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| Monday, September 17 Will Griffin and Almonte make it in pinstripes? By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
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My job is to think about baseball, but like just about everyone else on the planet, I've spent most of the last several days obsessed about things other than sports. Big things. Important things. War. Death. Destruction. Fear. Hatred. But also Justice, Love, Redemption, Mercy, Compassion. It would be easy -- indeed, human -- to focus solely on the desire for blind vengeance at this time, to vent our anger at those within our communities who are different. But if we do that, if we live in fear, if we let ourselves become blind bigots, then we let the bad guys win. Sport is a deep thread in the tapestry of our National life, and it has always been there through crises mild and monstrous. The Nazis couldn't stop baseball, and neither will the new set of bad guys. Baseball and other sports can help bring us together in this time of trial. We need to remember the things that really matter, but we can't let ourselves be paralyzed either. I have many other thoughts about this issue. If you'd like to read them, you can find a brief article I wrote about Tuesday's events and our response to them here. My submission is the second one on the page, so read down a bit to find it. I also encourage everyone to read this article from Stars and Stripes. The world will try to get back to something approaching normal this week. With the idea that Down on the Farm might be a useful distraction, let's dig into the mailbag, focusing today on the two New York teams as well as Baltimore. New Yorkers and Washingtonians, the thoughts and prayers of the entire country, indeed the world, are with you. Alan R. writes: What do you know about the Yankees' top pick, John-Ford Griffin? His plate discipline looks terrific and he hit a lot of doubles at Staten Island, though not many homers, which I suppose means little at this point in his career. With the age on the big-league team I'd love to see Griffin move up quickly. What's his upside? What major leaguer is he comparable to? In 66 games for Staten Island, Griffin hit .311 with a .454 slugging percentage and a .413 on-base percentage. He is a left-handed hitter with a short, sharp stroke, as well as excellent plate discipline and adequate defensive skills at an outfield corner. About the only question is his power. His power is to the gaps now, but given his natural strength and his strike zone judgment, he should eventually be good for 20+ homers per season. The best comparison I think for Griffin is Paul O'Neill in his prime. He'll hit for a high average, get on base a lot, and produce above-average power. If he advances as quickly as the Yanks expect, you could see him in 2003. Jon P. asks: I'm curious to know what you think of Earl Snyder, a first baseman for the Binghamton Mets. He's 25 now, so he's about as old as one would like to see a Double-A player. He has progressed nicely through the Mets' system after being a 36th-round pick out of the University of Hartford, where he broke Jeff Bagwell's career HR record. Snyder finished with a .281 average, 20 homers, a .526 slugging percentage and a .374 on-base percentage for Binghamton this year. Twenty-five is actually old for Double-A, but it was his first shot at the level and he handled it well. He strikes out a lot (111 in 114 games) and the big question that scouts have about him is his ability to make contact enough to make his power meaningful. He does draw a fair amount of walks (58), but there is concern that he chases pitches outside the strike zone too often, and will struggle against advanced pitching. Snyder has certainly earned a full shot in Triple-A next year. He could sneak into a Brian Daubach-type job at some point if he gets the chance, but I don't think he'll be a star. SportsFanatic writes: I know Pete Walker is about 30, but his numbers for the last two years in Triple-A have been phenomenal -- last year as a reliever in Colorodo Springs, and this year as a starter with Norfolk. I know the Mets' big-league pitching has been pretty good and maybe this is why he is still stuck in AAA, but I would think he would have great value. Any idea why he is not in the "Show?" Walker is 32; that's the main reason he wasn't in the Show much this year. Most teams won't give a pitcher with a "Quadruple-A" label much of a chance, especially if he is on the wrong side of 30. Walker finished 13-4 with a 2.99 ERA for Norfolk, and he did get a September call-up. His stuff is marginal, but when he throws strikes he can be effective, although he has struggled in limited major-league action before this year. I do not think he would be of "great value" as you suggest, but there are worse pitchers in the major leagues, and Walker could be a decent contributor in the 10th or 11th spot for some staffs. Matthew R. asks: What do you think about Yankees prospect Erick Almonte? He appears to be having a good year at Triple-A -- decent power for a middle infielder and good all-around offensive stats. Is he a potential starter in the majors, or will his role be a 2B-SS-3B utility type (which would fit in well with the Yankees needs starting next year ... )? Almonte hit .287 with 12 homers in 97 games for Columbus this year. In the past, I have been very skeptical about him. He hit .271 with 15 homers for Norwich in '00, but with a horrible 35/129 BB/K ratio. I was afraid that he would struggle against Triple-A pitching due to this weak strike zone judgment, but he made significant adjustments this year, raising his walk rate while cutting the strikeouts. He set a career-high with 44 walks this year, and not coincidentally his production went up across the board. He'll have to maintain that to be productive in the majors, but the Yankees stress plate discipline more than most teams, and he seems to be listening. He needs more polish with the glove, but has the natural talent to handle all the infield positions. With the Yanks he probably does fit best as a utility type, but with some teams he could be considered a future starter. Jon S. writes: I'm a big Orioles fan and had kept hearing that the farm was dry after trading away all their prospects over the past few years. But it seems to me there are a few guys having great seasons, especially pitchers. Do you have an opinion on Erik Bedard, John Stephens or Richard Stahl?. Also curious for your thoughts on Keith Reed -- he has hit very well since being promoted to Rochester. The Orioles system is in better shape than it was five or six years ago, no doubt. They've still made their share of mistakes even in recent years, with some questionable draft decisions, and giving up on prospects like Jayson Werth (and probably Calvin Pickering) too readily. But there is some talent here. Stahl has the highest ceiling of the guys you mentioned, but has to prove he can stay healthy. Bedard and Stephens (along with Rick Bauer and Sean Douglass) have decent chances to develop into useful major-league pitchers, although I don't see any of the group in the stardom category at this point. I like Reed's athleticism and he has "five tool" potential, but his strike zone judgment can be shaky at times and I'm not sure if he's a "Seven Skill" guy just yet. Don't forget Tim Raines Jr., who flies like the wind and made major strides with the bat this year. Larry Bigbie could also develop into an interesting bat. I don't see any obvious future stars in the system, but there are several guys with chances to help. The Orioles don't have an elite farm system yet, but things are better than they used to be ... not that that is saying much. Chester N. asks: What's your take on Orioles and Delmarva first baseman Rick Elder? Elder got off to a blistering start, hitting over .350 for the first two months of the season before cooling down considerably. He ended up at .251 with 16 homers and 63 walks for Delmarva. He is a left-handed hitter with considerable raw power, but he strikes out so much that scouts worry about his contact at higher levels. He fanned 130 times in 112 games this year. Elder is sometimes compared to Diamondbacks prospect Jack Cust. Both are slow left-handed sluggers with high strikeout rates and great power potential, but Cust's walk rate is higher than Elder's. Elder is 21, and missed most of the 2000 season with an elbow injury, so he does have significant growth potential. He is another Orioles prospect with a chance to be interesting, but he isn't a sure thing.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. |
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