I hurt my back on Wednesday afternoon. It was a stupid injury. I leaned down to pick up a cat litter box and something in my back gave way. I had to go to the doctor, and he's got me on pain-killers and muscle relaxants. I was in too much discomfort to sit at a computer on Thursday, but things are a bit better now. However, if I write something loopy, bear with me: it's the meds.
In the next couple of days I'll do a special article looking at all the prospects involved in deadline trades.
Here's the mailbag.
Lucas D. asks: What are your thoughts and opinions regarding Jason Lane of Double-A Round Rock? I believe he will be yet another star outfielder for the Astros. Am I wrong to think this?
Lane is destroying the Texas League, hitting .333 with 29 homers and 100 RBI ... in 101 games! He's also stolen 12 bases, has a .639 slugging percentage and a .422 on-base percentage. He is also a good defensive outfielder, and his work ethic and personality draw praise from scouts and coaches.
Lane also played well last year in the Midwest League, hitting .299 with 23 homers and 104 RBI, but he's really blossomed this year. He was a sixth-round pick from USC in '99, and actually had better overall numbers than teammate and eventual first-round pick Eric Munson. But scouts liked Munson better. Go figure.
Anyhow, I do think Lane is for real, and I think he'll become a minor star. He has good plate discipline, shows both power and speed, and works his tail off. His only "weakness" is the fact that he is 24, having been drafted as a senior rather than a junior. Thus, he has less development time ahead of him than a lot of top prospects. But I see no reason to believe that he won't hit, and hit well, in the major leagues.
Brian B. writes: Cubs prospect Mike Meyers always seems to win, have a good ERA and an excellent H/IP ratio, yet he is never mentioned as a prospect in the Cubs system. I know that there are some pitchers with some outstanding potential in their system, but his name is always left out. He has to be doing
something right to not only keep winning but keeping hitters off the bases like he does. Is there another reason that he is not looked at as more of a future major leaguer? If the Cubs are high on him they sure are keeping it a secret.
If Meyers were with a different organization, he would get more attention. The Cubs, however, have a lot of hard-throwing pitchers in their system, who rank ahead of Meyers due to better velocity. Meyers can hit 90 mph, but these other guys (Juan Cruz, Wilton Chavez, Ben Christensen, Ruben Quevedo, Carlos Zambrano) are 3-5 mph above that.
Meyers relies more on his curveball and changeup than his fastball. He is pitching well at Triple-A Iowa, and is likely to get a September call-up. I think he is a good prospect, but because his margin for error is less than these other guys, he will get less attention and probably fewer chances as well.
Travis A. writes: I know that Josh Hamilton and Joe Kennedy are the "golden" boys" in the Devil Rays organization, however I feel Carl Crawford may be the best prospect. What do you feel about this really young phenom, and does he have what it takes to be the next Kenny Lofton?
Unlike Josh Hamilton, who bombed in his first Double-A exposure this spring, Carl Crawford is holding his own at Orlando. He's hitting .275 with 29 steals, showing his great legs as well as some gap power. But his strike zone judgment needs work: his OBP is only .329, quite inadequate for a leadoff hitter, as he's drawn just 27 unintentional walks.
I love his speed, but unless he learns to take more pitches and get on base more often, he'll be a disappointment, and certainly no Kenny Lofton. That said, given the fact that he skipped a level, comes from a football background, and is only 19, his progress has still been impressive. I'd like his chances if he were with an organization that stressed the strike zone.
Vickey S. asks: I keep hearing about certain teams acquiring a player from another team via the Rule 5 draft. What is this?
The Rule 5 draft takes place in December. The purpose of the draft is to help players who may be trapped with organizations that don't appreciate them or who don't have a spot for them to get a chance with another team.
When a player signs a minor-league contract with an organization, his clock for Rule 5 eligibility begins. If a guy signs out of college, he gets three years on his clock. If he signs out of high school, he gets four years. When his time expires, he must be placed on the major-league 40-man roster. If he doesn't get placed on the 40-man, he becomes eligible for Rule 5.
If the player is taken in the Rule 5 draft, the player selecting him gives the player's original team $50,000. The player must stick on the selecting team's 25-man roster for the entire season, or else he must be offered back to the original club for $25,000.
In theory, it helps guys keep from getting trapped with one team. In reality, it doesn't quite work that way, since many teams have a bad habit of picking someone relatively useless in the draft. Many clubs like to draft raw players from A-ball under Rule 5, guys who would be better off playing an entire year in the minors rather than spending it on a major-league bench.
Justin C. writes: I remember the Padres drafting Mark Phillips out of high school last year. He was a lefty that threw about 95-96 mph. I recently saw a Padres draft report, and it showed him as not having played yet this year. What's the deal, is it contract issues, is he hurt? And if he's started playing, how's he looking and is that 95 mph legit?
Phillips was assigned to extended spring training this spring, due to his lack of playing experience. He came from high school in Pennsylvania, which is a fine state but doesn't offer the same sort of amateur baseball programs that you can find in Florida or California. Thus, the Padres felt it prudent to get Phillips as much extra attention and training as possible before throwing him into the pro fires.
It seems to have worked. Phillips started off in the short-season Northwest League this June, and did very well in four starts with Eugene: 3-1, 3.75 ERA, 19 strikeouts and just 16 hits in 22 innings. He then moved up to Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, and has been even more impressive: 3-0, 0.93 in three starts, with 17 strikeouts and just 10 hits in 19 innings.
He throws 92-95 mph, and shows the potential for an above-average curveball. He is refining his command and control, but you have to love this kind of stuff from a lefty. He reminds some people of a young Eric Milton, and could put up similar numbers in the long run, if he stays healthy of course.
Judd C. asks: What are the Royals going to do with Ken Harvey? I saw him at the University of Nebraska and he couldn't play any position other than first base (and even there he was shaky). But he's a .280/.350/.425 player if he were in the majors right now. You have to believe that the Royals will sign Mike Sweeney long term (otherwise, why am I supporting this team?), so that leaves only DH for a 24-year-old. And, with Jermaine Dye, Mark Quinn, Carlos Beltran, and Dee Brown in the outfield, the Royals already have a DH. So, can Harvey field a position? And, is this the "real" reason the Royals are likely to trade Dye on or about July 31st?
The Dye trade, which happened a few days after Judd's question arrived, is an indicator that they really like Harvey. Word from K.C. is that Harvey will probably be the DH next year, with Quinn, Beltran, and Brown in the outfield. It's also said that the Royals are committed to keeping Sweeney around.
Harvey is definitely a hitter, and I agree that he can hit .280 in the majors right now, although I'd put his potential slugging percentage more in the .480 range. I'm certain he will hit. Although Harvey is a big guy, he is a decent defensive first baseman, with soft hands and surprisingly good mobility. But his best role will probably be as a DH, if for no other reason than manager Tony Muser doesn't appear to like fat guys very much.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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