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| Friday, June 21 Updated: April 5, 5:07 PM ET Who'll be better, Prior or Beckett? By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
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First, Down on the Farm would like to extend recognition to Alan Zinter, the 34-year old veteran slugger called up by the Astros this week. He was a first-round pick way back in 1989, but despite hitting for good power in Triple-A since 1994, he never got a chance in the major leagues until now. If there is a real life Crash Davis, it's Zinter, someone who refused to give up on his dream. One hopes that the Astros will give him a solid chance to show what he can do. Secondly, Down on the Farm wishes to honor the memory of Cardinals broadcaster Jack Buck, possibly my favorite baseball broadcaster of all time. If the Universe is just, he's calling a game right now ... perhaps Grover Cleveland Alexander pitching to Tris Speaker. We'll miss you, Jack. On to the mailbag. Loop asks: I was just wondering who you thought the better long term prospect is, Josh Beckett or Mark Prior? It seems like a lot of people are making a big stink about Prior and I can remember people doing the same thing last year when Beckett was the hot name. Just wondering your humble opinion on who's going to be the better big-league pitcher. Hmm. Once again, we have what I call The Classic Drew Barrymore vs. Faith Hill Philosophical Dilemma, a choice between two winners.
Both Beckett and Prior combine excellent stuff with solid command. Both have the physical, mental, and emotional attributes to be winning pitchers for the next 15 years. Both have excellent statistical records to back up their scouting reports. Both should be aces if they stay healthy. When it comes down to it, I'd pick Drew, although she isn't quite the classic beauty that Faith is. There's just that "extra" thing I like about her, nothing I can quantify. As for the pitchers, I think I'll take Prior. It's an instinctual thing; I can't pin it down exactly, or prove anything quantitatively or qualitatively. I just like Prior a bit more. Take that for what you will. Sheila C. writes: Clemson's Khalil Greene is tearing up tough college pitching, and he is said to be a fine defensive shortstop. How well do you think he'll do in the pros? Will he make it to the big leagues with San Diego? Baseball America just named Greene its College Player of the Year. He's probably my favorite player in college baseball, and I think he's going to have a fine pro career. His physical tools are decent, but wouldn't be enough for him to be a first-round pick were it not for his exceptional baseball skills. He's a "yard rat" in scout parlance, someone who loves the game, works his tail off, and is focused on the field. His fundamentals are sound. There are two main concerns about Greene. Some question how much power he'll show with a wooden bat. He'll hit for average and his strike zone judgment is good, but despite the 27 homers he hit this year, not everyone thinks he'll hit for more than gap power in the pros. The other concern is his defense. He's reliable, but despite his penchant for the spectacular play, some scouts don't think he'll have enough range to play shortstop long-term. That's not a unanimous concern, though if it does turn into a problem, he'll be shifted to second base. Will W. asks: The Astros next great Double-A pitching phenom, Kirk Saarloos, just got called to the majors. Before the season, your Astros' minor-league report rated his fastball as average and projected him to become a middle reliever. Other than his numbers -- which look phenomenal, especially his strikeout to walk ratio -- I don't know much about him. Has his fastball improved? Is he better than advertised? What did he show in Double-A ball that has the Astros convinced he should be the second guy (after Mark Prior) from the 2001 draft to be called up to the big leagues? A few weeks ago, I spoke with a major-league outfielder who'd spent some time in the Texas League this spring. He told me that Saarloos was the toughest pitcher he'd faced, all season ... including the guys he'd seen in the Show. This player hadn't faced guys like Pedro or Clemens or Schilling yet, but it was still a tremendous complement for Saarloos. It's not that Saarloos throws that hard. His fastball has average velocity, though it does have good movement. He gets people out because he knows how to pitch. Both his slider and his changeup are excellent, and when everything is working, he is extremely difficult to hit. The Astros used him as a closer after he signed in '01, but moved him into the rotation this year. He both started and relieved for Cal State Fullerton, so both roles are familiar to him. Before his promotion, Saarloos was 10-1, 1.40 in 13 starts for Double-A Round Rock. His K/BB was very good at 82/21 in 83 innings, but he'd allowed only 48 hits all season, just one being a homer. He'd clearly earned his way to Triple-A, but his promotion to Houston was a bit of a surprise. He got knocked around in his first start for the Astros, not something unexpected given his rapid advance. He should adjust eventually, provided he retains his confidence. Statistically, there is nothing in Saarloos' record that is not positive. From a subjective perspective, more and more scouts think he has what it takes to be a very fine major-league pitcher, though they'll always be a tinge of skepticism (until he actually succeeds) due to his mediocre heater. Tim H. asks: What is the current status of Tampa Bay prospect Josh Hamilton? He seems like a good kid and was so highly touted. Back troubles and other nagging injuries cost Hamilton almost all of 2001, and he's been on the shelf quite a bit in '02 as well. He's managed to get into 38 games (out of 70) so far for Class A Bakersfield this year, limited mostly to DH duty. He is hitting very well (.327/.380/.527), showing the excellent bat speed and raw power that made him so attractive when drafted. He's also running well, swiping eight bases already with just one caught stealing. The injuries have dropped Hamilton's stock, but he's still considered a top prospect. I'm worried about his penchant for swinging at bad pitches, and he'll need better plate discipline as he moves up. And, of course, he's got to prove he can stay healthy. He is now 21, still quite young, and with lots of development time ahead of him. Shannon B. writes: My question is regarding outfielder Jody Gerut. He seemed to be on the fast rack with Colorado before suffering a knee injury in September 2000. I know that he missed the entire year in 2001, and he was traded to the Indians. He is still relatively young. Does he have a legitimate shot at the big leagues in the next couple of years? Yes, he should see the majors within the next year, perhaps sooner given the thin nature of the Cleveland hitting attack. I liked Jody coming out of Stanford, but he never really found himself in the Rockies system, and the knee injury set his timetable back severely. It is no longer a problem, at least if the 17 bases he's swiped at Double-A Akron are any indication. He just got promoted to Triple-A Buffalo this week, and if he plays well there, he could see Cleveland after the All-Star break. Gerut has both decent power and decent speed. He'd probably hit 15 homers and steal 15-20 bases in a full major-league season. His approach at the plate is mature, and while he won't win batting titles, he should post a respectable on-base percentage. I don't see him as a lineup mainstay or superstar type, but he could hit .260-.280 with solid secondary contributions. John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. |
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