Welcome to the greatest National League pennant race of all time.
"I can't ever remember a year like this," says Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, "where every division has a close race and the wild card is even closer. We're going to have an incredible finish."
Well, there's a reason Hunsicker can't remember a year like this. And it isn't anything he needs to take Ginko for.
|  | | Curt Schilling is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts in August for the NL West-leading Diamondbacks. |
There has never been a race in the National League like this one.
Through Monday, no team led its division by more than three games. Five clubs were within 2½ games in the wild-card free-for-all. And eight teams were within four losses -- or a .039 winning percentage -- of each other.
"It's incredible," says Phillies rookie pitcher Brandon Duckworth. "You look at the standings, and everybody's all right there. It's not like the Mariners and the other league. That's for sure."
We've looked back through every NL season since 1876, and we're convinced that what we're seeing in this league this year is thoroughly unprecedented. Peruse the facts:
Through Monday, no team in the National League was playing at a pace to win 95 games. Since division play started in 1969, there have been only four nonstrike seasons where that happened in the NL -- all in the '80s (1989, '83, '82 and '80).
This is year seven of the wild-card era. And it's been rare when we've seen a three-team scramble, let alone a five-team scrum. Only in 1998 -- when the Cubs, Giants and Mets went down to the last weekend within a game of each other -- has there been anything close to this in the NL.
In the quarter-century of division play before the wild card, from 1969 through '93, there were only four division races in which the top three teams were bunched within four games: in 1987 (Cardinals by three over the Mets and four over the Expos), 1982 (Braves by one game over the Dodgers and two over the Giants), 1980 (Astros winning a one-game playoff to beat the Dodgers, with the Reds 3½ back) and, of course, 1973 (when five games separated the first-place Mets from the fifth-place Cubs in the nobody-wanted-to-win-it NL East).
And believe it or not, back before division play, there was only one NL season from 1876 through 1968 that produced a massive multi-team jumble. But it took the epic collapse of the 1964 Phillies to manufacture that finish, in which the Cardinals outlasted the Reds and Phillies by a game, with the Giants only three games back and the Braves just five back.
So the upshot of all this is a lot of frazzled players and GMs, and a bunch of confused scoreboard watchers. Listen to them:
From Arizona's Curt Schilling on what it's like to pitch in these games: "These are gut wrenchers right now. The races in this league are all so tight, one mistake can cost you a game, and one game can cost you the pennant."
From Houston's Jeff Bagwell on playing what seems like one big series after another: "It just feels like it's going so slow. Every game means so much, you put so much into it every night, that it seems like it's going in slow motion."
From Philadelphia's Brian Hunter on trying to figure out how to even watch the scoreboard: "To me, it's important not to watch it -- at least not all of it. The whole key, in this kind of race, is to win your division. If you win your division, you don't have to worry about the wild card. At least in your division, you've got some control."
From Hunsicker, on the toll all this takes on the participants: "It certainly creates a lot of excitement in a lot of cities, but it creates a lot of anxiety if you're in the middle of it. For us in the business, we all live to be in a pennant race. But that doesn't mean you can enjoy it. You're miserable if you're in a pennant race, and you're miserable if you're out of it -- just for different reasons."
|
“ |
It just feels like it's going so slow. Every game means so much, you put so much into it every night, that it seems like it's going in slow
motion. ” |
|
|
— Jeff Bagwell, Astros first baseman, on the NL pennant race |
But of all these teams, two of them seem to have emerged this month as the most stable and most dangerous -- the Diamondbacks and Astros.
Arizona is 15-7 since Aug. 3, has lost only one of its last five series against the other NL contenders and has seen its No. 3, 4 and 5 starters (i.e., all starters not named Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling) go 5-2 over the last three weeks.
"We don't have a sense of panic over anything," says Luis Gonzalez. "We went into Pittsburgh. Randy and Schill both lost games there, and those are games you think you're going to win. But we've got a veteran club. We don't get too high or too low over that stuff. We just kind of peck away and see what happens."
