With 38 home runs going into the weekend series against Mark McGwire and St. Louis, Barry Bonds has a far better chance of reaching 70 home runs than I thought he did two weeks ago. However, I don't see teams giving him enough good at-bats in the middle of a pennant race late in the season.

Although I will never doubt Bonds' ability to hit 70, he will be playing under much different circumstances than McGwire did in 1998. I expect the Giants to contend for the playoffs and the NL West title the entire season. And in September, with the unbalanced schedule, the Giants play 24 of their 27 games against NL West teams. Whether Bonds is chasing McGwire's record or not, the teams will be less likely to pitch to Bonds with a pennant on the line.

	SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL
	San Francisco at St. Louis 8 p.m. ET, ESPN Play-by-play: Jon Miller Analyst: Joe Morgan

In 1998, teams pitched to McGwire because the Cardinals were never in contention and finished 19 games out of first place in the NL Central. The pennant race will hurt Bonds' chances. Teams will only pitch to him when there is no place to put him. Plus, Jeff Kent is not having the same kind of season he had a year ago as the league's MVP. I have already seen Bonds walked with a runner on third base and one out or less. Although I do not anticipate Bonds' home-run rate slowing down, he is in a tough situation.

As he continues to hit home runs and people talk about his chances for 70, Bonds must let the public be a part of the home-run race. In 1998, the fans embraced McGwire and Sammy Sosa because they felt part of the historic experience. Likewise, Bonds will need to take the time to talk to the reporters.

Remember, McGwire started out a bit testy and did not embrace the chase for Roger Maris' record right away. But I remember a Sunday night game in Chicago when McGwire began to change his perspective. He saw how Sosa was just laughing, doing interviews and having a great time. I'm sure he and Sosa had a conversation about it. Suddenly, McGwire realized the media exposure could be fun and began enjoying it more for the rest of the season.

Bonds will not let the influx of media affect his performance. Even if the media hounds him, Bonds' personality allows him to block everything out. Barry will continue to be Barry on the field.

Rather than the media, opposing pitchers are the only ones who may keep Bonds from making home-run history.

Here are more questions for the week:

Can Luis Gonzalez, with 31 home runs, be this year's version of Sammy Sosa in 1998?
Like Bonds, Gonzalez is swinging the bat well and can continue to pile up home runs. It helps to have another hitter in the home-run race. McGwire and Sosa fed off each other in 1998, and Bonds and Gonzalez can do the same.

Unless Gonzalez catches or passes Bonds, he won't face the same media scrutiny. But I believe Bonds will remain out front, with Gonzalez second. Bonds is more suited to chase the home-run record because he hits more home runs to all fields. He has hit almost as many home runs to center field as to right field.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, pulls the ball more and tends to be hot and cold. When his timing is perfect, as it is now, Gonzalez can pull the ball into the right-field seats. Otherwise, if his timing is off, his home runs will stop. That's why he has already had a 13-game home-run drought this season.

Even though Gonzalez has never hit more 31 home runs in a season, the past will not keep him from hitting 60 or more. Before Sosa hit 66 and 63 in successive seasons, he had never hit more than 40 in a season. There may be a big difference between 31 and 60 home runs, but I don't see that being an issue with Gonzalez.

	JOE'S DINING GUIDE
	Last weekend my wife, Theresa, and I had a dinner with a friend, Richard Corraine, at a fine restaurant in New York City called Tabla, located on Madison Avenue at 25th Street. We had a great dinner in a beautiful setting that looked out over Central Park. If you go to New York, I highly recommend going to Tabla.

What is more important for the Yankees to address, their bullpen or their rotation?
When I was in New York talking to Joe Torre, he said he needed a few more arms in the bullpen. The way the game is played now, the bullpen is more important than starting pitching because starting pitchers only pitch five or six innings. In the past starting pitchers would pitch seven or eight innings, making them a more important commodity.

Even with Andy Pettitte and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez out, the Yankees could get by with Randy Keisler, Ted Lilly and Adrian "El Duquecito" Hernandez if they had a strong bullpen. All they would have to do is pitch five innings, or six innings every so often. But then the Yankees would need to go to their bullpen and try to get to Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning.

The bullpen has always been the key to the Yankees' success. Looking back over their championship seasons, the bullpen made them a solid team down the stretch. It's like the Giants; they had a solid lineup with Ellis Burks, but they are no longer as formidable with him gone. Similarly, the Yankees' bullpen was solid with Jeff Nelson to go with Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton and Rivera. They are missing only Nelson now, but taking one person out of the bullpen alters the team's ability to close games.

Every team is fragile. There's a thin line between a really good team and an average team. That fine line can be disrupted by removing one person from the lineup or the bullpen. When one player is gone and another is ineffective, the manager is left with fewer options. Torre doesn't have confidence in anyone but Stanton and Rivera in his bullpen. The two are already burned out and in need of rest.

When the Mets rallied and won last Sunday night at Shea Stadium, Torre was forced to go with other pitchers besides Stanton and Rivera. But sometimes, it's better to lose one game than to lose four or five later on because Stanton and Rivera were tired and less than their best.

Do the Cubs have the fewest weaknesses of any team in the NL?
The Cubs are as good as any team in the league. They have two superstar players, Kerry Wood and Sammy Sosa. Superstars are getting underrated because of what Seattle has done without Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey Jr. And I have read where superstars are not what will make teams win or lose, but I disagree. Superstars make everyone better around them.

With the Cubs, Wood is the key. It doesn't matter if Jon Lieber and Kevin Tapani have won more games. Wood has bounced back to be the ace of the staff. The Cubs know he can match up against any pitcher -- Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux -- and have a great chance of winning. That confidence permeates the whole staff.

The players, meanwhile, take their cue from Sosa, who is playing better now than he did as the league's MVP in 1998. Even though he was a fine ballplayer before, he has improved, becoming more consistent in the field and running the bases better. While Wood is leading the staff, Sosa is playing hard and leading by example. Plus, the Cubs also play solid defense.

The question is how the Cubs' bullpen will hold up. Tom "Flash" Gordon has come back to pitch effectively. The Cubs signed him and believed in him after he had Tommy John surgery, and Gordon has filled the closer role well. The Cubs appear to be in good shape, but we'll have to see how they finish out the season.

How much do you expect Jose Canseco to help the White Sox?
It depends on which Canseco shows up. If he keeps getting injured, he will add nothing to the White Sox. But he is still capable of getting hot and having some good games.

Although Canseco will be the DH, Chicago is not looking for him to replace Frank Thomas. The White Sox just want him to add some right-handed punch to what they already have, with Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Paul Konerko. Canseco can get hot for two or three games and carry a team.

What do you think of Cal Ripken's decision to retire?
I'm pleased for Ripken he has decided to retire. He has accomplished just about everything he can in his career, making it time for him to move onto other challenges. He was no longer the same Ripken who won two MVPs, earned Gold Gloves as a shortstop and produced 3,000 hits. He could no longer play at a high level.

Ripken redefined the shortstop position because he combined size (6-foot-4), home-run power and defense. Only Ernie Banks was a better power-hitting shortstop, although Banks later switched to first base. Today's big shortstops, like Alex Rodriguez, looked at Ripken before reaching the major leagues and saw they could play shortstop. But they still needed to have the ability.

Someone else may have come along to prove shortstops could hit for power, but Ripken was the first to hit home runs and produce the same way the corner infielders and outfielders did.

Hall of Fame second baseman Joe Morgan is an analyst for ESPN.