A Philadelphia fan writes: I read your scouting assessment of Marlon Byrd, when you said he'd hit .280+ with 15-20 homers and have a decent on-base percentage. Did you mean immediately, or over the long haul? As I understand, he has an outstanding work ethic, and I think he has what it takes to make one or two All-Star teams. The numbers you posted were pretty pedestrian, in fact I believe Doug Glanville bettered those numbers in his 1999 season.

My call for Marlon Byrd was a short-term assessment, what I expect him to do right away (this year and next) with enough playing time to get comfortable. And, unless he's suddenly possessed by the spirit of Al Glossop, Byrd should outhit Doug Glanville, at least where it counts (OBP and SLG).

For the record, Glanville hit .325/.376/.457 in '99, the only above-average offensive season he's had in his career. His career totals are .280/.318/.385.

Byrd is currently hitting .296/.365/.463 at Triple-A Scranton, which is about (back of the envelope calculation) .271/.330/.425 in Philadelphia. Here are three different interpretations of his 2001 Double-A numbers.

STATS 2001 MLE	.289/.338/.491
Baseball Forecaster 2001 MLE	.276/.332/.462
Baseball Prospectus 2001 MLE	.281/.347/.468

In the medium and long run, three or four years down the road, Byrd is capable of better, possibly All-Star numbers as you say. That's not guaranteed; he'll have to stay healthy, work hard, make adjustments, etc. But his work ethic is terrific, and if he doesn't get hurt and has a bit of luck on his side, he should have a fine career, certainly better than Glanville's.

An Atlanta fan asks: I wanted to know your opinion on Braves rookie pitcher Adam Wainwright. Do you think he is the future ace of Atlanta? How soon until he gets called up to the big leagues?

Wainwright is one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in baseball. Tall and lanky at 6-6, 190, he was a first-round pick in 2000, out of high school in Georgia. He posted an outstanding 184/48 K/BB ratio in 164 innings last year for Class A Macon. His numbers this season for Class A Myrtle Beach are also impressive: 2.65 ERA, 145/57 K/BB ratio in 143 innings, just 118 hits allowed. Only six homers surrendered.

Wainwright currently works at 90-93 mph. He throws strikes with his curveball and changeup, and demonstrates an advanced feel for the finer points of the game. He's very polished for a 21-year-old, yet he still has a chance to increase his velocity as he fills out his body. Statistically, his strong K/BB marks auger well for his future.

He'll be in Double-A next year, and could conceivably see Atlanta late in '03. A more conservative approach would have him at Double-A in '03 and Triple-A in '04, setting him up for a rotation spot in '05. But the Braves have been known to fall in love with certain pitchers and push them quickly. The only negative I see for Wainwright is his workload, which has been pretty heavy for such a youngster. He could be an ace if his velocity picks up a bit more; we'll be able to get a better read on that at this time next year.

Rob L. writes: Is Chin-Feng Chen still a prospect?

Yes, though his star is fading. The Dodgers converted him to first base this spring, and the talk was that he was the long-term replacement for Eric Karros. But Chen's season for Triple-A Las Vegas hasn't been that impressive. Yes, he's hit 25 homers. But his .275 batting average is very low for the thin Vegas air, plus he's fanned 138 times in 120 games. He was drawing walks at a good clip earlier in the season, but that's fallen off lately, and he now has just 48 free passes to his credit in 445 at-bats. He's also grounded into 18 double plays, and the decent speed and running skills he showed a few years ago in the California League have faded.

He turns 25 in October, so time is ticking away on him. He still has a chance to be a good hitter, but the star potential we saw in him a few years ago looks less and less likely to manifest.

Andrew asks: I'm a big White Sox fan and I've been following Tim Hummel since he was drafted with the hope he'd be our shortstop or second baseman of the future. Hummel has shown good contact skills and plate discipline and I thought he was a great candidate for a breakout season. The complete opposite has happened as he's fallen apart this year at Triple-A Charlotte.

I'm with you: I thought Hummel was a sleeper going into this year, too. He hit .290 with 33 doubles and 62 walks last year in Double-A, and was a successful college hitter at Old Dominion. I thought he'd break through and show some power this year in Triple-A. Alas, he's hit just .244, with deterioration in his walk and strikeout numbers, with no increase in his power production. He's having some trouble against right-handed pitchers, hitting just .224 against them, as opposed to .311 against southpaws. There's nothing interesting in his home/road splits to explain the struggles, and I'm told by people who've seen him this year that he just isn't swinging with the same authority he showed last year.

Hummel is capable with the glove at either second base or shortstop, and with Ray Durham gone, there is an opportunity for him next season. He's hit before, so there's a fair chance he'll hit again. He'll be 24 next year, so if he is going to be back to previous levels, he needs to do it soon if he wants a shot as a regular.

Greg writes: What do you think are Travis Hafner's chances of starting next year for the Rangers? And do you think Kevin Mench has a legitimate claim to be the AL Rookie of the Year?

	Kevin Mench Outfielder Texas Rangers Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM R HR RBI OBP AVG 72 40 14 46 .351 .279

Mench has hit well for the Rangers, but hasn't had full playing time, and won't have enough "counting stats" to pick up the trophy. I think Eric Hinske is going to win the award in the American League, despite his defensive troubles at third base. Bobby Kielty and Dustan Mohr in Minnesota have both hit very well, Kielty especially, but their split playing time makes it hard for either to win the award. Rodrigo Lopez in Baltimore has also had an outstanding season.

As for Hafner, as recently as two weeks ago, it looked like he'd have to find another team to play for via trade, since the Rangers were jammed up with first base and DH types. But this may change if the Rangers move Hank Blalock to second base and keep Mark Teixeira at third, freeing first base for Hafner long term, which is one rumor going around. I don't really believe the rumor, but I thought I'd mention it.

Hafner has certainly earned a shot somewhere, hitting .338/.458/.545 at Triple-A, with a reduced strikeout rate and tons of walks. If the Rangers can't find a slot for him, someone will. His raw power is tremendous, and he's really improved his ability to recognize breaking pitches and make contact. If the Rangers can't find a place for Hafner, expect him to be traded for pitching help this winter.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com.