I hope everyone had a safe and happy Independence Day, filled with baseball, fireworks, hot dogs, and family. Let's begin.
Jeff R. from Milwaukee writes: You were skeptical about Ben Sheets at the beginning of the year. He's pitching great. What do you have to say about him now?
I was always quite clear that I liked Sheets' long-term potential, but I felt he was likely to struggle initially, based on his low strikeout ratios and mediocre K/BB numbers in Triple-A last year, and again in spring training this year. He has exceeded my expectations, going 10-4 in his first 15 starts, with a fine 3.59 ERA. He's been particularly effective since the beginning of May, going 9-3 and not losing a game in the month of June.
Even with these solid numbers, Sheets' K/IP and K/BB ratios remain rather mediocre. He has 60 strikeouts and 36 walks in 100.1 innings. The control numbers are good, but his K-rate remains lower than I like to see. Most pitchers who are successful for long periods of time strike out more guys than Ben does. That said, there are exceptions. Ben's K/BB mark in June was 25/8, so he is improving in that category, obviously a good sign.
Barring injury, I imagine that Sheets will see a slight rise in his ERA as the season progresses, but finish the year with well above-average numbers overall, say 17-10, 3.60 ERA, damn fine for a rookie (or anyone else for that matter). He could win 20 games if the Brewers continue to score six runs a game for him.
Jack H. asks: What's your take on Yankees Double-A outfielder Juan Rivera? He's putting up pretty awesome numbers right now at the plate and supposedly has the best outfield arm in his league. I've also heard his name start to surface in trade rumors, yet I hadn't heard of him until this season. What's the skinny on him?
Rivera was hitting .320 with 14 homers and a .528 slugging percentage at Norwich, through 77 games. He moved up to Triple-A Columbus last week, and is hitting .250 so far through four games.
Rivera was signed as a free agent in 1996 out of Venezuela. He did well in rookie ball in 1998, but was mediocre in the Florida State League in '99 and '00, before blossoming this year. Rivera has excellent raw power, but occasionally struggles with command of the strike zone. He doesn't draw many walks, and I think he may have problems making contact in the major leagues, at least at first. His range is average, and as you point out he has a very stron arm.
Rivera's name is appearing in trade rumors, yes. I don't think he'll be a star, and he could end up as something of a cross between Fernando Seguignol and Sherman Obando: dangerous if you make a mistake to him, but containable with a good approach.
Anthony G. writes: It seems like Sean Burroughs is picking up were he left off before his injuries. Do you think he will get the call soon?
Burroughs has been on fire since coming off the DL. He's now hitting .335 with a .467 slugging percentage in 57 games. I think he would hit for average in the major leagues right now, but his power is still developing slowly. I'm impressed with his strike zone judgment: 24 walks and just 29 strikeouts in 212 at-bats. That's terrific contact ability for a young hitter in Triple-A.
With Phil Nevin having another good year at third base, and Ryan Klesko handling the chores at first, the Pads don't have room at a corner for Burroughs right now. If one or the other is traded down the stretch, Burroughs would be the logical replacement. In the big picture, there is no need to rush Sean. He's only 20.
He'll be fully ready for the major leagues next year, and would hold his own already if promoted. But barring an injury or trade, I don't think it will happen before September.
Park C. asks: I've been looking at the stats for a reliever for the Giants' Double-A
affiliate in Shreveport, La., Erasmo Ramirez. In 23.1 innings pitched, he has 28 strikeouts and two walks, with a 1.93 ERA. I haven't heard of him as a major prospect for the Giants, but with these stats what is holding him back from that status?
I saw Ramirez pitch a couple of weeks ago. You don't hear much about him because his fastball is average at best in terms of velocity, hitting 87-88 mph in the game I saw. But the pitch has good sinking movement, and he has a very deceptive delivery. His slider and changeup are good pitches, and obviously his command and control are top-notch.
Ramirez was an 11th-round pick in 1998, out of Cal State Fullerton. This is the first year he's pitched consistently well, and since he's not exactly a young pup, we should be a bit skeptical. However, based on personal observation as well as his numbers, I think he has a fair chance to develop into a useful bullpen lefty.
Joseph S. writes: Why doesn't Seattle prospect Denny Stark receive many nods as a potential big-league contributor? His stats before a lengthy time out because of last year's shoulder injury were quite impressive, and even more notable are his numbers for this season.
Stark was promoted to the major leagues on June 28th, a few days after Joseph asked this question. He won his first start, and is in the Mariners rotation now, replacing the struggling John Halama, who now resides in the Pacific Coast League.
Stark was 8-1 with a 2.12 ERA at Triple-A Tacoma before his promotion, with a fine K/BB ratio of 80/20 in 89 innings. You didn't hear much about him before this year due to injury problems, as well as inconsistent performances. He had a 1.97 ERA in A-ball in 1997, then spent most of '98 on the DL. He came back with a 4.40 mark in Double-A in '99, then spent most of '00 on the shelf. His K/BB ratios are also inconsistent, ranging from excellent this year and in '97 (105/33 in 91 innings), to weak in his '99 Double-A campaign (103/62 in 147 innings).
Stark's future is entirely dependent on his ability to stay off the DL. He has decent control and above-average stuff, and was on quite a roll at Tacoma. If he doesn't get hurt again, he could end up pulling a Joe Mays-type surprise season one of these years.
Jared H. asks: When I was playing ball in high school from '95-'97, I played for a class B school with 100 students. We faced a guy named Jeremy Affeldt. He had a fastball that topped 90 mph, the likes of which we never saw at that level. I see that he has climbed the Royals system to Double-A Wichita. What do you think are his odds of making the majors with the Royals?
Affeldt was a third-round pick in 1997, out of high school in Washington state. He is a thin 6-5 lefty just coming into his own. His velocity dipped a bit early in his pro career, but he's regained the zip on his fastball that he possessed in high school this season, topping 90 mph with movement. He will throw inside, and both his curveball and changeup are better this year. He was mediocre in A-ball, but is thriving in the Texas League right now, currently standing at 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 15 starts. His K/BB ratio is strong at 88/30 in 90.2 innings.
I haven't seen Affeldt yet this year, but I talk with a lot of people at Wichita and they've been very enthusiastic about him. The Royals front office considers him a well-kept secret, and he could end up seeing a bit of major-league action this September. If he stays healthy, I think he'll have a shot at the Royals rotation within a year and a half.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
| |
|
