The Alfonso Soriano article I wrote earlier this week generated many intriguing e-mail responses. Possibly the most interesting from a sabermetric perspective are these two. I don't have a lot to add to them, but I wanted to share them with you.

The first is from Michael G.:
"I have been playing around with a database that has baseball numbers that are adjusted for context. The database only runs through 2001, but I put together a table similar to Bill James' (except with OPS instead of Runs Created) and added Soriano to it.

Soriano did not come out at the top of it once you reduced his strikeouts for his era (he came in ninth behind two players I will mention below, Joe Medwick, and some 19th century players). The player who came out on top was Bob Meusel. He not only posted the No. 1 season in points, but he also had the No. 3 season. Those were his first two years in the majors, 1920 and 1921. Take a look:

Year	Age	Team	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1920	23	NYY	AL	119	460	75	151	40	7	11	83	4	4	20	72	.328	.359	.517
1921	24	NYY	AL	149	598	104	190	40	16	24	135	17	6	34	88	.318	.356	.559

Those were Soriano-esque seasons for the 1920s. The 72 strikeouts in 1920 were good for fourth in the league, and the 88 strikeouts in 1921 led the league. Meusel's career might give us an idea where Soriano will go from here.

The other player who was prominent on the list was Dave Robertson. He occupied the No. 2 and No. 4 places on the list with his seasons in 1916 and 1917.

Here are those seasons:

Year	Age	Team	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1916	26	NYG	NL	150	587	88	180	18	8	12	69	21	17	14	56	.307	.326	.426
1917	27	NYG	NL	142	532	64	138	16	9	12	54	17	??	10	47	.259	.276	.391

Somewhat high strikeouts for that day, with tiny walk totals. He tied for the league lead in homers both seasons. He didn't exactly have a glorious career after that. Regardless, this could be another possibility for Soriano.

Thought you might be interested. Soriano has some company if you adjust for era."

John says:
Michael is right; if you adjust for the differences in era, both Meusel and Robertson compare with Soriano at least on strikeouts. The 1920-1921 American League averaged just under three strikeouts per game; the current average is over six, meaning that strikeouts are more than twice as common nowadays than they were when Meusel was playing, making his strikeouts-compared-to-league averages very similar to Soriano's. The strikeout rate in the 1916-1917 National League was somewhat higher, around 3½ strikeouts per game, so Robertson's numbers aren't quite as extreme. Surprisingly, there hasn't been nearly as much change in walk rates, at least not compared with strikeouts.

On the other hand, both Meusel and Robertson were outfielders, not infielders. Neither had as much speed as Soriano. Both were good hitters, but neither had extremely long careers. Again, looking at the complete package of talent, they don't really compare that well to Soriano. It should be noted that Meusel was able to cut his strikeouts and increase his walks as his career progressed. It will be interesting to see if Soriano can do the same thing.

Then there is this one from Larry R.:
"Is Alfonso Soriano already a better player than Garry Templeton ever became? Undoubtedly, he is better now than Templeton became, as he plummeted at age 25. But can we say that Soriano is better now than Templeton in 1979-80, when he had already had three spectacular seasons by age 24? Your Runs Created comparisons help to control our home run/stolen base fetishes. Then if we put the Runs Created totals in the contexts of their contemporary league and team averages, we find that Soriano and Templeton are eerily similar at the same age.

Using Baseball Reference.com statistics ...

1979: Templeton created 14.96 percent (102 RC) of the runs that an average NL team scored (682) in 1979. He created 13.95 percent of his St. Louis team's total of 731 runs.

1980: Templeton (age 24) Injuries restricted him to 118 games. On the basis of season totals, he created 11 percent (72 RC) of the NL average team (654), and 9.8 percent of his team's total of 738.

On a per-game basis, he created 15.1 percent of the NL average for 118 games (476) and 13.4 percent of his team's 538 runs per 118 games.

2001: Soriano (age 23) Created 9.5 percent (75 RC) of the runs scored by an average AL team (787). He created 9.3 percent of his Yankee team's total of 804.

2002: Soriano (age 24) Created 16.2 percent (126 RC) of the AL average team (778) and 14.05 percent of his Yankee team's total of 897.

At age 23, Templeton was clearly superior. His great year in 1979 built upon his 94 Runs Created (.322 BA) in 1977 (age 21) and 74 Runs Created in 1978.

At age 24, Soriano had the upper hand over Templeton's injury year, while their per-game Runs Created were very close. Defensively, they are also similar, both regarded as able to make the spectacular play, with a lot of errors.

You can make a good argument that Soriano is better than Templeton was in 1980, but it's certainly arguable. What we should all be hoping is that Soriano doesn't fall into the young superstar traps that ensnared Templeton."

John says:
Templeton already had a reputation as something of a headcase at this point in his career, which Soriano doesn't have, so hopefully he can avoid the problems that ruined Templeton's progress.

Either way, watching Soriano's development will be, to use a Vulcan phrase, "fascinating." The historical precedents are not exactly on his side, but history does not always repeat itself.

Tony P. asks:
1. Which prospects are scouts more excited about in terms of long term offensive production among the following: Brandon Phillips, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Borchard, Rocco Baldelli or Mark Teixeira?

2. Given the recent success of college pitchers like Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Mark Prior, and the less successful track record of high school pitchers, do you anticipate a shift away from high school pitchers in the early rounds of the draft?

John says:
In terms of raw power, Teixeira and Borchard are way ahead of the other guys on your list. Both could be 40+ home run hitters. Teixeira will hit for a higher average, draw more walks, and is likely the best overall hitter in the group. Phillips and Baldelli are more moderate power/speed/batting average guys. We don't know about Ramirez yet; we need to see what he does at higher levels. He could be anywhere between Alex Gonzalez (either one), Cristian Guzman, or A-Rod.

As for the pitchers, if recent drafts are any indication, we will actually see more high school pitchers taken, not fewer, despite the poor historical track record. The last few draft classes have been thick with high school pitching, with guys taken in the second or third round who would have been clear first-round picks in previous seasons. I think we may be starting to see a shift in the cycle of young talent, with more pitchers and fewer hitters starting to filter through. Such shifts are natural, have happened before, and will happen again.

The relationship between professional baseball and the colleges is about as bad as it has ever been, with teams becoming increasingly aggressive about signing pitchers out of high school, for fear that college programs will burn them out. And as bonuses rise, it becomes harder for the premium draft picks to turn down money, especially since money for college is now a standard part of the bonus package.

Albert A. writes:
I grew up playing ball with C.C. Sabathia and Joe Thurston. I was wondering if Thurston is going to get the opportunity to play ball in the majors next year for the Dodgers. He did not get much playing time down the stretch because of the pennant race, but when he did play he seems to be doing better than most expected.

What do you think?

John says:
Thurston is supposed to play next year, at least that's the rumor. I think he'll do OK. He hit .334 with 12 homers, 39 doubles, 22 steals, and played decent if inconsistent defense at Triple-A last season. His on-base percentage will be mediocre, since he doesn't walk enough. He works his tail off, hustles like crazy, and should quickly become a favorite of both coaches and fans. I see Thurston as a good solid player, though not a star.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at johnsickels.com.