We have lots of questions to pick from this week. Let's get to it.
Jon S. asks: Could you please give me your thoughts on Ramon Vazquez? His offensive numbers/age seem to say that he is ready for a shot at a major-league job. Do you agree?
Yes. Vazquez gets no attention as a prospect, but his numbers are good and he isn't old. He hit .286 at Double-A New Haven, with doubles power and decent defense at shortstop. He's doing even better at Triple-A Tacoma this season, hitting .318 with a .426 on-base percentage and better reliability with the glove.
Vazquez is a left-handed hitter with good strike zone judgment. He turns 25 in August, making him a bit old but not ancient. The Mariners don't seem to like him much, but he's hit at every level and has some defensive value. He deserves a shot as a bench guy.
Randolph S. writes: I'm a history grad student struggling to finish my dissertation, I'm extremely envious of your alternate career path!
Anyhow, Orioles fans don't have a whole lot to do this season except follow the progress of the organization's minor leaguers. Here's another one for you: In the Minor League Scouting Notebook, you were optimistically agnostic about Tim Raines, Jr. Has his performance this year at Frederick and Bowie solidified his prospect status? His numbers look good, but I'm not sure how they rate in league context.
"Optimistically agnostic." I like that phrase.
Yes, I'm quite impressed with what Raines has done this year. He is showing more strength at the plate this year, while preserving his other skills. In 39 games at Double-A Bowie, Raines is hitting .300 with a .453 slugging percentage. The question in the past was his ability to hit for authority against good pitching, and he's doing that this year. The speed he inherited from his father is also apparent, with 16 steals and just five caught stealings thus far since being promoted.
Unless he falls into a deep slump, I don't see how he would get any less than a Grade B in the 2002 book, and maybe higher depending on how things work out at the end of the year compared to league norms.
Dan T. asks: Jae Weong Seo has been remarkable since his return from elbow surgery. Is this a case of a relatively polished guy schooling rough-edged Double-A youngsters, or does he have enough stuff to get big leaguers out, too?
Both, I think. When the Mets signed Seo out of Korea a few years ago, they knew they were getting someone with good control and solid pitching knowledge. His velocity turned out to be a bit better than expected, with a fastball that can touch 93 mph at times. His curve and changeup are very good. But he blew out his elbow and had to have Tommy John surgery in 1999, keeping him on the shelf all of last year.
He's back this year, still showing fine command and good stuff. He is 4-1, 1.39 in eight starts at Double-A Binghamton, with a 38/9 K/BB ratio. I would imagine that he'll reach Triple-A later this summer, and if he continues to pitch well a September call-up may be in order. The Mets will likely be cautious with him, but I'd give him an outside shot to make the club next year.
Dave C. writes: Do you have a report on Tim Redding? If so how do you think he'll fit in to the Astros short term plans. How is his stuff? How does he compare to Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, etc.?
Rob Neyer wrote a good report on Redding a few days ago. I don't have much to add to it, except to reiterate what Rob said: Redding throws very hard, he is throwing strikes this year, and if he improves his changeup a bit (and stays healthy), he'll be a very good, if not excellent, pitcher. Even if he doesn't improve the changeup, he'll be a force in relief.
His power/command combination is similar to what Oswalt and Miller bring to the table, giving the Astros a strong pitching nucleus for the future. And I also want to re-emphasize something that Rob mentioned: none of these guys were top draft picks, a tribute to what good scouting can do for you.
John H. asks: I have a cousin who plays in the Dodgers organization named Hunter Bledsoe. He was the SEC Conference Player of the Year for Vanderbilt in 1999. I was wondering what you think his chances are.
Bledsoe was a fifth-year senior when he hit .459 with 10 homers and 31 steals in '99. The Dodgers signed him as a free agent, and he's hit very well so far as a pro, including .320 for Vero Beach last year, and .319 this year.
The problem for Bledsoe is his age: 25, too old for the Florida State League. He's obviously proven he can play there, and if I were the Dodgers I'd give him a shot in Double-A at some point later this season. As a right-handed-hitting first baseman/DH type, his chance to make the majors is marginal unless he starts showing additional power to go with his batting average. But he does look like an interesting organizational player.
Dan S. writes: Is Marlon Byrd legit? He started off really slow in Double-A Reading, but has come on incredibly strong. Do you project him being in the majors in a year or two and producing what kind of numbers?
Byrd is hitting .283 with 15 homers and 15 steals for Double-A Reading. As you point out, he started slowly, and has done most of his damage during the last five or six weeks. He is a very good athlete with power, speed, and good range in the outfield. His arm is marginal, and his strike zone judgment is a potential weakness. His walk rate is a bit below where it should be, while he projects 100+ strikeouts this year.
On the other hand, scouts love his personality and willingness to work hard, and he's certainly done well for a 10th-round pick. Whether he becomes a regular or just a useful bench guy will depend on if he hones the strike zone. I like him as tools guys go, but I do worry a bit about his plate discipline.
Rich W. asks: What do you think about Nate Cornejo? He's been unbelievable for Detroit in Double-A Erie so far this season. Do you think he'll be brought up by August, maybe earlier?
Cornejo is very quietly having an excellent year: 8-3, 2.63 in 15 starts in Double-A, with a fair 79/34 K/BB ratio. He throws quite hard, and is showing much improved command and control this season. Cornejo was a second-round pick from a Kansas high school in 1998, but hasn't received much attention for a premium pick.
If he pitched for the Yankees or something, he would be better known. I think he is a very good prospect, but I wouldn't expect to see him in the majors that quickly. The Tigers don't seem in any hurry to rush him, and that is a good thing.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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