The second half starts Thursday. I'll predict now that the Twins will win 95 games and take the AL Central by two games over Cleveland. They'll lose to the Mariners in the playoffs, four games to two. Tom Kelly will win Manager of the Year.
Let's get to the Down on the Farm mailbag.
Jordan F. asks: What do you think of Boof Bonser? Everyone thought the Giants were reaching when they took him with their first-round pick. But he appears to be tearing up the South Atlantic League with a terrific ERA, a paltry opponent's batting average and a K/BB ratio of almost 3/1. Granted the numbers are in low A-ball, but given his age, is he a legitimate prospect?
Oh, yes, Bonser is legitimate. I was skeptical about him last year. He was erratic in high school, and pitched terribly in rookie ball. But he's gained some command over his pitches this year at Hagerstown, currently standing 9-2, 2.55 in 17 starts, with 100 strikeouts in 78 innings.
Bonser throws very hard. He still needs to improve his control, as he's walking 4½ men per nine innings this year, which is too high. But compared to last year, when he posted a 6.00 ERA, he has made dramatic improvements. If he stays healthy, he will justify the Giants confidence in him.
Andrew writes: I was looking over at the Binghamton Mets (Double-A) stats, and they have four guys who are putting up good power numbers. Rob Stratton (20 homers), Earl Snyder (16 homers), Scott Hunter (15 homers) and Juan Le Bron (13 homers), respectively. Out of these four players which one has the best chance of making it to the big leagues?
This is a very diverse group. Stratton is the youngest and has the best raw power of the group, but also strikes out the most: 120 times already this year.
He might turn into Russ Branyan, but it's a less than even bet. Hunter is possibly the best athlete and has the most speed. He was promoted to Triple-A a couple of weeks ago. He has the most defensive value, but he gets hurt a lot and has horrible strike zone judgment. He looks like a reserve guy to me. Snyder is the most polished hitter of the bunch, but he is a 25-year-old first baseman in Double-A, so his prospect status is marginal. LeBron has a lot of raw power and was compared to Juan Gonzalez when he was younger. But his strike zone judgment is poor, and he's been disappointing long enough that it will be tough for him to break through.
I think Snyder is the best overall hitter, but none of these guys look likely to become major-league regulars.
Phil P. asks: My cousin is Shawn Gallagher. He is currently in the Kansas City organization. He started his career in Texas after being signed straight out of high school. What are the chances right now of him getting into the majors? Does Kansas City need him, or is there a chance he'll hook up with another team?
I've been following Gallagher since he was in high school. As a senior for New Hanover high school in North Carolina in '95, Gallagher hit .591 with 19 homers. He hit five homers in a game, and tied the national high school record with a 51-game hitting streak. The Rangers drafted him in the fifth round; he didn't go higher because scouts didn't think he could field.
Gallagher was erratic in the rookie levels, but broke through with an MVP season in the Florida State League in 1998, hitting .308 with 26 homers and 101 RBI. Interestingly, it was the only season in his career that he showed consistent strike zone judgment. He did OK in Double-A in 1999, but was injured for much of 2000 and was traded to the Expos, where he eventually drew his release. The Royals picked him up, but he's hitting just .244 at Wichita.
I saw Shawn play a few weeks ago. He has definite bat speed and power, but he is much too impatient. If he can regain the form he showed in the FSL in '98, he could contribute on the major-league level. But in the Royals system, he's stuck behind Mike Sweeney and top prospect Ken Harvey.
Mark P. writes from New Zealand: How is Travis Wilson doing in the Atlanta organization? He had a fantastic spring, batting over .400 including hitting for the cycle against the mighty Yankees. He is the first New Zealander to get so close to the majors. He came from a fast-pitch softball background and was a member of the World Champion New Zealand fast-pitch team in 1998.
Wilson started off the year in Double-A, and hit .325 in his first 31 games. But his walk rate was terrible: just three walks in 126 plate appearances. Yuck. The Braves promoted him to Triple-A anyhow, and his performance at Richmond has been appalling. He's hitting .206 in 60 games, with only three walks in 236 plate appearances.
Wilson has good athletic ability and has enough bat speed to hit in the majors. He is versatile with the glove. But unless he learns something about the strike zone and develops some discipline at the plate, he won't get much (if anything) from his natural ability at the major-league level.
Dal W. asks: What do you think about Jamal Strong? He started the season at Wisconsin, the Mariners' Class A team in the Midwest League, and was promoted in June to San Bernardino. He has been batting near or above .400 and has an on-base percentage of about .500 while also stealing several bases. Is he for real? What kind of defensive outfielder is he? If he is for real, when might he make the major-league roster?
Strong was drafted in the sixth round last year out of the University of Nebraska. I saw him in college, and I was surprised that he wasn't drafted three or four rounds higher than that. He is very fast, but is more polished and multi-skilled than many speed players. Since being promoted to the California League, Strong is hitting .381 with a .468 on-base percentage. He is very patient, and when you combine his ability to get on base with his blazing speed (16 steals in 33 games), you get a potent leadoff force.
Yes, he's for real. Defensively, his arm is weak and not always accurate. But he has terrific range and generally acquits himself well in center field. If his bat holds up in Double-A and Triple-A next year (I think it will), he'll be in line for a major-league role at some point in 2003.
Mark N. writes: I haven't been able to find an update on the status of third baseman Tripper Johnson, who was selected by the Orioles in the 2000 draft. His name does not seem to appear in the roster stats of any of the O's farm teams (at least that I've been able to find on the Web).
I received numerous inquiries from concerned Orioles fans about Johnson this spring. He was a supplemental first-round pick last year out of high school in Washington state, then hit .306 in rookie ball. But he attended extended spring training camp in April and May, which is why you couldn't find him on any full-season rosters.
He is currently playing with the Bluefield Orioles in the Appalachian League. Through 14 games, he is hitting just .143 with no extra-base hits. He has a decent swing and good bat speed, but he doesn't control the strike zone well. Johnson pitched a lot in high school, and given his age it's far too early to give up on him based on such a limited sample. Of course, its also too early to get overly excited about him based on his rookie ball numbers last year as well.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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