If you've never been to the Arizona Fall League, it is a great place to check out prospects, as well as catch some last warm sun before the cold winter chills set in. To make the experience complete, consider signing up for the Baseball HQ Arizona Fall League Fantasy Baseball Symposium. It runs from Nov. 2-4, and you can find out more about it at: http://www.baseballhq.com/afl2001/index.htm.
There will be several top-notch speakers at the conference, including Jim Callis of Baseball America, John Hunt and Mat Olkin of Baseball Weekly, Ron Shandler, and myself. They have an early bird rate, so check it out!
Now, to the Mailbag!
I gave a brief "Hot Prospect of the Week" tip last week and recommended that you buy Kenny Baugh stock. He was the Tigers' first-round pick this year, and is doing quite well in Double-A already. I received several interesting responses. Here are two.
John Manuel of Baseball America writes: Kenny Baugh has already thrown more than 200 IP counting college this year. Sell! Sell!
John is right. Between college at Rice and his work in the Tigers system this year, Baugh has a lot of mileage on his arm. Will it hurt him? Maybe, maybe not. Baugh is an efficient pitcher with good mechanics. He doesn't waste pitches and generally knows what he is doing on the mound. Also, as a senior, he has an extra year of physical maturity compared to most guys coming out of college ball.
Those factors help mitigate the risk, but they don't eliminate it. The Tigers should exercise caution in how they handle Baugh. They shouldn't let him pitch in winter ball or the Arizona Fall League (indeed, the Tigers just announced that they've shut him down for the year), and I wouldn't push him too hard next year. I still love him; anyone who handles Double-A within two months of joining pro ball has a lot going for him. But no pitcher comes with a guarantee.
Todd S. asks: How does Baugh compare to J.D. Martin of the Indians? He is just in rookie ball, but Martin has a 1.55 ERA and a 63-8 K/BB ratio! Would you issue a "buy" recommendation for him at this point?
Martin has been a huge hit since signing as a supplemental first-round pick in June. He is utterly dominating the Appalachian League, has thrown two no-hitters, and generally is making the hitters look silly.
While Martin is a terrific prospect, at this stage Baugh carries less risk. Baugh throws harder than Martin: 90-93 mph compared to 87-89. It is true that Martin has a great deal of "projectability." He is 6-3, but weighs just 160 pounds. Add maturity and muscle to his body, and his fastball should increase. A better fastball, combined with his already excellent secondary pitches and ability to change speeds would make Martin one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
But it hasn't happened yet. Baugh is four years older than Martin, has a proven health record, and has pitched well against better competition. I love both these guys, and if they stay healthy both should be fine pitchers. While Martin's ceiling may be higher, Baugh has a better chance to make it, since he is older, more experienced, and more proven.
To stick with the stock analogy, Martin is like a young start-up company, with a great future ahead of it but little in the way of a track record. Whether you invest in that or not depends on your own style. You could get a big payoff, but you could also lose your shirt if the company runs out of capital or the pitcher blows out his elbow. Sure, I'll issue a "buy" for Martin, but with a higher risk assessment than Baugh. I wouldn't recommend him for conservative investors.
Dave J. writes: Have the Red Sox given up on Dernell Stenson as a prospect? He seems to be making absolutely no progress after three years at Triple-A Pawtucket. His
power numbers have stayed flat. He certainly can't play in the field. Is he just another good low minors hitter who couldn't make the grade as he advanced?
And how about Tony Blanco at Class A Augusta in the Sally League? His bat seems to have perked up considerably in the second half of the season, but he strikes out at a tremendous rate. He has youth on his side, but is his lack of strike zone judgment going to do him in?
I have been very disappointed in Stenson, as have the Red Sox. As you point out, he's made no progress in Triple-A. His numbers this year looks just like his numbers in 2000 and 1999, if not a bit worse.
Stenson hit 24 homers and drew 84 walks in Double-A in 1998 at age 20. Most people who show that kind of ability at that level and at that age develop into useful major-league players, if not stars or superstars. But Stenson has been stagnant. In some ways, he's actually deteriorated. His walk rate is down this year, and that is never a good sign.
It is too early to say that he is finished as a prospect, however. He is still just 23 years old, and scouts still say he has enormous potential with the bat. I do think a change of scenery may be needed for him to fulfill his potential however.
As for Blanco, he does have 16 homers at Augusta, but has drawn only 17 walks all year. He has hit better lately as you point out, but the weak plate discipline which didn't hurt him in rookie ball is taking a toll this year. He doesn't turn 20 until November, so we can't really draw any broadly negative conclusions at this point. But he does need to improve his pitch recognition if he wants to repeat the gaudy numbers of 2000 in the future.
Brian K. asks: Now that Adam Dunn is in the majors, what do you think about the Reds' minor-league pitching "jewels": Ty Howington and Dustin Moseley. Howington has just been promoted to Double-A, and Moseley seems to be turning the corner at Class A Dayton. How do you rate these two pitchers?
Howington has made huge progress this year, harnessing his 95 mph fastball and throwing more consistent strikes with his curveball. He made rapid progress through the Midwest and California Leagues this year, but while he has a 2.08 ERA in five starts for Double-A Chattanooga, he's also walked 17 in 30 innings. He'll have to improve his control further as he closes in on the majors, and a steady consolidation season would be in order for him next year. I like his potential as a power southpaw, but like all young pitchers he'll have to prove he can stay healthy. I'd give him a Grade B right now, or perhaps a B+.
Moseley has less impressive numbers at Dayton (4.29 ERA in 23 starts), but draws raves for his command, control, decent fastball and terrific feel for pitching. Scouts like his projectability, but I want to see better overall numbers before going all-out with sabermetric enthusiasm. His control is good, but his strikeout rate is below average for the Midwest League, with 94 whiffs in 134 innings. He's also allowed 144 hits, but at age 19 he is holding his own reasonably well.
Brian V. writes: What do you think is going to happen with the catching situation in Detroit? Brandon Inge is supposedly the catcher of the future, but Mike Rivera is having a breakout year at Double-A Erie. Not much is being mentioned about Rivera. Is he a legitimate prospect, or should the Tigers just hope Inge can learn to hit?
The Tigers and many scouts like Inge because of his athleticism, work ethic, and potentially excellent defense. But he has never hit professional pitching very well. The guy has a career minor league batting average of .243, a career slugging percentage of .409, and a career on-base percentage of .311. There is no evidence that he'll hit major-league pitching, and given his weak strike zone judgment I don't think he'll be the type who "learns to hit."
Rivera has exploded this year for 33 homers at Erie. He's always hit for decent power, but this is the first time since rookie ball that he has truly dominated a league. He turns 25 next month, so he is older than Inge, but his bat is clearly better. His glove is not as well-regarded, but his defense isn't horrible. If he keeps hitting, he'll play. His strike zone judgment isn't great, so I can't say that he'll take the league by storm, but he should provide sufficient power to be a Jim Leyritz-type. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Rivera had a longer and more productive career than Inge.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
| |
|
