Do you believe in karma? One must admit that the current standings of contraction targets Montreal and Minnesota, as well as contraction beneficiary Milwaukee, lend credence to the theory of karmic balance. It is unfortunate, of course, that innocent Brewers fans suffer for the sins of the shadow owner. But at least Twins and Expos enthusiasts are happy. We already know that the Twins are for real; hopefully they can get through their current injury troubles. As for the Expos, their hitting attack seems much improved, at least in part due to better patience at the plate. Even Vlad Guerrero is walking more this year, boosting his numbers from excellent to super-superb. If the pitching holds up, they could be as surprising this year as the Twins were last year.

Let's hit the mailbag.

Eric S. writes: We've heard plenty about Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley, but who do you like from San Diego's 'second tier' of pitching prospects, the guys like Ben Howard, Mark Phillips and Oliver Perez? Where do you think they'll slot in to the 2005 Padres pitching staff?

I think the Padres farm system is a well-kept secret. They are often not mentioned when top organizations are discussed (I'm as guilty of that as anyone), but they've made huge strides over the last five years bringing talent into the system. They now have a strong stable of both pitchers and hitters, and must rank in the top tier of organizations by any fair metric.

Peavy and Tankersley get some press, but as you point out there are other arms to like. Phillips was a 2000 first-round pick. He is a hard-throwing lefty with a big curveball, but he lost some ground last year when he reported to camp overweight and out-of-shape. He came back in the second half after working the fat off, and did quite well, ending the year with 35 strikeouts in 28 innings in the California League. He returned there this month, and his control is giving him problems. He has a 15/13 K/BB mark in his first 17 innings, with an ERA in excess of 6.00, but it's too early to be truly concerned. He could be an ace if all goes well.

Perez is another southpaw, a 20-year old signed out of Mexico. Like Phillips, he throws in the 90s, but he uses a slider rather than a curve. His command is better than Phillips', but his overall ceiling probably isn't as high. He is throwing well at Lake Elsinore, and will likely move up before Phillips does.

Howard is part of the All Prospect Starting Rotation at Double-A Mobile. He has the best raw velocity in the Padres farm system, capable of hitting 99 mph. He learned to throw strikes last year, while polishing up his slider and changeup. Howard has a 1.50 ERA in four starts so far this season, and if he continues to throw strikes, he will rank right up there with Peavy and Tankersley pretty quickly.

We can't predict who will be where in 2005, of course. Someone will get hurt, or lose their command, or something.

Matthew H. asks: I am forced to suffer being an Orioles fan. I know Larry Bigbie is not a rookie (and therefore is not in the Minor League Scouting Notebook), but if he were what would his grade and analysis be?

Bigbie played in 47 games for the Orioles last year, collecting 131 at-bats and hitting .229. He's off to a good start for Triple-A Rochester this year, hitting .356 through 18 games, with a .426 OBP and a .492 SLG. I think Bigbie is a pretty fair line-drive hitter, probably capable of hitting .260-.280 in the major leagues with some doubles and a decent number of walks. I don't think he has enough over-the-fence power to be a regular outfielder, but he is better than some guys who have bench jobs. For me, he slots in best as a reserve outfielder/pinch-hitter. The fact that he is a left-handed hitter also helps. I'd have given him a C: a useful role player.

Amol M. writes: From a recent mailbag, in regards to Wily Mo Pena and Sammy Sosa, you wrote:

"Few players with very poor strike zone judgment like the young Sammy improve as much as he has."

While I certainly agree with the sentiment, I have to wonder whether this will continue to be the case. With more teams advocating plate discipline throughout their farm systems, doesn't it stand to reason that we'll be seeing more and more young, free-swinging players turn into mature, patient ones? Do you think that Pena, at the age of 19, would have a better shot at improving like Sosa has if he were still in the Yankees system? Or the A's?

This is a very good question, and here is a similar one.

Jeff in Denver asks: I know it is early, but I just checked out the stats for the Carolina Mudcats, and my jaw dropped. Choo Freeman has busted out of the gate, hitting .386, slugging .649, and drawing 13 walks in 70 plate appearances. What is going on? Is it possible that he, at the age of 23, could have possibly learned the strike zone, and could he have a nice career in Colorado?

It is clear that more teams are adopting the Athetics/Yankees approach of emphasizing plate discipline. The Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins, Expos, and even more "traditional" clubs like the Red Sox and Royals are starting to emphasize it more. Shea Hillenbrand was quoted recently to the effect that no one ever mentioned strike zone judgment to him until this spring, and that he was now consciously working to improve his plate discipline. It seems to be working so far for him.

The early success of guys like Hillenbrand in the majors and Freeman in the minors, raises an intriguing question: can someone learn the strike zone just by trying? Is strike zone judgment an organic thing that people just seem to be born with, like arm strength or bat speed? Or is it something that can be cultivated at will?

This is a classic nature/nurture argument. The development of strike zone judgment is like any other human skill, sport-related or otherwise. You have to have the biological basis (the tool, if you will) to support the skill, but you also have to learn what to do with it. In baseball terms, this means having hand-eye coordination of sufficient caliber to quickly detect whether a pitch will be in the zone or not, and to take advantage of it if it is. You also have to have the proper mental/emotional structure, in terms of not being overly impulsive, of learning to control the desire to hit every pitch. And of course you have to have the work ethic, especially if it involves unlearning years of behavior.

Can anyone learn the strike zone? Yes and no. I believe that almost any player who is sufficiently motivated and properly coached can improve his strike zone judgment. But not everyone can be Barry Bonds or Ted Williams.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.