We're going to do the mailbag a couple of days early this week, switching places with the regular prospect reports. This week we'll address questions regarding last week's "First-Year Player" draft.
Todd F. asks: Your first-round recap says the Pirates will move their top selection to the outfield, but the Pittsburgh media is saying the Pirates plan to have him pitch. What's the deal?
After I wrote the article, the Pirates announced that they selected Kent State slugger John VanBenschoten primarily as a pitcher. Every other team saw him as a power masher; some scouts rated his power as an "8" on the standard 2-8 scale, on the heels of a .443 batting average and 30 homers. While the Pirates do like his bat, they apparently are more enamored of his strong arm.
VanBenschoten does have some experience as a pitcher. He did some bullpen work this year, and was clocked as high as 93 mph. The Pirates believe that with experience and proper instruction, he could exceed that in the future, while adding nasty breaking stuff and good control. We'll see.
On the surface, this does appear to be a puzzling decision. The Pirates system is pretty thin, and they need hitting. VanBenschoten can certainly provide that, and I suppose that the outfield remains a fallback should he fail on the mound. But like all teams, they also covet live arms. I wouldn't have made this decision if I were the Pirates, but they didn't ask me.
Julio B. asks: How would you assess the Mets' 2001 draft?
I like this draft. It's a nice combination of high school and college talent. The first pick, Notre Dame ace Aaron Heilman, should advance quickly. Supplemental first-rounder David Wright is a polished high school hitter. Second-rounder Alhaji Turay is more "toolsy" and less refined, but has a high ceiling. Third-round pick Len DiNardo is a polished college lefty projected as a potential first-round pick at the start of the year. The Mets then turned mostly to college guys in the middle rounds, but with the occasional high schooler thrown in, from a variety of positions.
It's way too early to tell how it will turn out of course, but on the surface it looks nice. There's a mixture of tools guys and skill players, a variety of hitters and pitchers with different backgrounds.
Whit M. writes: I see the word "signability" in the paragraphs describing both first-round players selected by the Giants, and I want to barf. San Francisco is not a small-market team. OK, so they have to pay the mortgage on the stadium, but come on; 41,000-plus fans show up every night. Is there something philosophical about the Giants' approach, or are they just cheap?
Well, I wouldn't exactly call the Giants "cheap," but they aren't big spenders in the draft compared to some other teams. Part of the reason this year was the fact that they had two extra picks, courtesy of Ellis Burks' free-agent defection. Given the going rates for players picked even in the supplemental rounds, it's enough to blow your player procurement budget to tiny fragments if you aren't careful. The Giants could probably afford to spend more money than they do, but obviously the scouting folks have to work within the constraints set by ownership.
The Giants loaded up heavily with college talent, which is usually cheaper than high school guys. But college players also tend to be safer risks than high schoolers. Some teams focus on college players for philosophical reasons as much as financial ones.
Mike P. writes: I was wondering why you think the Orioles took Mike Fontenot when Jerry Hairston is playing pretty well at second base?
Well, few teams "draft for need" in the sense of picking a player because they have a weakness (or strength) at the major-league level. Most of the time, clubs pick the "best available" guy on their draft board when the pick comes. They may lean slightly one way or another depending on organizational needs, but that's usually factored into the player evaluations themselves before draft day.
Few college second basemen are legitimate top prospects, but Fontenot is. If he hits as well as expected, he could end up being a better player than Hairston. Also, by the time Fontenot is ready for the majors, Hairston will be eligible for arbitration (assuming that arbitration still exists following the Winter Labor War) or possibly free agency if the rules are changed.
Ross asks: Can the Yankees' first-round pick John-Ford Griffin, take over for Paul O'Neill in right field next year?
I really love Griffin, and I think he could get to the majors almost as quickly as Mark Teixeira and Mark Prior. Griffin may not be ready by 2002, but if he turns into the hitter that I expect him to, he should be ready by '03.
How good will he be? Well, Griffin reminds some people of O'Neill himself.
Personally, I think he'll hit for a higher average than O'Neill, but with perhaps a bit less power. His on-base percentage and strike zone judgment should be excellent.
Tony P. writes: How would you rate the Royals' draft? I like Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby, but where are the much needed middle infielders?
The Royals went very heavy with high school talent this year. Eight of the first 10 guys they picked were prep players. Griffin and Crosby have outstanding ceilings, but will take some time to fully develop their skills. Much depends on what happens with Crosby's football career. If he devotes himself full-time to baseball, he could be a superstar.
They didn't pick much in the way of middle infielders, but again they weren't "drafting for need." This isn't my ideal draft; I would have put in some additional college guys to balance out the tools players.
After focusing on college picks (with only moderate success) in recent drafts, they seemed interested in adding additional athleticism to the organization. On the other hand, the Royals say that several of their prep picks are very polished for young players and aren't pure "tools" picks. If that pans out, this could be an excellent draft. But it will take time for the results to be known.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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