Let's hit the mailbag.

David H. asks: It occurred to me as a Phillies fan (there are still a few of us out here) reading your comments about Alfonso Soriano a couple of weeks ago was how much he reminds me of Juan Samuel. Samuel was an electric talent. He was exciting to watch and looked like a star for years to come, but after a couple of years teams learned that he couldn't lay off breaking stuff outside and down, and he was never able to adjust.

Now I don't mean to suggest that Soriano will become Juan Samuel. I highly doubt it, but early success doesn't necessarily indicate future stardom. Teams will learn how to pitch to him and he will either adjust, or his stats will reflect his failure to adjust. Of course, playing in the Yankees lineup will make it much harder to pitch around him, which gives him a lot more room for error than Samuel had with the mid-'80s Phillies.

The Samuel comparison is an instructive one. Take a look at these numbers.

Alfonso Soriano, age 23, 2001

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
158	574	77	154	34	3	18	73	29	125	43	14	.268	.304	.432	.736	92

Juan Samuel, age 23, 1984

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
160	701	105	191	36	19	15	69	28	168	72	15	.272	.307	.442	.749	107

I got these numbers from Baseball-Reference.com. The OPS+ numbers are his OPS compared to league average and adjusted for park factors, with 100 being league average.

There are significant similarities but also some differences. First, notice that Samuel had almost 130 more at-bats than Soriano did, so we have to mentally adjust for this when looking at the counting numbers. Their batting averages, slugging percentages, and on-base percentages are pretty close, though Samuel's season was actually more impressive when league and park factors are taken into account (the OPS+ number). Samuel showed more speed. But Samuel also walked at a lower rate, and struck out at a greater rate, than Soriano did. Soriano's strike zone judgment is lousy, but Samuel's was abominable.

As you point out, Samuel's inability to control the strike zone was the main reason that he didn't develop beyond his initial level of play. The same thing may happen to Soriano, though his situation isn't quite as extreme as Samuel's was. Their styles of play are quite similar, but Soriano is a touch more polished than Samuel was at the same age. That means he has a better chance to turn all those tools into skills, but it is still far from a sure thing, even with his hot start this year.

Alan R. writes: What's your take on Devil Rays prospect Seth McClung? Granted it's early, but from the numbers he's put up he seems to be emerging as an elite prospect. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and he has a 2.92 ERA as a 21-year-old in the California League. I know he throws hard, and I've read that he needs to develop his secondary pitches.

I like McClung quite a bit; the C+ grade I gave him in my book was too low. He should have ranked as a B- on the basis of his 2.79 ERA and 165/53 K/BB mark last year in the South Atlantic League. Given his sharp early numbers this year, he's at least a Grade B prospect now, and if he pitches well in Double-A (he was promoted late last week), he would likely end up as a B+ by the end of the year, and somewhere in the Top 50.

McClung has a 92-95 mph fastball. His curveball has improved and is now a plus pitch at times. His command is much better than it was earlier in his career, and he has enough stuff to dominate when he's on his game. He can also be intimidating (especially for a right-hander) given his 6-6, 235-pound frame. Seth is Tampa Bay's best pitching prospect, but I want to see how he holds up in Double-A. He should be a rotation candidate by 2004, and he has ace potential.

Joel C. writes: Have you seen anything so far this year to give you more confidence in Pirates left-handed prospect Sean Burnett's long-term future? He's still not striking out many batters, but his control is as impeccable as ever. I find Burnett intriguing not only because he's been so effective, but because he pitches like a veteran finesse pitcher even though he's only 19. So I have two questions. Given that he's still so young, doesn't he have time to get stronger and increase his velocity? And isn't the very fact that he can get people out in High Class A at age 19 a strong marker for future success?

Burnett is now 6-0, with a 1.43 ERA in eight starts for Class A Lynchburg. He's walked just eight in 44 innings, and as you point out, his control has always been exceptional. He doesn't turn 20 until September, and it seems pretty clear that he's already mastered A-ball, given this year's performance on top of his 11-8, 2.62 mark of last year in the Sally League.

Burnett's curveball and changeup are solid, and he throws strikes and changes speeds with the grace of a Charlie Leibrandt or Jimmy Key. I frankly don't think he will have any trouble during his remaining A-ball tenure, but Double-A will be the true test of his Jedi pitching skills. Will he pass the test? I'm concerned about his low strikeout rate. He's whiffed just 23 this year, and K-rate is really as strong an indicator of future potential in a pitcher -- possibly stronger -- than K/BB ratio. Note that having a high strikeout rate is not the same thing as having a hot fastball. Some guys throw hard but don't strike people out, and few of them succeed. Some guys throw soft but do strike people out, and they usually do succeed.

Will Burnett pick up some velocity and raise his K-rate? Maybe. It isn't a matter of him intentionally going for strikeouts, but rather the fact that the strikeouts are a measure of dominance. Many scouts feel that Burnett may already be as good as he's going to get, and that he won't pick up much more zip on the fastball. We'll have to see. Double-A will tell the tale.

Andrew J. writes: As a resident of Richmond, Va., I've been watching Wilson Betemit play shortstop for the Richmond Braves this year, and I can't help but notice that he's definitely not living up to the hype. He's struggling to stay above the Mendoza line. He has more strikeouts (25) than hits (24) and only eight walks. And on top of that, his defense has been ridiculous. He has absolutely no range, and has been prone to mental lapses, such as forgetting to cover a base, etc. So I was just wondering, are the Braves still high on him?

Any chance they'll trade him before all the other teams realize how bad he is? Or do you think there's actually a chance he'll improve?

Betemit is hitting .238, with a little power but few walks and a poor on-base percentage. He's also made seven errors already, so what you're seeing in person is certainly backed up by the numbers. He is not playing well.

I would not be too concerned about his long-term future. He is only 20, extremely young for Triple-A. He also has a history of slow starts, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he finished the year with strong numbers. I do worry about his strike zone judgment, but that's never been his strongest suit.

Betemit is projected to move to third base by most scouts eventually, since there are concerns about his range. Again, this concords with your observations. The mental lapses are also of concern; I've been told that he doesn't always concentrate, though again, the same can be said about many 20-year-olds. That is the real advantage he has right now: his birthday. He could end up as trade bait, but I imagine that the Braves will be very patient with him. His potential is immense, and they won't give up on him quickly.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.