumatrait, but have heard no good vibes on Duchscherer. Does this guy have a serious flaw, or are they just not sure how they'll fit all those letters on the back of a Red Sox uniform?
Duchscherer is 4-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 starts for Double-A Trenton. He has a fine 52/11 K/BB ratio, and has allowed just 42 hits in 60.2 innings, obviously numbers worthy of notice. He doesn't get as much attention as those other guys because he doesn't throw as hard, plus he is repeating the Eastern League.
He went 7-9, 3.39 in 24 starts for Trenton last year, so he's proven he can handle this level of competition. His fastball is average on a good day, but he does throw strikes with it. His curve and changeup are deceptive, and he does all the little things to help give himself a chance. Having proved himself at Trenton, he deserves a shot at Triple-A Pawtucket. But because he doesn't throw hard, the burden will always be on him to prove he belongs.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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