"That's one reason it's good to play on such a veteran team," says Schilling. "We don't ride the roller coaster."
The Astros, meanwhile, are 16-7 since adding Pedro Astacio and Mike Williams at the trading deadline. They've gone from 4½ behind the Cubs to three games in front in that time.
While they're suddenly sweating out an MRI on Astacio's shoulder, they've spent the last few weeks playing like a team with a we're-going-to-win look in its eye.
"There's something about our club I really like right now," Bagwell says. "There's a good feeling here. Everyone talks about our young pitchers and what good stuff they have. But I like the way they handle themselves -- not just physically, but what they have inside them.
"Anybody can bring up young guys who throw 95, 96 these days. But our kids throw a pitch, and they can't wait to get the ball back from the catcher. They're not scared by any of this. And guys like that are hard to find."
In September, crazy things can happen. So who knows where all this is heading? But Schilling looks into his personal crystal ball and says: "It's going to be the greatest last week ever. You could realistically have seven teams alive for a playoff spot in the last week. How cool would that be?"
Well, cool enough to start looking ahead, anyway. In a season in which all of these teams have beaten up on the sub-.500 clubs, we conclude this topic by presenting the records of the eight NL contenders against each other (through Monday), and how many games they have remaining against the other teams in the race:
Los Angeles, 28-23; games left: 19
Arizona, 29-25; games left: 12
Houston, 24-20; games left: 19
Chicago, 27-27; games left: 13
St. Louis, 25-26; games left: 12
Atlanta, 21-23; games left: 13
San Francisco, 23-27; games left: 18
Philadelphia, 22-27; games left: 7
Miscellaneous rumblings
One reason Schilling seems better than ever this year is that he's broken out a big overhand curveball, which he rarely used in the past.
"David West actually showed it to me six or seven years ago," Schilling says. "We were playing catch one day, and I fooled around with it, and I said, 'This is awesome.' Then I tried throwing it in the bullpen, I threw it into the bleachers, and I said, 'Well, maybe not.'
"But it's just one of those deals where it took me a long time to get comfortable with it. Now, even though I'm throwing it, I'm not throwing it enough. Old habits are hard to break.
"But when I'm throwing it for strikes, it's a third strikeout pitch. You're talking about a 20-mph difference (between curve and fastball). It's a pitch I throw at 69-70 mph when I'm throwing it right. You add that to the fastball, the split and the slider, you're almost changing game plans."
The hitters don't want to hear this, but Schilling also is working on a straight change. Of course, he might not be unveiling it until about 2004.
"I'm still fooling around with the change like I did with the curveball two years ago," Schilling says. "I just haven't gotten confident enough to throw it in a game. But I will."
The players' union continues to say nothing publicly about the labor situation or its third cousin, contraction. But agents believed to be familiar with the union's thinking continue to express great skepticism about contraction and management's motives in mulling it so seriously.
"If this was not a labor situation, there's no way they'd even consider that," says one agent. "Sure, we've got some franchises with problems, but the problems are curable. There have always been franchise problems in baseball. But to solve them this way (via contraction) is just a Trojan Horse on the labor side. It's just part of the shell game."
Back when management people used to speak about contraction, they expressed great outrage over this sort of talk. But it appears they'll have a mess of convincing to do to sell that conviction to the other side.
"You hear Bud would like to extend the current deal one more year," says one prominent agent. "What they really ought to do is extend it two more years and take that time to work together to solve the problems of the game, to get the teams moved that need to move, into markets that could make baseball stronger than ever, and to get some of these other clubs into new stadiums. But I doubt that's what this is about."
The return of Pedro Martinez obviously doesn't solve all of the Red Sox pitching problems. But he sure can't hurt their scuffling rotation, which has gotten six wins from starters other than Hideo Nomo and David Cone since Pedro's last start, back on June 26.
Here's a look at how the eight starters the Red Sox used fared in between Pedro sightings:
David Cone, 5-1, 3.44
Hideo Nomo, 5-1, 4.76
Tim Wakefield, 2-7, 5.81
Frank Castillo, 1-2, 5.79
Bret Saberhagen, 1-2, 6.00
Rolando Arrojo, 2-1, 2.28
Tomo Ohka, 0-3, 11.25
Casey Fossum, 0-0, 3.60
The bigger the numbers Sammy Sosa piles up, the more scouts scratch their heads over why he gets so many pitches to hit.
"Every home run he hits, we look at each other and ask, 'Why?' " says one scout. "If you're going to pitch to the guy, you've got to pitch him inside and knock him off the plate, and change speeds and make him chase. Instead, he keeps getting fastballs middle out, which he loves to drive. I'll tell you what. If it's my team, I'd walk him in a 2-2 game with the bases loaded. I don't care what Fred McGriff has done. At least you can pitch to him."
Evidence of how many pitches Sosa gets out over the plate: Of his 51 homers, 28 have been hit to center, right-center or right field.
As part of the Devil Rays' deal with No. 1 pick Dewon Brazelton, they've agreed to add him to the big-league roster Sept. 1 so he can have the distinction of going right from the draft to the big leagues.
But there's a down side to that decision. A couple of weeks ago, when negotiations seemed "hopelessly" stalled, Brazelton called the Rays' $4 million offer "chump change" and accused the club of "smacking me in the face."
Those quotes, needless to say, attracted the attention of a clubhouse in which very few players have made $4 million in their entire careers. And you can bet Brazelton will get to hear all about it.
"These kids don't realize the pressure and the expectations they're putting on themselves," says one club executive. "It's mind-boggling to me."
It's also clear, from talking to major-league players, that most would have no problem with some sort of draft-pick salary cap or bonus cap, or with an NFL-type slotting system for draft picks.
One National League GM was bemused by the Dodgers' recent jabs at free-agent-to-be Chan Ho Park, because it was hard not to think there was at least a minor contract-negotiating subplot.
| |
|
| |
| 2001 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GM |
W-L |
IP |
H |
K |
ERA |
| 28 |
12-9 |
192.1 |
139 |
187 |
2.95 |
|
|
"I think Chan Ho's a hell of a pitcher," the GM said. "But he's not worth $20 million. You're certainly not going to pay him more than Kevin Brown if you're that team, because he doesn't have the track record. If he wants to stay there, he's going to have to slot in somewhere between Brown and (Darren) Dreifort.
"And if he's going to leave, how many teams can afford a $20 million pitcher, anyway? This guy's not Pedro. He's not Schilling. He's not Johnson. He's good, but he's not in the elite. If you're the other team and he's out there, you don't have the same feeling you get when Kevin Brown is out there. Kevin Brown just has that look that says, 'This is my game.' You don't sense that when Chan Ho Park is out there."
Then again, we've heard this kind of talk before in mid-summer -- and then heard very different talk when signing season rolls around in November and December.
After a conference call last week in which baseball's controversial three-way tie-breaking procedure was discussed yet again, Marlins GM Dave Dombrowski says he's resigned to the fact that the rule won't be changed this season.
As we reported last week, general managers voted overwhelmingly last November to recommend a change in the tie-breaking procedure. But the players' union still hasn't signed off on any changes.
So if, for example, the Diamondbacks and Giants tie for first in the NL West after 162 games, and have the same record as the wild-card survivor in another division -- say, the Cubs -- the second-place team, the Cubs, would automatically make the playoffs. Then the Diamondbacks and Giants would have a one-game playoff for the final playoff spot.
Under the GMs' proposal, the loser of the Diamondbacks-Giants playoff game would then have played the Cubs for the wild-card berth. The GMs' thinking was that a team that finished second (the Cubs) shouldn't be rewarded, while a team that tied for first (the Giants or D-Backs) was being penalized just for being in the wrong division.
But the union is concerned about delaying the start of the playoffs and about a potential travel nightmare for a team that might have to play four huge games in four cities in four days.
There once was a time when people wondered whether Arizona's funky submarine machine, Byung-Hyun Kim, would throw enough strikes or have enough presence to close. You don't hear that talk much anymore.
The East Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that since Todd Stottlemyre gave Kim a lecture on focus in the third week in June (no word on what language the lecture was in), Kim is 10 for 11 in save opportunities, has given up 22 hits in 45 innings, and has a 65-13 strikeout-walk ratio. And he has allowed the first hitter to reach base in exactly two of 33 appearances. In Kim's 13 1/3 innings since Aug. 1: 19 strikeouts, 1 walk, 6 hits.
"With guys like that, it's not a matter of 'if,' says Schilling. "It's 'when.' It's just ridiculous what this guy does. I don't know of a more sure thing around. I don't mean that as any disrespect to anyone else. But just look at the numbers. It's staggering what he does. And he doesn't really do it with arm strength. He can not have his best fastball and still get you out. And not many guys can say that."
Finally, how desperate are some teams for an extra left-handed bat down the stretch? Several clubs have been scouting Mark Whiten and Luis Polonia in the Mexican League.
Triviality
Sammy Sosa is one of five players who have had 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons every year since 1996. Can you name the other four men who came into this season riding the same streak?
(Answer at bottom.)
Useless information dept.
With two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning of a tie game Sunday in Philadelphia, Luis Gonzalez was heading for the plate when Phillies manager Larry Bowa suddenly sprinted for the mound. On the way back to the dugout, Bowa stopped to deliver the same message to Gonzalez.
"He said, 'I'm not gonna let any more 50-homer men beat me,' " Gonzalez reported, "with a couple of expletives thrown in there."
Even though Gonzalez only has 48 homers, Bowa did bestow an honor on him that Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa haven't received this year -- an intentional walk with nobody on base.
The Elias Sports Bureau's Randy Robles reports there have been five other instances of that happening this year:
May 13: Manny Ramirez vs. Oakland (10th inning)
June 5: Manny Ramirez vs. Detroit (16th inning)
June 21: Jason Giambi vs. Seattle (5th inning)
July 31: Mike Piazza vs. Houston (10th inning)
Aug. 1: Jim Thome vs. Oakland (7th inning)
Needless to say, Roger Clemens' 17-1 record isn't exactly the kind of thing that happens to every pitcher. So, with the help of Elias, we've compiled the current anti-Clemens club (most losses over their last 17 wins):
Bryan Rekar (17-37)
John Thomson (17-35)
Bobby Witt (17-34)
Here's something you don't see every day: Opposing pitchers hitting a triple in the same game. Happened last Tuesday in Florida -- Eric Gagne tripling for the Dodgers, Brad Penny tripling for the Marlins.
| |  | |
| Penny |
| |  | |
| Gagne |
So how weird was this? For one thing, all the other pitchers in the National League combined have hit as many triples this season (two) as those two pitchers hit in that game.
But far more amazing, Elias' Randy Robles reports this was the first game in which opposing pitchers tripled since September 15, 1965, when Bob Shaw (Giants) and Robin Roberts (Astros) did it in a game at the Astrodome. And clearly, it doesn't pay to triple, because neither of those two was involved in the decision -- nor were Penny and Gagne.
Reds rookie Adam Dunn may have opened more eyes than any midseason call-up in years. He's the first rookie to hit 10 home runs in any calendar month since David Justice did it in August, 1990. And since 1990, according to Elias, only four players have hit their first 10 big-league homers in fewer games than Dunn (who did it in just 34 games):
25 games: Kevin Maas, Yankees (hit No. 10 on Aug. 2, 1990)
27 games: Shane Spencer, Yankees (Sept. 27, 1998)
30 games: Albert Pujols, Cardinals (May 7, 2001)
32 games: Jose Cruz Jr., Mariners (July 11, 1997)
34 games: Adam Dunn, Reds (Aug. 25, 2001)
Two weeks ago, Milwaukee's Mac Suzuki made this column for having as many teams this year (three) as wins. Now he's back, because last Wednesday and Thursday, he won a game in relief one day after losing one as a starter.
Only one other pitcher had done that in the last 15 years -- and just four have done it since 1980, according to Elias:
May 9-10, 1994: Rene Arocha, Cardinals
June 8-9, 1986: Ed Whitson, Yankees
June 9-10, 1984: Mark Langston, Mariners
May 2-3, 1982: Ed Lynch, Mets
If the A's have one persistent worry heading down the stretch, it's the nine blown saves by closer Jason Isringhausen -- most of any closer in baseball.
It's not unprecedented for a team to reach the World Series with that many blown saves. But since the Rolaids Relief Awards people began keeping blown saves in 1988, the only team that has gotten to the Series with a closer that blew nine saves was the '91 Twins, with Rick Aguilera. Of course, that team won the World Series. So clearly, it isn't necessarily fatal.
But here's a look at how many saves each World Series team's primary closer has blown during the regular season, dating back to '88, courtesy of Scott Lagano, of Wirz and Associates:
1988: Dennis Eckersley (A's), 8; Jay Howell (Dodgers), 6
1989: Eckersley, 6; Craig Lefferts (Giants), 4
1990: Eckersley, 2; Randy Myers (Reds), 6
1991: Aguilera, 9; Juan Berenguer (Braves), 1
1992: Tom Henke (Blue Jays), 3; Alejandro Pena (Braves), 3
1993: Duane Ward (Blue Jays), 6; Mitch Williams (Phillies), 6
1994: No World Series
1995: Mark Wohlers (Braves), 4; Jose Mesa (Indians), 5
1996: John Wetteland (Yankees), 4; Wohlers, 5
1997: Mesa, 5; Robb Nen (Marlins), 7
1998: Mariano Rivera (Yankees), 5; Trevor Hoffman (Padres), 1
1999: Rivera, 4; John Rocker (Braves), 7
2000: Rivera, 5; Armando Benitez (Mets), 5
You'll note that in five of those nine World Series in which one club's closer had more blown saves than the other, the team whose closer blew more saves won. So draw your own conclusions.
More proof strikeouts are overrated: Randy Johnson lost a 16-strikeout game in Pittsburgh last week. The Unit now owns eight games in his career of 16 whiffs or more. He has won just half of them (two losses, two no-decisions).
The amazing Ichiro has had two hitting streaks of more than 20 games this year, plus a 15-gamer. Last player to have three streaks of 15-plus in one year, according to Elias: Cecil Cooper, in 1980.
Four starting pitchers have ERAs under 1.50 this month: Javier Vazquez (4-0, 0.68), Barry Zito (4-1, 1.17), Kelvim Escobar (4-0, 1.45) and Darryl Kile (3-1, 1.46).
Before this year, only three times in history had a player hit three home runs in a game twice in the same calendar month. Now it's been done twice just this season -- by Sammy Sosa in August, by Carlos Delgado in April.
The complete list:
Johnny Mize July 13-10, 1938
Willie Stargell April 10-21, 1971
Doug DeCinces Aug. 3-9, 1982
Carlos Delgado April 4-20, 2001
Sammy Sosa Aug. 9-22, 2001
You don't want to get into that Cardinals bullpen these days for more reasons than one.
Home runs hit by Cardinals relievers this season: 2 (Mike Matthews, Gene Stechschulte).
Home runs hit by Cardinals starters: 1 (Darryl Kile)
The Phillies are attempting to do something no team has done since 1984. The Allentown (Pa.) Morning Call's Don Bostrom reports that the last team to make it to the postseason with three rookie starters was the 1984 Royals, with Bret Saberhagen (age 20), Mark Gubicza (age 21) and Danny Jackson (age 22).
But those three went a combined 22-31 for a team that sneaked into the playoffs with 84 wins. The Phillies' three rookie starters -- