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John Sickels

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Friday, June 14
Updated: April 5, 5:07 PM ET
 
Did Mariners promote Soriano to majors too fast?

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

With the draft behind us, let's go back to the regular mailbag and field some questions.

Ken K. asks: Don't you think Seattle rushed Rafael Soriano a bit? From Double-A to the starting rotation in a matter of two weeks? Wouldn't he be better off getting more seasoning in the minors?

Rafael Soriano
Starting pitcher
Seattle Mariners
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM IP W-L BB SO ERA
6 30 0-2 8 21 3.60

In all fairness, Ken submitted his question several weeks ago, just as Soriano was promoted. To be honest, I would have answered "probably" to the question at the time. Generally speaking, I'm not in favor of pushing pitchers to the major leagues with anything less than half a season of successful Triple-A pitching under their belt. Promoting Soriano directly to Seattle from Double-A sounded risky to me, but he's done very well so far for the Mariners, posting a 3.60 ERA. Anyone who has seen him pitch can attest to his nasty stuff, as well as his mound presence and fluid delivery.

Can he keep it up? In 30 innings, he's allowed just 18 hits. He's fanned 21 while walking eight. The biggest warning sign in his statistical record is six homers allowed; he really needs to keep people off base if he's going to be giving up a tater per game, but so far he's been able to do that. If he stays healthy, Soriano has a good chance to post Freddy Garcia-like numbers down the road.

Blake W. asks: I always have to really dig to get some info on the Padres and it bothers me that they don't get much coverage. I believe they will be legitimate contenders maybe as early as next season. With all of their good young arms around and management committed to not shipping people off, I think they will be a solid club in the future. What are your thoughts?

I mentioned the Padres earlier this year, but it is worth emphasizing again. They have one of the best farm systems in the game, ranking right up there with Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs. By the end of the season, they may emerge as the best overall. The Pads have no fewer than five top-flight pitching prospects (Dennis Tankersley, Jake Peavy, Ben Howard, Eric Cyr, Oliver Perez) and several other guys who look like contributors. They also have hitting depth with guys like Tagg Bozied and Xavier Nady. Their '02 draft class looks strong. Keith Scherer at Baseball Prospectus wrote an article about the Padres a few days ago which examines their pitching depth in detail. Take a look at it.

I agree with you that the future for the Padres is very bright indeed, provided they don't have some sort of unfortunate rash of prospect injuries.

Tom M. writes: Could you comment on the ability or the problems with Tigers Triple-A pitcher Mike Maroth?

Maroth was promoted to Detroit a few days ago, and pitched seven shutout innings in his first start. Originally a third-round pick of the Red Sox in 1998, this University of Central Florida product was traded to the Tigers for Bryce Florie in 1999. He has more velocity than you'd expect, given his slight 6-0, 180-pound frame, with a fastball that hits 90. His breaking pitch and changeup are decent, and he's always had good control. His statistical record is a mixed bag. He went 7-10, 4.65 with a poor 63/50 K/BB ratio last year in Triple-A. 2002 has been better: 7-1, 2.82 with a better 51/22 K/BB in 73 innings for Toledo before his promotion.

Maroth is a classic Grade C pitching prospect. He has a good arm, and he's gotten people out often enough to earn a chance, but there's nothing in either his scouting reports or his statistical profile that screams "This guy is a top prospect." The axiom that pitchers are unpredictable applies here quite strongly. K/BB is the best numeric indicator of future pitching success, and Maroth's K/BBs range from good to poor, so that doesn't really help us. I could see him developing into a solid No. 3 starter, but it's just as likely that he'll bomb out of the league once the advance scouts get a hold of him. It really could go either way, but he's earned a full shot, and the early results are positive.

Brad S. asks: I heard that the Cubs acquired a Korean catcher within the last couple years, but didn't notice anything on him in your Cubs farm system report. I am curious if you have any information on him.

You're thinking of Yoon-Min Kweon, signed as a free agent out of South Korea in 1999. He received some fanfare when he first signed, but has pretty much fallen off the prospect lists over the last year or so. Kweon is a strong defensive catcher, but his bat has not developed as hoped. He entered this season with career marks of .265/.326/.395, and is currently mired at .204/.251/.274 at Class A Daytona. Obviously that doesn't project well at higher levels. At age 23, he needs to make improvements with his bat soon. He has good physical strength, but lacks patience and has a "slow bat" that will make it hard for him to succeed against good pitching.

Tastee writes: What are your impressions of Lakewood Blue Claws (Phillies Class A team) first baseman Ryan Howard?

Howard was a fifth-round pick by the Phillies in '01, from Southwest Missouri State. A left-handed hitting slugger, Howard has significant power, with intriguing size and strength, but he needs to polish his approach. He fanned 55 times in 48 games in short-season ball after signing last year. He's striking out a bunch this year, too, whiffing 74 times in 63 games so far, though it hasn't hurt his production. He's hitting .300/.392/.528. I like his power potential, but I want to see if he can make contact against tougher pitching at higher levels. His plate discipline is mediocre, and there are concerns that he tries to pull too much.

Chris P. asks: How is Joe Mauer, the first overall pick in the '01 draft, doing? Was it a mistake for the Twins to take him instead of Mark Prior?

Mauer is doing well, hitting .313/.412/.409 so far at Class A Quad City. His power is just starting to develop, but his strike zone judgment is exceptional, and his defense behind the plate is very good. I tried to go see him myself earlier in the year, but the game I went to got rained out. I'll try again in a few weeks. Friends of mine who have seen him this year use words and phrases like "monster," "masher," "head and shoulders above the rest of the players on the field," and "man among boys" when discussing him.

The Twins didn't think they could afford Prior. Though Mauer was a Minnesota boy, choosing him was not just about signability and public relations: he was the best high school player available. He would likely have been the first player picked this year if he were a year younger, so the Twins have nothing to be ashamed of. High school catchers have horrible track records, of course, so Mauer has to fight history. But if any high school catcher can make it, it's him. His physical tools are excellent, his baseball skills are solid, he is a good athlete, he is smart, and he works hard.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.





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