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Tuesday, March 27 Solving the Giambi equation By Rob Neyer ESPN.com | ||||||||||
The Oakland Athletics and Jason Giambi are oh-so close. They've agreed on six years. They've agreed on $90 million. The only thing they haven't agreed on is the no-trade clause. Giambi wants one. The A's don't want to give him one. In fact, A's GM Billy Beane now says that the issue is "non-negotiable."
Grown men with defensible positions? Or a pair of overgrown kids, fighting just because they're stubborn, competitive cusses? A little of both, I guess, but don't fault either Giambi or Beane for holding firm.
Can you imagine what it's like to be traded? Suddenly removed from your teammates-slash-friends, told to move yourself and your possessions to a new city. And oh yeah, your new team wants you in the lineup tomorrow. Yes, there are many wonderful things about playing major-league baseball. My point is that if you could avoid getting traded against your will, you would.
As for Beane, he's smart to hold out. While it's true that no-trade clauses are often voided, it's rarely easy. Typically, a player will waive his no-trade clause for a hefty price, which of course makes the entire proposition a bit more difficult to swing. And as Beane has noted, a franchise operating under severe financial limitations must do everything possible to keep its options open.
So what if they can't work things out? Would losing Giambi, the American League's reigning MVP, signal the premature decline of the apparently ascendant Athletics?
It was pretty clear to me that Alex Rodriguez or Pedro Martinez should have been the MVP last year, but Jason Giambi certainly wasn't a bad choice, and it was wholly consistent with the history of the award (i.e., big RBI man with pennant-winning club). He's a great player, and the A's would miss him.
But is Jason Giambi a future Hall of Famer? The evidence would, I think, suggest that he's not. Statistically, the five most-similar players to Giambi through age 29 were Ryan Klesko (942 Similarity Score), Tim Salmon (935), Bill "Swish" Nicholson (935), Larry Walker (928), and Pedro Guerrero (925). All fine players, but none Hall of Famers or likely future Hall of Famers. (Similarity Scores courtesy of baseball-reference.com.)
Is Jason Giambi going to get better? The evidence would, I think, suggest that he will not. As a group, baseball players are less valuable after they turn 30 than before they turn 30. That's not to say that Giambi's going into the tank now that he's hit the big three-oh. But another MVP award? Probably not.
Is Jason Giambi irreplaceable? Well, he's more irreplaceable than a dishwasher in a Manhattan restaurant is ... but not by much. The A's are practically swimming in big, strong hitters who can play first base, or who could be taught to play first base. Below are three of Oakland's more accomplished minor-league hitters. In the chart below, "Age" refers to each player's age as of July 1, 2001, and "MLE OPS" lists the Major League Equivalency for their OPS's last season (when they were in the high minors):
Age MLE OPS
Jason Hart 22 811
Eric Byrnes 24 782
Mario Valdez 25 850
Hart and Valdez are both first basemen, while Byrnes is a pretty good defensive outfielder. The A's have another kid, outfielder Ryan Ludwick, who hit 29 homers in a tough Class A league last year. No, these guys aren't all first basemen, but in the Athletics' system, it really doesn't matter. The A's have got six distinct positions to fill:
CatcherSecond Base Shortstop Third Base Center Field Hitter From the "Hitter" position, the A's draw their DH, their first baseman, their left fielder, and their right fielder. (This year they've got Johnny Damon, who is something more than "just" a hitter. But he's a luxury that the club won't be able to afford after this season.) Hart, Byrnes and Valdez give them three hitters. Jeremy Giambi -- who should still develop -- and Adam Piatt give them two more. That's five guys, all in their early or mid-20s, each of them likely to become productive major-league players. And that's the key word: become. The Athletics and Giambi tentatively agreed on a six-year contract. In six years, Giambi will be 36 while those other guys will still be in their prime years. I'd bet decent money that at least one of those five will, in four years, be more productive than Jason Giambi. And you know what? There are more where they came from. As I've been arguing recently, there's plenty of major-league talent if you know where to look ... and if there's anyone who knows where to look, it's Billy Beane. He stole Jeremy Giambi from the Royals, and he stole Valdez from the Twins. If he loses Giambi, he'll go out and steal somebody else. So why does Beane even bother with Giambi? Because (1) Giambi's an excellent player, and (2) the A's would take a public-relations hit if he left. The first of those is true, of course. But the second is not as important as most people probably think. The A's aren't going to draw well, no matter who's playing first base. A year ago, though they played an exciting brand of ball and won a division title, the Athletics finished 23rd among the 30 major-league teams in attendance. They'll get a boost this year from last year's success, but that points to a simple equation: if they win they'll draw, and if they don't they won't. There's only one first baseman on this planet who can bring fans to the ballpark all by himself, and he's not Jason Giambi. Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com. |
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