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| Tuesday, May 21 Don't expect Reds and Marlins to go away By Joe Sheehan Special to ESPN.com |
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If market size or revenues were everything, this week's Reds/Marlins series wouldn't mean a thing. Fortunately, they play the games on the field, and no amount of anti-marketing by Bud Selig and his cronies can change the fact that these two teams are in the thick of division races six weeks into the season. Each is getting it done with a good offense, but the two pitching staffs -- both effective -- are as different as night and day. For some time now, the Reds have been baseball's headquarters for retread starting pitchers. From Pete Harnisch to Ron Villone to Steve Parris to Osvaldo Fernandez, general manager Jim Bowden has brought in arms coming off of surgeries, lousy seasons, and good performances in foreign lands in an effort to build a rotation. Each February, he serves up his latest finds to pitching coach Don Gullett, who sifts through them and assembles a pitching staff from the gems. Gullett has shown a talent for getting solid work from low-cost gambles, be it by correcting a mechanical flaw, tinkering with a pitchers' repertoire, or just encouraging someone to throw strike one.
This year, the Bowden/Gullett tandem has outdone itself by making an effective rotation starter out of Jose Rijo. After four seasons and seven surgeries, Rijo completed an improbable comeback last August by giving the Reds 17 nondescript innings out of the bullpen. While a great story, there was no reason to expect Rijo to actually be a factor in 2002; he hadn' t really been an effective pitcher since 1994. Nevertheless, Rijo has given the Reds five good starts in six tries, and while he's not remotely the power arm he was in the late 1980s -- just 19 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings -- he has pitched well while serving as a de facto assistant pitching coach and mentor for guys like Jose Acevedo, Luis Pineda and Chris Reitsma. The rest of the rotation is right off the same pile: Joey Hamilton, Elmer Dessens, Jimmy Haynes. Acevedo has done a fair job in Hamilton's place, and Bowden steal Chris Reitsma (acquired for Dante Bichette) has kept the ball in the park more this year (3 HR in 41 IP), helping him to cut his ERA by more than two runs. The entire rotation makes less than $4 million, or what Kevin Brown has already pulled in for his seven starts and 37 1/3 innings. What makes the plan work for the Reds is the best bullpen in baseball. They can afford to have a rotation of what some derisively call "six-inning pitchers" -- Reds' starters have pitched into the seventh inning just 11 times in 44 games -- because they have three core relievers who can work effectively and often. Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Gabe White comprise one of the game's best set-up/closer groups, but it's not just them: every man in the Reds' pen is making a positive contribution. Thanks to a rotation that has no complete games, the workload that Graves, Sullivan and White are carrying has garnered some attention. All are on pace to throw more than 100 innings, with Sullivan and White headed for more than 100 appearances. Bob Boone will need to pull back on the reins, especially on Sullivan, who has shown signs of wear lately and has a couple of big second-half swoons on his record. The thing is, Boone may have the luxury of doing so. Jim Brower, Pineda and the healthy-again Scott Williamson are all pitching well in low-leverage roles, in part thanks to keeping the ball in the park: they've combined to allow just two home runs in nearly 70 innings of work. Williamson and Pineda are both striking out more than a man an inning, the only two pitchers on the staff who can make that claim. Boone may even be soon adding hard-throwing John Reidling -- who had a 2.41 ERA last year -- to his mix. The Reds have more major-league-caliber arms at their disposal than either the Cardinals or Astros. That depth makes them a threat to stay in this race deep into the summer.
Going fishing for some arms
Of the four studs, only Dempster and Burnett have remained in the rotation all season, as both Penny and Beckett have suffered nagging injuries. The Marlins have enviable depth at the upper levels of their organization, with Kevin Olsen and Hansel Izquierdo the top candidates to fill in. Unlike the Reds, the Marlins have had some bullpen problems, most notably at the beginning of the season. Vladimir Nunez has settled in as the closer, however, and an assortment of anonymous, effective arms has provided manager Jeff Torborg with good innings. The Marlins' pen has been much better since the season's first two weeks, when it coughed up more leads than a weak-willed FBI informant. Right now, Nunez, Izquierdo, and Braden Looper -- Friday night's disaster notwithstanding -- are all pitching well. It might behoove Torborg to trust those guys a bit more. He has placed a heavy workload on both Burnett (114 pitches per start, four above 120) and Dempster (107 pitches per start). As we pointed out at our web site, Torborg has a history of going to the whip hand with young pitchers, having worked his White Sox charges very hard during his 1989-1991 tenure with the team. If he does that here, he may not have much of a rotation come September, or more importantly, come 2003.
Coming and going?
What's scary about the Reds is that they're 26-18, in first place by three games, and have gotten just 22 at-bats out of superstar Ken Griffey. Out with a knee injury, Griffey is expected back in the next week or so, giving the Reds another big left-handed bat with which to prop up what has been an average offense so far. For all the current hoopla about the Reds' outfield situation, the fact is that Juan Encarnacion has no business being mentioned with Griffey, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. He's a fair fourth outfielder who happened to have a nice power streak at the right time, and who should return to a bench role -- and a sub-.300 OBP -- any day now. The willingness of the fans and media to consider an idea like "benching Griffey" is ludicrous, an example of the levels of enmity and pettiness to which both groups can sink. Griffey is an essential part of any hopes the Reds have of winning the NL Central. As the Reds await the return of Griffey, the Marlins live in fear of the loss of Cliff Floyd. Floyd has played at an MVP level for a season and change now, finally reaching the heights expected of him when he was an Expos prospect so long ago. Floyd is the one essential Marlin, the player without whom they cannot stay in the race, and rumors that he will be traded -- he's a free agent after this season -- are as regular a part of Miami sports pages as jai-alai results. Let's make this clear: the Marlins are a legitimate contender, as good a team as any in baseball's weakest division. That they are owned by a man who has already ruined one franchise, that they are held up -- erroneously -- as an example of what is wrong with the game, and that they have been held hostage by their original owner long after he sold the team ... none of that matters if they can keep winning. If Jeffrey Loria sells out this team by trading Floyd, it's a clear sign that he's been put in place not to build, but to tear down, that his owning the Marlins is just another piece of Bud Selig's multi-faceted scheme to break the Players Association, consequences be damned. The Marlins have no business making a trade that enhances a future that may never come, not when they're in a present that has them one game out of first place, with the best lineup in the league, and a rotation that makes scouts weep. The future is now in Florida. For the next few days, we can forget the back stories, and just watch two good teams, each with a number of young stars, battle it out. Neither the Reds nor the Marlins are a fluke. These are good teams with talent, and both are going to be relevant deep into this season. Roll those balls, Bud, roll those balls. You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com. |
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