With the world full of books about the Yankees and movies about the Yankees and articles in Sports Illustrated about the Yankees, I'm afraid I'm being swept along with the current. So you can expect at least a column or two about the Yankees this week and next. In the meantime, here's a column about a team as far from the Yankees as you can get ...
Hi Rob,
I just had a quick question about the Padres. I find it rather interesting that every ESPN writer or commentator, when asked a question about the NL West, always states that they expect the division to be "up for grabs" ... with the exception of the Padres.
Is it our pitching that leads to this conclusion? Our hitting? Or both? I think our hitting is better than most observers might think. San Diego is leading the league in walks by a healthy margin, which, along with a decent batting average, has lead to a top-three OBP.
Our pitching doesn't have any top-of-the-line starters, but has so far managed to give us a good RS/RA ratio; in fact, the Pythagorean Method gives us the best winning percentage in the NL West.
You guys at ESPN.com often use these tools, so why not with the Padres?
-- Victor Wang
First off, I have to include myself among the group, "every ESPN writer or commentator," not only because I am, of course, an ESPN.com writer, but also because I, too, predicted a last-place finish for the Padres.
Why? Well, the Padres did finish in last place last year. They finished 12th in run production, and ninth in runs prevented. And for the life of me, before this season I couldn't think of a single position at which the Padres might reasonably have been expected to become appreciably better.
However, there was one positive sign from last season that most (all?) of us apparently missed ... the Padres lost "only" 86 games in 2000, not many at all for a last-place team. Put another way, the Padres won 76 games. Win 10 more, by hook or by crook, and all of sudden you just might be in the thick of a pennant race. And teams improve by 10 games all the time.
Well, maybe not all the time. But it does happen.
And as Victor points out in his letter, the Padres are certainly showing some signs. Yes, they're in last place again, but they're also just two games behind the first-place Dodgers. What's more, the Padres actually sport the best run differential (+19) in their division.
The Padres have drawn 138 walks, tops not only in the National League, but the major leagues. Yes, last week when I wrote that the Mariners led the majors, I was wrong. Then, as now, the Padres -- pitchers hitting and all -- had more walks than the Mariners. This has to be considered a surprise, as the Padres finished ninth in the league with 602 walks last year, 107 fewer than NL-leading San Francisco.
Are we looking at some sort of organizational trend? Well, the Padres' Las Vegas farm club ranked second in the Pacific Coast League last year with 649 walks. But San Diego's other top farm clubs, Double-A Mobile (Southern League) and Class A Rancho Cucamonga (California League), didn't fare particularly well in this area.
Ahh, and then there's Rickey Henderson:
played in 148 games for the 1996 San Diego Padres, who finished third in the National League with 601 walks;
played in 88 games for the 1997 San Diego Padres, who finished fourth in the National League with 604 walks;
played in 32 games for the 1997 Anaheim Angels, who finished fourth in the American League with 617 walks;
played in 152 games for the 1998 Oakland Athletics, who finished second in the American League with 633 walks;
played in 121 games for the 1999 New York Mets, who finished second in the National League with 717 walks;
played in 31 games for the 2000 New York Mets, who finished second in the National League with 675 walks;
and played in 92 games for the 2000 Seattle Mariners, who finished first in the major leagues with 775 walks.
Anybody else notice a pattern here?
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Pedro vs. Moose
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Pedro
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Moose
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IP
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50
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48
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K
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72
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44
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W-L
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4-0
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3-3
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ERA
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1.44
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3.38
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Mussina pitched seven innings yesterday and allowed just one run ... but so did Martinez. Interestingly enough, after throwing 136 pitches in his last start, this time Pedro was limited to 92 pitches, leading to some scary moments in the ninth as Oakland almost came back. By the way, Brad Radke, at 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA, is the Cy Young at this point. |
No, I'm not saying that when Rickey Henderson arrives on the scene, his baby-faced young teammates gather around his feet, listen to his fascinating tales of plate discipline, and then go forth and multiply their bases on balls. Obviously, one of the reasons that Rickey's teams draw a lot of walks is because he he draws a lot of walks. Also, teams that acquire Henderson are, presumably, teams that place a high value on walks (as opposed to, for example, the Kansas City Royals).
But the facts are pretty clear; where Rickey goes, walks follow. Maybe it's a coincidence that the Padres have vaulted from ninth in the league to first, but maybe it's not. If they can continue their patient ways -- say, finish the season in the top five in the NL -- then they'll score more runs than they did last year, and they'll quite likely win more games, too.
Long-term, though, I don't see the Padres as serious contenders. Last year, they totaled 157 home runs; only the Phillies (144) hit fewer. This year, they've hit 26 home runs; no National League team has hit fewer (though three other teams have also hit 26). Walks are wonderful, but they don't constitute an offense all by themselves.
And the pitching/defense? Last year, the Padres finished ninth in runs allowed, eighth in ERA. Today, they're 10th in runs allowed (per game), and seventh in ERA. And that's probably about where they're going to stay. The Padres have some decent starters, but they don't have a legitimate ace, and only Brian Tollberg and Adam Eaton seem to have good long-term potential.
So what of the Padres? No, they're not going to win the West. But if they can keep drawing walks, they can win as many games as they lose. And that would stand as a significant accomplishment for the division's poorest sister.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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