You don't have to trust me, but I promise you that I wrote what is below on Saturday night, on the eve of Game 4 of the American League Championship Series ...

Here in Seattle and elsewhere, Paul Abbott's home/road stats this season have routinely been quoted. But it goes further than that. Abbott has been significantly better at home for two years running now. So I won't even bother with the 2001 stats; here are his combined numbers for the last two seasons:

       IP   H   BB    ERA
Home  161  123  73   3.18 
Road  181  186  94   5.18

Yes, I know that it's not a huge number of innings we're talking about. And I also know that Safeco Field is a great pitcher's park. But two full runs of ERA seems like something worth noticing. And interestingly enough, this weekend the New York sportswriters have managed to turn Lou Piniella into a stats geek, as they discovered that he looks at the history of batter/pitcher matchups.

The two arguments against Joel Pineiro are good ones. First, he's young. So perhaps a critical game in Yankee Stadium isn't the best place for his postseason debut. And second, he hasn't started a game since September 8, and he hasn't pitched at all since October 6. There's nothing that can be done about the first of those, and the second is obviously Piniella's fault. You've got a guy with a 2.05 ERA, and you can't find even a single inning of work for him in the postseason? Seems to me like a strange way to run your pitching staff. But at this moment, it would probably be foolish to throw Pineiro into the fray, 2.05 ERA be damned.

So after thinking about it Saturday night, I concluded that Abbott was Piniella's best option given the existing conditions. I just don't understand why Piniella left himself in that position. As it turned out, of course, Abbott pitched well enough last night, and so for at least a few hours, we analytical types in the Pacific Northwest forgot all about Joel Pineiro and his 2.05 ERA.

But while I didn't agree, and still don't agree, with Piniella's machinations regarding Pineiro, I loved the game plan his hitters brought to Game 4. When asked about his team's approach against Clemens before the game, Piniella responded, "Probably to stay a little patient. We know he has had -- what is it, the hamstring? -- and make him throw as many pitches as possible. I think that would be a good game plan. Now, you don't want to fall consistently behind, obviously. But if we can get him to throw a lot of pitches early, I think it would benefit us."

A good game plan, and Piniella's got the hitters to make it work. After two innings, the Mariners hadn't yet collected a base hit ... but they'd drawn two walks and, perhaps more important, they'd forced Clemens to throw 39 pitches. After three innings, it was four walks and 61 pitches. After four innings, it was four walks and 76 pitches. For Paul Abbott, meanwhile, it was six walks and 71 pitches. As David Schoenfield noted, "I think this is the worst best pitching duel I've ever seen," as the two clubs had combined for just one hit (John Olerud's single).

During the second inning Tim McCarver said, "The pitch count with Clemens isn't nearly as important as it is with most pitchers," but I think he's absolutely wrong, at least right now. Clemens hasn't pitched seven full innings since early September; he's obviously not as durable these days as he's been in the past. In his last three starts, Clemens has thrown 96, 82, and 90 pitches.

And if Clemens has somewhere between 80 and 100 pitches in him, aren't you better off making him throw those pitches in five or six innings rather than seven or eight? Because as we all know, if you don't get into the Yankee bullpen until the seventh or eighth, you're quite probably going to lose.

Sure enough, when the fifth inning began, Ramiro Mendoza was getting warmed up. When the sixth inning began, Clemens was sitting on the bench and watching Mendoza pitch to Bret Boone. And it seemed that the pitch count with Clemens was important after all.

Abbott didn't make it to the sixth, either. But even though he walked eight Yankees, you have to admit that he justified Piniella's faith, because Abbott didn't allow a single hit. Or a single run. And as much as I like Joel Pineiro, even I have to admit that he probably wouldn't have done quite that well.

One of the things that I find both amusing and frustrating about postseason baseball is the media coverage, as we (the fans) are told that everything is two or three times more important than it actually is. When the Mariners lost a couple of close games to open the series, well of course it was because they simply couldn't take the pressure of playing against the invulnerable Yankees. And further, they certainly didn't have any chance to come back, not after being demoralized like that.

And then, when the Mariners somehow shook off their malaise and scored 14 runs in Game 3, it was if a switch had been flipped, and the Mariners who led the majors in run production were back.

Except baseball doesn't work like that, friends. I believe that Earl Weaver might be the smartest baseball man who ever lived, and it was Earl Weaver who said, "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher." Joe Torre repeated the line after losing Game 3.

No, it wasn't Big Mo that beat the Mariners last night. It was just Mo. The moment that Bernie Williams hit that baseball a few rows into the right-field seats, tying the game in the bottom of the eighth, one couldn't help but think that Mo Rivera would shut down the M's for as long as it took. That's just what he did ... and it only took him three pitches.

Rob can be reached at rob.neyer@dig.com, and to order his new book, "Feeding the Green Monster", click here.