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John Sickels

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Friday, August 2
Updated: April 5, 5:01 PM ET
 
What lies ahead for Reds prospect Larson?

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

I've been getting a lot of questions about the prospects involved in recent trades. You can find a quick scoop on these guys by clicking here.

To the mailbag.

Rockett writes: Brandon Larson is having a great year for Triple-A Louisville. Is there any reason why Larson isn't in the big leagues except that maybe Reds manager Bob Boone favors his own son Aaron over Larson? Larson seems to have all of the tools to be a star for Cincinnati now.

Larson's name came up in some trade rumors the past few days, but so far he's stayed put. His numbers this year in Triple-A are excellent: .340/.392/.667, 24 homers in 77 games. He's got a ton of raw power, but never really prospered until this year, due to (drumroll) mediocre strike zone judgment. Even this year, he'd drawn only 21 unintentional walks in Triple-A, along with 69 strikeouts. The other negative is his age: at 26, he is no early-year fowl as prospects go, and doesn't have much development time left.

Which doesn't mean he can't be a useful player. He's got a good glove at third base, and is quite dangerous with the bat when he does manage to get ahead in the count. He is doing quite well since getting promoted to Cincinnati two weeks ago, hitting .316 thus far with a lot of power. He's also drawn four walks in 42 plate appearances, a better record than he managed in the minor leagues. Of course, the sample is miniscule, and I'd be careful about projecting stardom, or even consistently strong numbers, from him at this point. I want to see what happens after the pitchers stop challenging him with fastballs. If he manages to keep a consistent eye on the strike zone, and avoid letting his swing get too long, he could do very well.

Larry B. asks: What do you see happening long-term with the Twins right-field position? Jacque Jones (left field) and Torii Hunter (center field) are nailed down in the other two outfield spots, but the Twins still have four very talented young players fighting for the third spot. I'm a big Michael Cuddyer fan. I believe he deserved the job out of spring training and would be battling Toronto's Eric Hinske for AL Rookie of the Year honors if he had been in the majors all season. Do you see Dustan Mohr, Bobby Kielty, Mike Restovich, Cuddyer or even Jones being moved for pitching to clear some room?

I've avoided writing about the Twins for awhile, since they are my favorite team. Columnists always run the risk of writing about their favorite team too often, especially if they are doing well, as the Twins are. Barring a catastrophic work stoppage, they are heading for the playoffs this year for the first time in more than a decade. Of course, I'm thrilled. Eleven years ago, I was a graduate student in history. The only people who had to listen to me ramble about the Twins were my girlfriend/future wife, my fellow GTAs, and my students. Now I'm a sportswriter, and people across the world, thanks to the glory of the internet, get to review my blathering.

Cuddyer
Cuddyer

Kielty
Kielty

Mohr
Mohr

Anyhow, Minnesota's weakness last year was hitting, but this year they have an embarrassment of riches in that department, especially in the outfield. You're right, Cuddyer deserved to make the team out of spring training, but so did Kielty and Mohr, and so far they have all done well. Don't forget Matt LeCroy, still looking for playing time at DH. With the passing of the trade deadline, it's apparent that Minnesota won't be making any major moves, but with a 15-game lead in the AL Central, and Brad Radke coming off the DL, it's not like a big move is critical. We should continue to see the Twins mix and match in the outfield and DH, trying to find playing time for everyone.

If a trade is made, I think it will be over the winter. Unless owner Carl Pohlad has a change of heart (does he have one?), the Twins will probably have to cut some salary, and getting rid of an outfielder is the most logical choice, since they'd be dealing from a position of strength. My guess (and this is just a guess right now), is that the person on the trade block would be Jacque Jones. He's a good hitter and an above-average fielder, but Hunter is better in both categories. Trading Jones would free up more money to sign Hunter long-term. Kielty and Mohr could replace Jones easily in left, with Cuddyer moving to right field, and Restovich cooling his heels in Triple-A, waiting for someone to get hurt.

No plan survives contact with the enemy, of course, but it makes sense on paper.

Clark M. writes: I have two questions about the Indians.

1. Do you think Ryan Church has a real future in the bigs?
2. Corey Smith hasn't progressed as anticipated, do you think he ever will?

Since getting promoted to Double-A several weeks ago, Church is hitting .280 with a .509 slugging percentage. Fine numbers, and indicative of someone who has a major-league future. I've liked him as a sleeper in the past. But one of his best attributes in Class A was strong strike zone judgment (yes, I know I talk about that all the time), but he's having trouble in that regard right now, drawing only five walks in 41 games at Akron. That will kill him in Triple-A or perhaps the majors, but he's shown the ability to adjust before. The short of it is, I still like him as a sleeper, but want to see that walk rate move back up.

As for Smith, his raw power and physical tools are what got him drafted in the first round a couple of years ago, and they are what is keeping him on prospect lists despite mediocre performance. This year, he's hitting .254/.335/.401 in 102 games for Class A Kinston. He's fanned 115 times. Disappointing numbers, as you point out. On the other hand, he's improving his defense at third base, his walk rate is creeping upward despite the strikeouts, and he's only 20 years old. He will not be Gary Sheffield, which is the comparison that scouts made when he was in high school, but it is far too early to write him off.

Dave M. asks: I am interested in your impressions of Red Sox third-base prospect Kevin Youkilis. He was recently promoted to Double-A Trenton and was one of the Sox minor-league players of the year last season. I know he was a bit old for A-ball (where he spent most of this season) but his numbers, especially his K/BB ratio, is very impressive. Is he the best of the thin crop in the Sox system?

Well, the Red Sox have traded off most of their prospects over the last couple of weeks, beginning with Brad Baker to San Diego in June, and ending with Seung Song to Montreal this week. They have very little left, and their farm system was extremely thin to begin with. It's almost as if they are trying to purge any remnant of the Duquette Administration, even those remnants that are potentially useful.

Youkilis is the only Red Sox hitting prospect who really intrigues me. Freddy Sanchez at Triple-A Pawtucket is OK, but he looks mostly like a utility guy to me. Youkilis' high-end isn't utility player, but rather batting champion. He hit .405 for the University of Cincinnati last year, earning a slot as an eighth-round pick. He then hit .317 in short-season ball, drawing an incredible 70 walks in 59 games (read that again). He's hit well this year in Class A, earning a promotion to Double-A, where he's hitting .311 with a .448 OBP in his first 13 games.

He doesn't have a ton of power, and his defense at third base is adequate rather than exciting. But his strike zone judgment is simply exceptional, and he has enough bat speed to hit for average in the majors. He will probably turn into a .280ish hitter with a high OBP, a Dave Magadan or Bill Mueller type, useful but not awesome. But it's not out of the question that he could end up as a consistent .300-.320 hitter, with a ton of walks.

Josh T. writes: As you can probably imagine, I'm trying not to get too excited over Dodgers 2002 first-round pick James Loney, as this is still his second month of rookie ball. However, it's pretty difficult with all the doubles and the awesome BB/K ratio he has compiled. Does he look like the real deal or is there some catch?

It's early, but he looks like the real deal to me, as much as anyone can in the Pioneer League.

Most teams liked Loney better as a pitcher, and were skeptical about the Dodgers using him full time as a hitter. He hit 93 mph pitching for Missouri City, Texas, high school this year, excellent velocity for a southpaw arm. But you can't argue with what he's done so far with the bat: hit .377/.465/.651, with exceptional strike zone judgment, 22 walks and just 16 strikeouts in 146 at-bats.

Putting up gaudy numbers in the thin-air Pioneer League is not unusual, but the BB/K mark makes it more likely than not that his numbers are for real. I do know that people who've seen him are extremely impressed by both his bat speed and polish at the plate. Right now, it looks like the Dodgers made the right decision.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com.





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