The Braves have won 955 games over the last 10 years, 145 more than the closest National League team, the Astros.
It has been an amazing run by the Braves, who haven't gotten the credit they deserve for their regular-season domination. But last year, they only won 95 games, ending a streak of three 100-win seasons, then were trounced, and looked terrible, in the Divisional Series against St. Louis.
So, is the NL finally catching up to the Braves?
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Total dominance
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How the Braves have finished dating back to 1991:
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Year
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Record
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Place
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1991
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94-68
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1st -- NL West
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1992
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98-64
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1st -- NL West
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1993
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104-58
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1st -- NL West
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1994
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68-46
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2nd -- NL East*
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1995
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90-54
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1st -- NL East
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1996
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96-66
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1st -- NL East
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1997
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101-61
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1st -- NL East
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1998
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106-56
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1st -- NL East
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1999
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103-59
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1st -- NL East
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2000
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95-67
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1st -- NL East
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* strike year
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Yes ... but very slowly.
They open the season as the league favorite to go to the World Series, but they're not quite as strong a favorite as they have been in years past. Other NL teams have improved over the winter. The Rockies, for one, are better as are the Diamondbacks. The Astros might be back after a year finishing under .500. The Cardinals have a chance to be very good. The Giants are always good. The Dodgers have terrific starting pitching. In the NL East, the Marlins keep improving. And so do the Expos.
The Braves are a big hitter short of being a very, very good team, but that's assuming that right fielder Brian Jordan doesn't get hurt, as he has in recent years, and B.J. Surhoff stays healthy, which he hasn't been able to do his short time in Atlanta. Normally, an injury or two wouldn't faze the Braves, they'd just make a trade for someone to fill a hole. But they've traded a number of young players in recent years, making their system not quite as stocked.
They pursued Mike Hampton and Alex Rodriguez this winter, and didn't get either (they did offer A-Rod $126 million, but it turned out to be only half of what the Rangers eventually gave him).
That's the bad news. Let's turn to the good news, which there is far more of.
"If they're slowing down, I don't see it," says one NL executive. "Look at their core, everyday players. Chipper Jones isn't even 30 years old. Andruw Jones is the best center fielder I've ever seen, he's going to be a great, great player. What's he, 23? (Rafael) Furcal is 20. How good will he be in five years? Those guys are going to be good for a long time. If they have a hole, they just plug it."
They can fill in with their farm system, which is still well above average and is getting stronger -- the Braves had five of the first 51 picks in the June 2000 draft, and invested more money than any team in that draft. They may not have the money to spend that they've had recently, but they sign the amateur players they want; few teams are better at finding talent than the Braves. And they can re-sign their best major leaguers before they get to free agency.
"Look at their pitching?" said one scout, who has seen the Braves a lot over the last two years, as well as this spring. "Their pitching is still great. (Greg) Maddux and (Tom) Glavine didn't slow down last year, they were as good as ever down the stretch. (John) Smoltz is coming back. (Kevin) Millwood didn't have a good year, but he'll bounce back this year. Their starting pitching is still the best in the league. Their bullpen is in better shape than any time in the last 10 years."
|  | | Greg Maddux has won 18 or more games in each of the last four seasons. |
Maddux turns 35 on April 14, but 35 isn't what it used to be, especially with the crafty Maddux. Last September, he compiled a 5-1 record with a 2.03 ERA. In 44 1/3 innings during that time, he walked four and struck out 40.
Glavine, meanwhile, just turned 35, but he's not showing his age, either. He was 12-4 after the All-Star break last year and his ERA in September was 1.98.
"He and Maddux are going to take advantage of the new strike zone," said Padres right fielder Tony Gwynn. "They'll find a way to make it work to their advantage. Take Glavine. Against a left-handed hitter, he'll go down and way, down and away, down and away, then, if he gets this pitch (fastball in, at the letters) for a strike, I can't hit that pitch. If he gets that pitch, it'll be almost impossible to hit."
Smoltz will begin the season on the disabled list with tendinitis in his right elbow, but he's still primed for a big comeback. There isn't a more competitive, more disciplined player in the game than Smoltz, who is determined to be a better pitcher than he was before undergoing elbow surgery.
Remember, this is the same guy who has to win, and do well, at everything he tries. As a kid, he played the accordion for "three to four hours a day." Guess how old was he when he was playing the accordion for those three to four hours a day?
"I was four," he said. Four years old! No four-year old can do anything for four hours a day. But that's Smoltz. Whatever the challenge, he'll insist on doing it better than anyone. He'll bounce back this year. Bank on it.
When Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz do slow down, ample help is on the way with Matt McClendon, Matt Belisle and Billy Sylvester, among others. Jason Marquis dazzled scouts with his stuff last season and might be a prominent member of the bullpen this season. As for everyday players, there are options, as well. Speedy outfielder George Lombard, who will miss most of this season with an injury, remains a top prospect for the 2002 season.
The problem with the Braves is that they're not the same team in the playoffs. As Smoltz said last year, "I don't know if this team is built to win a World Championship. It's built more for 162 games." It is a team built on great starting pitching, usually four or five of them, but teams can win in the playoffs with three starters. The Braves' steady, unemotional approach works so well over a five-month season, but not as well during a three-week postseason. Teams win in the postseason with star hitters, and the Braves have few.
So, they might struggle again in the postseason. But they'll get there, as always, and they'll get there as NL East champions. Other teams are gaining, but not as fast as they'd like.
ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian writes a weekly column for ESPN.com.
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