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Wednesday, March 26
Updated: April 3, 4:42 PM ET
 
Take your pick as NL Central is wide open

By Sean McAdam
Special to ESPN.com

Stronger teams? There'll be plenty, from the Oakland A's and New York Yankees to the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies.

Races and chases
• McAdam: NL Central is race to watch
• Neyer: Is April all that important?
• Morgan: Teams in World Series mix
• Neel: Chasing 500 homers
• Polls: Who'll win races? | HR titles?

Deeper divisions? Sure. The American League West has sent two representatives to the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and winning more than 90 games last year only got the Seattle Mariners a third-place finish.

But better races? It's unlikely that there will be a better one than the one which settles the National League Central crown, where as many as four teams could battle for first.

Of the six clubs in the division, only rebuilding Pittsburgh and lowly Milwaukee can rightfully be eliminated from contention.

Parity has been a hallmark of this division since the wild card was introduced. All four teams positioned to make a run for the NL Central title -- St. Louis, Houston, Cincinnati and Chicago -- have qualified for the postseason in that span. Contrast that to the NL East, which has had the same champion every year (Atlanta) and has sent only one other member (New York) to the playoffs.

None of which is to suggest the NL Central teams aren't without their flaws. To the contrary, because they're so imperfect, the odds of a four-team scramble are that much more likely. No team is proficient enough in every area to separate itself from the pack.

Matt Morris
The Cardinals have a definite ace in Matt Morris.

Perhaps geography plays a part here. As quintessential Midwest teams, few of the clubs in the NL Central have the same sort of unlimited budgets as their large-market brethen on either the East or West Coast. Other than the Cubs -- who choose not to spend freely, though they could afford to do so -- the rest of the Central teams must choose and spend carefully. This makes for an even-footed, if not imperfect, race.

(The same can mostly be said of the division's corresponding set in the AL, where the AL Central members have much the same limitations. In fact, it's as if these two divisions of the six are operating with a de facto salary cap.)

Not surprisingly, the NL Central contenders have more in common than not. Each is guided by a veteran manager, all of whom have managed elsewhere. Each can boast of obvious strengths -- and possess just-as-obvious shortcomings. And any of the four could be in first place six months from now.

Try saying that about four different teams in the AL East or NL East, each of which is top-heavy and divided by a Dickensian caste system. Or the AL Central, where the Twins and White Sox have learned the importance of building from within, something their division mates in Kansas City and Detroit have repeatedly failed to master.

As the season opens, two NL Central teams -- Chicago and St. Louis -- must begin without their closers, though the Cubs seem better armed, for now, to cover the absence of Antonio Alfonseca. Another -- the Cincinnati Reds -- is changing closers, having moved Danny Graves from that slot a year ago into the starting rotation.

Only Houston -- with lefty Billy Wagner and the division's best setup weapon, Octavio Dotel -- begins the year with a certain late-inning bullpen plan of attack.

The Cubs boast (potentially) the best starting rotation of the group, with no fewer than four starters capable of throwing in the upper 90s. The trick for new manager Dusty Baker will be to keep them all healthy. The Cards have Matt Morris, arguably the best starter the division has to offer, but the dropoff is considerable thereafter.

Jeff Bagwell
Jeff Bagwell, left, has hit 30 or more home runs for seven straight seasons for the Astros.

The Astros duo of Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt is as good as any this side of Schilling-Johnson, but the other Houston starters must contribute wins (and innings) to fill out the rotation. Cincinnati's rotation is clearly the weakest of the lot.

Of course, the Reds could well have the best lineup to more than compensate, especially if Ken Griffey Jr. -- showing signs of his former (healthier) self -- has the kind of season he's once again capable of having.

A position change in Houston -- where Craig Biggio has moved again, this time to center field to accommodate newcomer Jeff Kent -- will bear watching, as will the stamina of Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, whose ferocious style of play may have aged them.

In Chicago, the Cubs are counting on Hee Seop Choi at first base, but more than anything, need a big season from Moises Alou to provide protection for Sammy Sosa. The Cardinals' everyday talent is unquestioned, but the staff, from front to back, has its holes.

As even as the field is, the division could well be decided by injuries and the ability of teams to respond to needs at the trading deadline. Once again, payroll limits will test the resourcefulness of the respective general managers.

My pick? I'll go with the Cubs, who -- let's face it -- are due some better health and luck. Just don't hold me to it. This race is nearly impossible to properly handicap. And that's precisely the beauty of it.

Sean McAdam of the Providence (R.I.) Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com.





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