First, a correction. I wrote last week that Baltimore Orioles prospect Tripper Johnson, a third baseman, pitched a lot in high school before he was drafted last year. Several readers, including his high school pitching coach, wrote in to inform me that wasn't correct. He was mostly a third baseman in high school, and his time on the mound was quite limited.
The mistake is mine, of course. I apologize for the research error.
The Twins signed first-round pick and overall No. 1 selection Joe Mauer to a contract on Wednesday. I imagine that we'll see some of the other top picks sign relatively quickly now that a benchmark has been set.
Now, on to the mailbag.
Rick M. writes: A few years after Puerto Ricans were included in the U.S. amateur draft, a baseball columnist wrote that some people in baseball believed that the expansion of the draft hurt the development of Puerto Ricans. The reasoning was that players from Puerto Rico were less physically developed and were
less exposed to organized baseball due to the lower living standards on the island. Signing 16-year-olds allowed MLB teams to help young players overcome these disadvantages through better nutrition and training.
The article cited the fact that after the draft was instituted there was a drop off in the
development of Puerto Ricans. I think Pudge Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez had just made the majors before the draft was expanded, and there haven't been greats like them since. Do you think this theory is valid? Has there been a drop off in Puerto Rican talent, regardless of the cause? If this theory is true, would an expansion of the draft process to other countries have a similar negative effect, especially in places like the Dominican Republic?
Good question, very good question. I wrote about the possible extension of the draft process to other countries a few weeks ago, and you can bet that the Puerto Rican experience is something that's being discussed behind closed doors as the concept is evaluated.
There is no question that the talent flow from Puerto Rico fell off during the 1990s. Part of that is probably cyclical. While it is true that Puerto Rico was extremely productive during the 1970s and 1980s, it is still an island with less than four million people on it. Ups-and-downs in talent flow would be normal. There are signs that the talent flow is improving the last few years, and while there aren't any superstars from Puerto Rico on the immediate horizon, there have been a better number of decent prospects lately. Also, we're seeing a larger number of Puerto Rican high school kids coming to the mainland U.S. to play college ball, or in some cases finish their high school careers here, often in Florida.
Now, all that said, experts on Puerto Rico do believe that the institution of the draft had a negative effect, and was at least partially responsible for the decline in talent. Whether or not that would happen in the Dominican Republic remains to be seen. Baseball is extremely popular in Puerto Rico, but in the Dominican it's a complete cultural obsession, and the only potential way for many kids to make a decent living for themselves. The Dominican Republic also has a population of more than eight million, so there is a larger pool of potential talent from which to draw.
So to answer your question, it is possible that the expansion of the draft to the Dominican Republic and the rest of the world could have a negative effect. But it's hard to speculate about what will happen until we know more about how such a draft would be structured and administered, especially in relation to the baseball academies that many teams already maintain in the Dominican and Venezuela.
John from San Francisco asks: I've seen Pedro Feliz bat 100 times and he looks completely lost. What do you think of his long-term potential? I've wondered if the answer at third base could be Rich Aurilia beginning in 2002. Would Triple-A Fresno's Cody Ransom be ready next year at short and do you think Aurilia could make the transition to third?
Feliz has been awful. I thought he had a chance to be Rookie of the Year, but that was damn foolish of me considering his horrible strike zone judgment. I guess I was right about a third baseman winning the award in the NL; I just had the wrong one. Feliz has some long-term potential as a Russ Davis-type, provided he learns to draw a walk more than once a month.
Generally speaking, if a guy can play shortstop, he can also play third. Moving Aurilia to third base would be a viable option if they feel that Ransom is ready to handle the shortstop job. Ransom can field, but his hitting is very erratic. He's hit 13 homers for Fresno, but his strike zone judgment is very inconsistent and he won't hit for much of an average. Other long-term third base candidates in the Giants system include Tony Torcato, who is playing a lot of outfield this year, and Lance Niekro, who is injured.
If Ransom hits, then moving Aurilia to third would make sense. But I have questions about Ransom's ability to hit major-league pitching.
Cassidy T. writes: Do you think Kit Pellow deserves to be in the majors?
He's been tearing it up in the minors for the Royals for years. Why isn't he in the majors?
Pellow is hitting .304 with 15 homers for Omaha in the Pacific Coast League. He hit 22 bombs for Omaha last year, but his batting average was below .250. Pellow has genuine power, but his appeal is limited because his strike zone judgment is weak (only 20 walks this year) and he strikes out a lot. His batting averages and on-base percentages fluctuate. He played third base in previous seasons, but erratic defense moved him over to first this year. Plus, he's 27 years old, so it is easy for GMs and scouts to dismiss him as just a journeyman.
That said, he could probably do fair work as a DH/first base/pinch-hitter type. He's better than some guys who have jobs, and is at least worthy of a cup of coffee or two.
Charlie M. asks: Just wondering your opinion on Rafael Soriano, the Mariners pitching prospect who was just promoted to Double-A. His stats in A-ball were awesome as he seemed plain unhittable. He does have a bit of trouble with his control, not surprising since he only became a pitcher a couple of years ago, but what do you see for him for the rest of this season and the future? Do you think he'll have a shot in the majors by the end of the year?
Soriano has made three starts since getting promoted to San Antonio, and has done very well. He has a 20/5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings, allowing just 13 hits and six runs. Before promotion, he was 6-3, 2.53 at Class A San Bernadino, with 98 strikeouts in 89 innings, allowing a mere 49 hits.
Absolutely, Soriano has what it takes to make it in the majors. If he does well the rest of this year in Double-A, he could get a September call-up. As you point out, his control can waiver, and I wouldn't expect him to seriously compete for a major-league job until 2003. A converted infielder, Soriano has made major strides learning to throw his 95 mph fastball and hard slider for strikes. The Mariners would be wise not to rush him, and I don't think they will.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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