I have seen the future of Houston Astros pitching, and it throws hard. Very hard.
Before I get into specifics, though, riddle me this ... How many organizations can match Houston's young hurlers when it comes to pure strikeout power?
Billy Wagner ... well, Billy Wagner's not "young" any longer, turns 30 next month. But four years ago, when he was 25, Wagner struck out 106 hitters in 66 innings.
Scott Elarton is now 25 years old, and struggling. But before he joined the Astros in 1998, Elarton struck out 596 hitters in 684 minor-league innings; in 1997 and '98, his last two minor-league seasons, Elarton struck out 291 hitters in 279 innings.
Wade Miller is 24, and he's struck out 168 hitters in 200 innings since arriving in the major leagues for good last July. (Those numbers just might be even better if Miller hadn't thrown approximately 125 pitches in successive April starts).
Roy Oswalt is 23, and he entered the 2001 season with 497 strikeouts in 493 minor-league innings. This year, Oswalt struck out 32 hitters in 31 innings for Triple-A New Orleans, which earned him a summons from the big club. Since putting on the Astros uniform, Oswalt has struck out 26 hitters in 31 innings, posted a 3.19 ERA and a 4-1 record.
Next in the pipeline? An impressive young man named Tim Redding.
Redding was drafted by the Astros in 1997. And like Oswalt, Redding was not a high pick; the Astros took Redding in the 20th round, a year after drafting Oswalt in the 23rd round. Redding's listed at six feet even and 180 pounds, Oswalt at six feet and 170. And of course, both are strikeout artists. A year ago, Redding struck out 192 hitters in 181 minor-league innings, most of them coming in the tough Class A Florida State League. He opened this season with Double-A Round Rock, and in a dozen starts there he went 10-2 with a 2.18 ERA and K'd 113 hitters in 91 innings.
And last night, I was lucky enough to see Redding in Tacoma, where he made his first Triple-A start for the New Orleans Zephyrs. The last time I was at Cheney Stadium, April of 2000, I saw Ryan Anderson make his Triple-A debut for the Rainiers. That night, Anderson struck out 10 Salt Lake Buzzers in six innings. Watching Anderson from a ringside seat, I felt like I was witness to The Next Big Thing. Or perhaps the next Big Unit, as Anderson scrapes the ceiling at nearly seven feet tall.
Of course, he's become neither of those yet. After a solid Triple-A season, Anderson ran into the dreaded arm problems, and won't pitch at all this year after reconstructive surgery this spring.
But every season brings another great pitching prospect, and Tim Redding is certainly a great pitching prospect. It's one thing to see numbers on a page or a computer screen -- and make no mistake, Redding's numbers are mighty impressive -- but it's something else to actually see the guy pitch. Both experiences are thrilling alone, but somehow incomplete without the other, just as I highly recommend reading Ian Frazier's masterpiece, "Great Plains," and visiting the Great Plains yourself.
So how did Redding look? He's more polished than Anderson was a year ago, not quite as polished as Oswalt is right now, and one hell of a prospect. In fact, after watching him the word "prospect" may not do Redding justice. He could, right this very minute, do quite well in a major-league bullpen. In fact, given the Astros' tendency to start their prospective starters in the bullpen, there's really little reason to keep Redding in the minors much longer. Maybe it's time to just give up on Jose Lima, he of the sparkly 6.79 ERA over his last 249 innings.
Last night, though, Redding was essentially a two-pitch pitcher. They're two really good pitches -- a 90-plus fastball that occasionally hits 94 or 95 on the JUGS gun, and a sharp slider -- but most starters need a third pitch to keep the hitters honest. Redding does have a changeup, and last night he threw it exactly once ... in his pregame warm-up routine. Redding's "changeup" of choice was instead his curveball, but he didn't really know where that was going most of the time. It might have just been the adjustment to a new team and a new level, but Redding simply didn't have good command of his pitches.
And yet, he still managed to toss seven innings of shutout baseball, seven innings that included eight strikeouts and only six baserunners, against the team with the best record in the Pacific Coast League. Which leads one to wonder, what might Redding do with command of one (or more) of his slow offerings? If the Astros are careful, and his body cooperates, we should find out later this summer, or perhaps next spring.
So where do the Astros get all these guys? Different places. But I believe that the Astros give themselves an advantage because they're not afraid of short right-handers.
Let me explain ... for a long time, there has been a prejudice against "short" right-handed pitchers. Why not left-handed pitchers? You got me, but I suppose it's because teams are always so desperate for lefties that they'll take whatever they can get. But righties, no. This prejudice is so strong that many scouts simply won't turn in a report on a right-handed pitchers shorter than six feet. If he's 5-10 or 5-11, the scout will simply lie, and write down "6-0" on the form. Of course, this sort of subterfuge can only go so far. When Astros executives see those "6-0"s on the form, they must know six feet doesn't always mean six feet. And they still draft these supposed six-footers. Yes, they wait a while, but that's presumably because they know they can. Redding and Oswalt, who both might wind up as rotation anchors someday, were steals as 20th- and 23rd-round picks.
Wade Miller's not a little guy -- he's listed at 6-2, which might or might not be inflated by an inch or two, as is the fashion -- but he too was a 20th-round pick (in 1996).
Meanwhile, Elarton (who's 6-8) and Billy Wagner (who, with a bushy hairstyle, stands 5-11 in his baseball spikes) were both first-round picks. Now, if only the Astros could find some great pitchers in Rounds 2 through 19 ...
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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