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| Friday, June 28 Updated: April 5, 5:06 PM ET Sizing up the Giants' young arms By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
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Down on the Farm wishes to extend our sincerest sympathy and condolences to the friends and family of Cardinals pitcher Darryl Kile. He was always a favorite of mine, due in part to his origins as an unheralded 30th-round draft pick. He was a solid pitcher, and by all accounts a terrific human being. If anything positive can come from his tragic death, perhaps it can be an increased awareness of the dangers of heart disease, even in people who are outwardly healthy and fit. Everyone, no matter what age or fitness level, should have their cholesterol and blood pressure checked, especially if you have a family history of heart disease, as Darryl did. Let's go to the mailbag. Cameron E. asks: I'm dying to get a report on the Giants' stable of young pitchers, namely Jerome Williams. It appears as though their philosophy in drafting has focused on easy to sign, polished college pitching over the last few years. How is that philosophy working for the Giants? Yes, the Giants have pushed hard for pitching over the last few years, concentrating on college arms for the most part. Williams was an exception, a high school pitcher from Hawaii drafted in the first round in 1999. I saw him pitch in Triple-A this year, and was extremely impressed with his arm action, his composure on the mound, and the bite on his curveball. Although his fastball can hit 95 mph, he was only working at 89-91 in the game I saw. Given his youth (age 20), the fact that he can hold his own in Triple-A is very impressive. Other top Giant pitching prospects include LSU product Kurt Ainsworth, University of San Francisco product Jake Foppert, 100 mph fastball owner Eric Threets, and former first-round high school draft pick Boof Bonser. Others like Ryan Hannaman, Noah Lowry, and Brad Hennessey would be top prospects in other organizations, but are the second tier for San Fran. Ainsworth and Foppert are very advanced, and should be ready to help someone by next season, though both have been mentioned in trade rumors. The good news is that the Giants have plenty of pitching depth in the farm system, thanks to their successful draft approach. The bad news is that the system lacks hitting talent. Shaun writes: Who are the prospects involved in the Alan Embree trade? Embree was traded from San Diego to Boston on Sunday. The Padres also included minor-league pitcher Andy Shibolo. In exchange, they received pitchers Brad Baker and Dave Geise from the Red Sox. Let's take a look at these guys. Shibolo: Was 4-3 with a 4.89 ERA for Double-A Mobile before the trade, pitching middle relief. A 6-7 right-hander who can top 94 mph, Shibolo was signed out of the independent Atlantic League in 2000. He has a good slider to go with his fastball, but his command can be erratic. He's a good throw-in, someone who has more upside than most Double-A middle relievers, but who isn't a top prospect. Baker: Probably the Red Sox top prospect two years ago, but his stock dropped after a weak 2001 season. He is pitching much better this year (7-1, 2.79 ERA in 12 starts for Class A Sarasota), showing improved command of his 90-93 mph fastball and plus curve. He's a solid Grade B prospect. A former first-round pick from high school in Massachusetts, he was a favorite of the previous administration, so it's interesting that the Red Sox were willing to part with him. They could end up regretting this. Geise: Held a 3.83 ERA in Double-A before the trade, pitching middle relief for Trenton. He doesn't have Shibolo's raw stuff, but his command is better. He'll take Shibolo's place in the Mobile bullpen. Ricky C. writes: What are your thoughts on the future of Rochester (Orioles Triple-A affiliate) righty John Stephens? I think this guy is arguably the most intriguing prospect in the minors, given his consistent success despite not being blessed with very much velocity. Other than a slight hiccup last year in nine Triple-A starts (and even then his peripheral numbers were strong), the guy has been just short of sensational his entire minor-league career. I wouldn't call him the "most intriguing" prospect in the minors, but I would say that he's worthy of a full shot in the major leagues, and right now. He's got nothing left to prove in Rochester. He's 9-4, 2.61 in 16 starts, with an outstanding 98/18 K/BB ratio in 110 innings. Like you, I don't care that his fastball is only 84 mph. He's proven he can get Triple-A hitters out, so he deserves a shot in the Show. And by "shot," I don't mean 15 innings. I mean 30 starts. Of course, convincing scouts and coaches to be patient with a guy who throws just 84 mph is about as easy as convincing a stubborn three-year old that a bowl of white rice and a pile of Cheez-it crackers do not constitute a balanced meal.
Brian S. asks: Is Josh Fogg for real? Yes, in the sense that he should have a successful career. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, and has to rely on his wits and control to survive, but he does that pretty well. His strikeout rate (46 in 90.2 innings) is low, however, a warning sign not to expect him to dominate. But he's got enough on the ball to have a good run in the back end of the starting rotation or perhaps in the bullpen for the Pirates. Alan R. writes: I'd kind of written off Drew Henson as a Josh Booty-like fraud, but his numbers have been climbing pretty steadily, and suddenly he's up around .290 with a slugging percentage over .500 at Triple-A. And though his strikeout-to-walk ratio is still poor, it's now around 9-to-1 as opposed to 15-to-1. Is he starting to figure things out? Since Alan asked his question, Henson's batting average has dropped to .270 at Columbus, with a .478 slugging percentage. He has 16 walks and 86 strikeouts in 274 at-bats, 72 games. Exactly half a season under his belt now, Henson is on pace for 38 doubles, 20 homers, 32 walks, and 172 strikeouts. Trying to get a handle on what will happen for Henson in the future is tough, about as hard as understanding the appeal of SpongeBob SquarePants. I wouldn't say he's a fraud; he's already more successful than Booty ever was. And Henson does show flashes of strike zone judgment. He was patient in the Arizona Fall League last year, and as a result had the best streak of successful hitting he's ever had. But he hasn't carried this forward to Triple-A, and I can't give anyone with a BB/K ratio that dreadful a top rating as a prospect. His potential remains immense, but it is still largely untapped. At 22, Henson still has lots of development time, so I would not write him off. But I'd be leery of overhype, too. That goes for fantasy owners, as well as general managers who may be tempted by Henson as part of a trade package down the stretch. John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. |
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