Next week, I'll be attending the Arizona Fall League Fantasy Baseball Symposium, sponsored by Baseball HQ. I'll send you a report about what I see and hear there, but for now I want to take a look at early results from the AFL.
The Arizona Fall League is a great training ground for prospects. The level of competition there is at least as good as Double-A, and probably higher. It is certainly more competitive than instructional league or minor-league spring training, and the environment is more conducive to coaching and instruction than traditional winter ball.
There are six teams in the league. Let's take a look at some of the prospects on three of these teams. We will look at the second trio of clubs in a separate article on Friday.
Grand Canyon Rafters
Marlon Byrd, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
So far, he's proving that his fine season in Double-A was no fluke, hitting .354 in his first 19 games. I am a bit worried about 13 strikeouts and just three walks, but of course at this point the sample size is too small to worry about. His plate discipline in the minors has been decent but not terrific, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out in Triple-A and the majors.
He could see considerable playing time for the Phillies next year.
Mike Cuddyer, 3B-OF, Minnesota Twins
Playing third base for Grand Canyon, which is intriguing since he is supposed to be in line for an outfield job next year in Minnesota. Hitting .352 through 14 games, though with just one walk. Again, the sample is too small, and strike zone judgment has not been a problem for him in the past.
Austin Kearns, OF, Cincinnati Reds
A wrist injury ruined Kearns' season in Double-A, so a good performance in Arizona will do much to restore his stock as a top prospect. I am optimistic, due to his previous strong performances. So far, he is doing very well in Arizona, hitting .353 with three homers and 20 RBI in 20 games. His strike zone judgment has been excellent: 12 walks, 13 strikeouts in 68 at-bats.
Ty Howington, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Howington made huge progress in 2001, learning to throw his 94 mph fastball to spots in the strike zone, while also refining his breaking pitch and adding a better changeup. He's in Arizona to consolidate his progress against good competition, though so far the results are mixed. In four starts, he's allowed 15 hits, five walks, and 10 runs in 17 innings. Again, the important thing at this stage is not the specific numbers, but rather continued progress in refining his mechanics and getting game experience against good competition.
Jeff Urban, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Urban is a 6-8 southpaw, but is more like Lee Guetterman than Randy Johnson. His velocity is average, but he can get people out when he is mixing his pitches well and throwing strikes. He has walked just three in 16 innings thus far, but has also given up 23 hits. I hope to see him in action personally, so I can try and get a feeling for how his stuff will hold up at higher levels.
Maryvale Saguaros
Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Crawford is a tools monster with blazing speed. His swing may never allow him to hit for much power (he is strong, but is more of a line-drive gap hitter), but he can really motor, and has swiped nine bases already in 16 games, with just one caught stealing to his demerit. He is also hitting .385. He'll have to keep working on his plate discipline in order to be a truly valuable leadoff hitter, but he is still quite young (20) and has lots of time to improve.
J.R. House, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
I was disappointed in House's mediocre numbers in Double-A this year, but he is doing just fine in early AFL action, hitting .294 with five doubles and two homers in 19 games. His 19 strikeouts are high, but he's already walked six times, and strike zone judgment was his biggest flaw earlier this year. The Pirates have a poor record helping young hitters develop, so hopefully this is the start of a positive trend.
Tim Raines Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles
Raines Jr. got to the major leagues sooner than expected this year, getting to play alongside his father. It wasn't just nepotism; he is a legitimate prospect, and did improve in 2001, showing more pop than in previous seasons, to go with his fine speed. He is hitting just .160 so far for Maryvale, but he often gets off to slow starts. He's drawn nine walks in 59 plate appearances, so I'm not worried about him.
Keith Reed, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Reed will compete with Raines for spots in the Orioles outfield over the next two years, but like Tim, Keith is struggling so far in Arizona, hitting just .174 in 17 contests. He has great athletic ability, but his pro performance has been erratic. Reed has a physical ceiling that attracts scouts, and like Raines, he hit better this year than in previous campaigns. He has less speed, but more power potential.
Jason Standridge, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Standridge is thought to be one of Tampa's best pitching prospects, but he struggled in Triple-A this year, posting a 5.28 ERA and a horrible 48/50 K/BB ratio. He throws hard, but had trouble changing speeds and keeping experienced minor-league hitters off-balance. He is in Arizona to work on those issues, but so far his results are mixed: 12 hits, seven walks, and seven runs in 12 innings. He has the arm strength to succeed, but does have the pitching refinement?
Mesa Solar Sox
Joe Borchard, OF, Chicago White Sox
No one doubts Borchard's power potential; he draws comparisons to Mark McGwire. But there are concerns about his ability to make consistent contact against good pitching. Joe will take a walk, but he also fanned 158 times in 133 games in Double-A. He also hit .295, and while I'm not as paranoid about strikeouts as some people, I admit I'd like to see his strikeouts drop a bit. He is hitting .156 through 14 games, with five walks but 10 strikeouts in 55 plate appearances.
Nic Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
A little-noticed outfielder with good power from the left side and speed potential, Jackson broke out with a strong campaign in the Florida State League in 2001. He is 11-for-33 (.333) through 10 games for Mesa, and if he continues to hit against good AFL competition, he will position himself for a rapid advance up the Cubs farm ladder in '02.
Earl Snyder, 1B, New York Mets
Mets fans want to know: is this guy a legitimate prospect? He played well in Double-A this year, despite the fact that many scouts thought he would struggle against better pitching. He has power, but fit more in the "minor-league slugger" category before this year. Snyder is hitting .306 with a .653 slugging percentage through 14 games. If he maintains strong production in the AFL, he will get more attention next year. He reminds me somewhat of Bubba Trammell.
Mario Valenzuela, OF, Chicago White Sox
Another guy who gets little attention, but has played well at every level thus far. He is battering AFL pitching, hitting .375 with an .813 slugging percentage through 14 games. He is another guy I really want to see next week. His minor-league numbers are reminiscent of Magglio Ordonez's.
Pat Strange, RHP, New York Mets
Strange gets praise as one of the better prospects in the Mets system, but I am starting to have some doubts. He throws hard, but his numbers since reaching Double-A last year are mediocre, and there are questions about his durability. His mechanics are awkward, and many people think he is an injury waiting to happen. He's fanned 12 so far in 10 innings, but has also allowed seven walks, 13 hits, and nine runs.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
