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John Sickels

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Friday, July 12
Updated: April 5, 5:03 PM ET
 
Yankees gave up too much in acquiring Weaver

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

I was planning on writing something sarcastic about the All-Star Game debacle, but I think it speaks for itself. It is just another piece of evidence, like the success of the Twins and Expos, that Bud Selig has bad karma. And he deserves it, too.

To the mailbag.

William M.S. writes: Are you going to do a write-up analysis of the Jeff Weaver trade? As you may recall, I'm a doomed Tigers fan looking for a bright side. Actually, I'm pretty optimistic. And that's without considering your comment a few years ago that Weaver was an injury waiting to happen, because of his delivery.

A capsule look at all the prospects involved in stretch-run trades can be found by clicking here.

Jeff Weaver
Starting pitcher
New York Yankees
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM IP W-L BB SO ERA
18 128.2 7-8 34 80 3.43

While the standard media thing to do is praise the Yankees for picking up another established pitcher, I really don't see what this trade does for them except add salary. Weaver is a very good pitcher, but Lilly has been pitching well himself. Both John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold, the prospects they sent to Oakland as part of the three-way deal, are top-notch guys in my opinion. As much as I like Weaver, I think the Yankees gave up an awful lot to get him.

Oakland basically did a prospect swap, sending the disappointing Carlos Pena, fireballer Franklyn German, and 2001 first-rounder Jeremy Bonderman, to Detroit. Pena goes right into the Tigers lineup. Despite his problems this year, I remain high on his long-term potential. German could be a future closer, while Bonderman is at least two years away, but has ace potential.

While losing Weaver is a short-term blow for the Tigers, they did get good value in return. I do feel sorry for Weaver, who seemed rather upset by the trade, wanting to finish his career in Detroit. Of course, he may change his mind about that if he wins a World Series ring, assuming there is a World Series.

So basically, I like this trade for both Oakland and Detroit, but I don't see what it does for the Yankees other than add salary and weaken the farm system.

John H. asks: You had very high praise and hopes for Toronto prospect Gabe Gross coming into this season in your Minor League Scouting Notebook, calling him possibly the best hitter in the draft and/or the one who could be ready for the majors first. But I'm sure you've noticed his early struggles in Double-A, where he was batting under .200 for much of this season, with very poor slugging and on-base percentages as well. But his stats have been on the upswing, as he is now hitting .216 with six homers (through July 11), which means he has at least had a decent last month or so. So I guess my question is, are you still as excited/optimistic about his potential or are you more alarmed by his struggles?

Gross was Toronto's first-round pick last year, out of Auburn. A fine all-around athlete with good tools, he also showed sharp baseball skills, flashing power, speed, and good patience. But he got off to a horrible start this spring, which the Blue Jays blame on a bad run of luck early in the season (the line-drive-right-at-people syndrome), plus a loss of confidence in May. But he's been hitting better lately, batting .288 in June. Despite his struggles, he's drawn 46 walks in 301 at-bats. He is maintaining command of the strike zone, which is the first step in getting back where he was expected to be.

I still like him, although obviously he is not going to advance as quickly as I thought he would. Yes, I'm alarmed, but not to the point of giving up on him. It is unusual, but not unprecedented, for a strong prospect to struggle this much, but the fact that he's been playing better lately, and has retained his high walk rate without excessive strikeouts, makes me optimistic that he'll come around in the long run.

Michael M. writes: The Cubs selected William & Mary shortstop Brendan Harris in the fifth round of the 2001 draft. He is currently hitting well over .300 and made the Florida State League All-Star team. Where does Harris stand with the Cubs? Does he have a chance of making the Cubs big-league roster anytime soon?

I think Harris is a sleeper. He hasn't gotten much attention, but he hit very well in college, hitting .390 and leading the Colonial Athletic Association with 18 homers in '01. He's carried that into pro ball, hitting .334 with a .554 slugging percentage so far in the Florida State League this year. He draws walks, can steal a base, and doesn't strike out much for a guy with power in his bat. He is also a good defensive player, with decent range and good hands in the middle infield. The Cubs have split his time between second base and third base this year. His arm isn't super-strong for third base, but he seems to be able to handle the position. If he keeps hitting like this in Double-A, he'll emerge as a top prospect by this time next year.

Harris isn't a big guy, generously listed at 6-0, 180. But he is strong for his size, has a sharp stroke with pop to all fields, and is a polished, intelligent hitter. I like him a lot.

John J. asks: What are your thoughts on Brooks Kieschnick, who is currently with the White Sox's Triple-A team in Charlotte, as a pitching prospect. I know that he was used as an outfielder for most of his professional career, but he has made a few relief pitching appearances this year with positive results: 12 innings pitched, six hits allowed, 14 strikeouts, two walks and a 0.00 ERA. Can he succeed in the majors as a pitcher?

Although Kieschnick was better known as a power hitter when he came out of the University of Texas way back in 1993, he did have good success as a pitcher in college. For the Longhorns in '93, he went 16-4 with a 3.25 ERA and a 126/49 K/BB ratio in 150 innings. The Cubs made him a hitter exclusively, since scouts said his fastball was only mediocre and wouldn't show well at higher levels. Well, it turned out it was his bat that was mediocre. The White Sox are giving him a shot as a pitcher, and as you point out, he is doing very well so far. He still doesn't throw that hard, but his curveball is pretty good, and not pitching for nine years doesn't seem to have hurt his feel for the art of moundwork. And you have to love the 14/2 K/BB ratio.

I'm not saying you should go out and buy Brooks Kieschnick stock for your pitching portfolio. But he is worth keeping an eye on. It would be a great story, a great story indeed if he turned into a good major-league pitcher after all these years as a Triple-A slugger. Stranger things have happened, and personally I'm rooting for him. Stories like this are what make baseball fun.

Matt S. writes: I was just wondering what your opinion of Jose Reyes is? In spring training with the Mets this year he was highly touted (although all marginal Mets prospects are). I read on baseballprospectus.com that they predict him to be the No. 1 prospect in baseball in a few months. Are you that high on him?

I don't think he'll be No. 1 on my list anytime soon, but he should end up in the Top 10 by the end of the year. Reyes has made major progress this year. He started the season at Class A St. Lucie, hitting .288/.353/.462, with 31 steals, through 69 games. He was promoted to Double-A Binghamton three weeks ago, and is hitting .306/.359/.514 so far. His strike zone judgment is decent, and while he will never be a massive power hitter (at least I don't think he will), he has considerable pop in his bat. He isn't a punch-and-judy guy, and since he runs very well, he should be a multitasking offensive player.

His defense is great: he has plus range, a strong arm, and quick hands. He needs to settle down a bit on the routine play, but he could win Gold Gloves someday if he does that. And best of all, he's only 19 years old, so he has tons of development time left.

Well, after writing all that, maybe he really will be the top prospect in the game within a few months. But even if he is "just" a Top 10 guy, he is a very legitimate prospect, not a marginal or over-hyped player. He is the real deal, and Mets fans should look forward to seeing him.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com.





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