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| Friday, September 6 Searching for that long lost prospect By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
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OK, let's get this out of the way. Fehr. Fear. Selig. Strike. Lockout. Labor. Stoppage. Contraction. Disaster. Debacle. Collapse of Baseball Civilization. There. We won't have to use those words for a long time, and I hope never again. If you want to clear the palate, take in some fall baseball, listen to knowledgeable baseball experts, get the inside scoop for your fantasy team, and just hang out with a bunch of cool folks who love the game as much as you do, sign up for the Arizona Fall League Symposium, sponsored by Baseball HQ. They are still running an Early Bird Special, and you can find all the information you need (including an ugly picture of yours truly) by clicking here. Several people pointed out that I should have mentioned Brandon Phillips when discussing the Indians farm system last week. I've covered Phillips earlier this year, and he's one of the best infield prospects in the game, but I still should have mentioned his name as a key factor in the dramatic improvement in Cleveland's farm fortunes. The Indians did an excellent job with their veterans-for-prospect trades this year. On to the mailbag! Mike writes: I rode a bus from Logan (Mass.) to Cape Cod a few years ago with a kid from California named Mike Neu. I gave him a pep talk because he was worried about his size. The scouts told him he was too short. I know he went to the minors eventually, but I haven't heard of him since, and don't know how to track him down. Any ideas about where he is? I've had my eye on Neu as a sleeper for a couple of years. He was a successful college pitcher for the University of Miami, but despite closing for the College World Series champs in '99, he was just a 29th-round pick by the Cincinnati Reds. He has a live arm, hitting 90 mph and showing a good breaking ball, but scouts discount him because he's a short right-hander, listed at 5-10 but probably shorter. We've discussed the irrational prejudice against short pitchers before, and Neu is another guy who has a chance to break that barrier. The most intriguing thing about his pro performance has been his strikeout rates. He fanned 95 in 69 innings in 2000, then 102 in 65 innings in 2001. This year he fanned 85 in 67 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A, racking up a combined 23 saves in the process. Neu's control can wobble at times, but the movement and velocity on his pitches is major league, and his high strikeout rate is an excellent sign for his future. He's clearly a sleeper who could slot in as a middle reliever with the Reds sometime next year. Rooting for guys like this is a big part of what makes baseball fun for me. Jay B. asks: Your Top 50 Prospects for 2002 were more or less in line with others who do this sort of thing, but two names stand out on your list. No one had Atlanta's Kelly Johnson or Toronto's Gabe Gross ranked nearly as high as you ranked them. Do you still like them that much, even though they struggled this year? Johnson was a supplemental first-round pick by the Braves in 2000. Yes, I was very high on him following his '01 campaign. He hit .289/.404/.513, hitting 23 homers, drawing 71 walks, and stealing 25 bases for Class A Macon, at age 19. Power, patience, speed, plus praise as Atlanta's third baseman of the future, are the reasons I rated him so highly, giving him an A- in the book last year. I rated him as the 15th-best prospect in baseball. Johnson struggled at times this year for Class A Myrtle Beach, which has knocked him off some prospect lists. He finished hitting .255 with 12 homers and 51 walks. I still think he's a fine prospect. Nine of his 12 homers came on the road, and Myrtle Beach is a notoriously tough park for hitters. He also had trouble against left-handed pitching. But he is still just 20, and I think the park effects in his home stadium had a lot to do with his problems this year. I remain high on him, though obviously he needs to rebound in '03. Gross was Toronto's first-round pick in '01, out of Auburn. Based on his scouting reports, college performance, and early pro results, I gave him a B+ grade and ranked him as the 18th-best prospect in baseball. Like Johnson, Gross had a bad year, although I'm not giving up on him by any means. He finished at .238 with 10 homers and eight steals this year in Double-A, a far cry from the .280-.300 mark with power I was expecting. On the other hand, despite his struggles, he retained good strike zone judgment, drawing 53 walks with just 71 strikeouts in 403 at-bats. He also hit .279 from June 1 to the end of the season, so this could simply be a case of needing a couple of months to get used to pro pitching. I don't have any regrets about pegging either of these guys as top prospects for this year. While I'll have to downgrade both of them to some extent for 2003, both remain very intriguing players who should not be abandoned. Jeremy S. writes: What is your best guess as to when Chris Bootcheck and Joe Torres will be ready to play at Edison Field? I heard they both hit 95-97 mph at times. Is that true? Are they trade bait, or will the Angels bring them along? The Angels have done a good job rebuilding their farm system over the last three years. They were one of the worst systems in the game just two years ago, but they've made substantial progress, especially in the area of pitching. Both Bootcheck and Torres are legitimate prospects, Torres with the higher ceiling, but Bootcheck with the better chance to contribute quickly. Bootcheck is ahead of Torres as this point. He began the season in Double-A, then was promoted to Triple-A in time to make nine starts for Salt Lake, posting a 3.88 ERA and a 4-3 record. He walked just 16 in 58 innings, but his strikeout rate was too low for us to project immediate success in the Show, as he fanned just 38. That's not bad, but it's not stunning. Bootcheck can hit 94 mph (I'm not aware of him throwing 97), but often works in the 90-93 range. He also has a good cut fastball, a curve, and a changeup. I don't see Bootcheck as a future No. 1 starter, but he should be a solid No. 3-guy, and could get a chance to show us that next season. Torres spent this year at Class A Cedar Rapids, posting an 11-8 record and 3.52 ERA in 25 starts. He hit 96 mph when he was drafted out of high school in 2000, but hasn't shown that velocity since, being sidetracked with minor injuries and more serious mechanical problems in '01. He got his mechanics fixed this year, and was back to popping the ball, but he needs help with his command. His K/BB ratio was weak at 87/66 in 133 innings this year. The control was mediocre, and the strikeout rate is very low for a guy who can throw as hard as Torres can. He turned 20 this week, so he's still extremely young. As you know, that cuts both ways with pitchers. His potential is immense, but it's still "potential" right now, not performance. I don't think we'll see him in Anaheim any time soon. John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com. |
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