I'm writing this article the evening of Aug. 28, not knowing how the whole strike mess will end up by the time you read this. Hopefully there will be a labor deal, and we won't have to worry about this silly pettiness (or is it petty silliness) for another five or six years.

But even if there is a strike, Baseball HQ's Fantasy Baseball Symposium will go on as planned. The event will be held on Nov. 1-4 in Phoenix, concurrent with the Arizona Fall League for prospects. I'll be speaking at the conference, as will other men such as Mat Olkin and John Hunt from Baseball Weekly, Joe Sheehan formerly of the Baseball Prospectus, and top-notch minor-league expert David Rawnsley. This is the fifth year I've participated, and it's a wonderful experience if you're a serious roto-head, or even just a baseball fanatic who wants to hang around with other addicts. You can find out more information by clicking here.

My nomination for Most Obvious Sports Headline of the Season: an article I just read on the internet entitled "Strike May Hurt Sports Marketing."

Now, on to the mailbag.

Shawn S. asks: What do you think of Willie Harris of the Chicago White Sox? I watched him make some spectacular plays during A-ball for the Delmarva Shorebirds before the Orioles got rid of him. What do you think he'll develop into? Do you think the White Sox traded Ray Durham to open up a path for Harris in the majors?

Well, I think the White Sox traded Durham mostly because they wanted to dump his salary. Having Harris in the wings made the decision easier, but I think they would have gotten rid of Durham just to get his paycheck off the books, even if they had to replace him with Jack Brohamer.

Harris is hitting just .206/.255/.278 since getting promoted, granted that's less than 30 games of work. Based on his minor league track record, he is capable of better. He hit .283/.345/.397 in Triple-A this year, with 32 steals in 89 games. He hit .305 with 54 steals in Double-A in 2001. To me, he looks like a future .260-.280 hitter, with some doubles power, a decent OBP, and enough speed to be dangerous. His glove is neither really good nor really bad. Scouts have nothing but praise for his intelligence, work ethic and baseball instincts. He plays "above his tools."

Harris doesn't have as much natural talent as Durham, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him pull a David Eckstein-style surprise next year if the White Sox are patient with him. Harris' biggest weakness is a tendency to try and hit for power, which often just results in medium-length fly balls. He's most effective when he keeps his swing compact and concentrates on the line drive.

Jon A. writes: As a huge Phillies fan, I feel I have no choice but to ask you what the deal is with Bud Smith? I realize that he probably isn't a "prospect" anymore (you didn't include him in your Down on the Farm: Prospects in trades analysis) but will he ever get back to the level he was at last year? I distinctly remember people saying (on ESPN.com) that he is a Cy Young Award just waiting to happen, but now it looks and sounds as if everyone is writing him off.

I heard one GM say about Smith that he "has no ceiling." It seems to me, used that way, the term would have a positive connotation (he can go as high as he wants and nothing can get in his way), but I got the impression, from the article, that it was being used in a negative way (it wasn't very clear). Is this a common saying and do you have any idea what this means?

When baseball people talk about a player's ceiling, they mean his ultimate potential. A player with a "high ceiling" has the potential to become a special player. It is usually reserved for a player with outstanding physical tools: the muscular guy who looks great in uniform, or the thrower with the 97-mph fastball. A player who doesn't have a high ceiling is a guy who is probably already as good as he's going to be, or who doesn't have the kind of physical tools that knock the socks off scouts. So when someone says that Smith doesn't have a high ceiling, what they mean is that he doesn't have a lot of physical projection left: he is as good as he's going to get organically. He won't start throwing 97-mph fastballs.

But a player without a high ceiling isn't necessarily a bad player. Indeed, many good major-league players were criticized as prospects for their lack of ceiling or projectability. David Eckstein was a guy like that; on the mound, Rick Reed would be a good example. Conversely, many guys with great ceilings fail to develop, Ruben Rivera being a classic case.

A guy with a great ceiling who does develop turns into A-Rod or Vlad the Impaler.

As for Smith, he was one of my favorites last year, and I'm disappointed in how poorly he's done this year. Since coming to Philadelphia, Smith has a 4.15 ERA in three starts for Triple-A Scranton. More worrisome is the deterioration in his ratios. His K/BB is 11/6 in 17 innings, but with 21 hits allowed. He did have better numbers for Triple-A Memphis in the Cards system, but his numbers in 10 major-league starts for the Cardinals were just awful. 22/22 K/BB, 67 hits allowed in 48 innings, 6.94 ERA. The ratios point to a pitcher really struggling with all aspects of pitching, not just someone having a run of bad luck.

Can Smith turn it around? Before this year, he was renowned for his pitching instincts, command, and unflappability on the mound. He drew comparisons to John Tudor and Jimmy Key. If there is not an underlying health problem, he still has a chance to come back. It would be silly to give up on a 22-year-old with his track record. The early signs of a rebound will come in his K/BB and K/IP marks, so watch those carefully, even if his ERA stays mediocre.

An Indians fan writes: I would like to know the current condition of the Indians farm system. You wrote about them during the winter and I would like to know how the system is now?

A year ago, I thought the Indians system was thin, though showing a few signs of improvement after several years of stagnation. They've really improved over the last six months, thanks to the development of some internal prospects, plus astute trades. The pitching is most impressive; the Tribe has corralled a strong group of young moundsmen, including homegrown lefty Brian Tallet, and trade acquisitions Billy Traber, Ricardo Rodriguez, and Alberto Cruceta. The 2001 draft class brought in several excellent young high school pitchers, all of whom are showing good potential this year at Class A Columbus: Dan Denham, Jake Dittler, Travis Foley (possibly the best of the group but also the least-heralded), and J.D. Martin.

The best position player is catcher Victor Martinez, who I profiled last week. He could be Rookie of the Year next season. The system is otherwise a bit thin in hitters, with a few guys who look like contributors (outfielder Ryan Church), and some other players with high ceilings but mixed track records (third baseman Corey Smith). Watch for tool-laden outfielder Grady Sizemore, acquired from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon deal. He's showing signs of putting his game together.

The Indians have a big rebuilding job ahead of them, but they've collected a lot of raw material. They have one of the best stockpiles of young pitching in the minor leagues. Remember, of course, that injuries can evaporate stockpiles of young pitching faster than a teaspoon of water in the Sahara.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com.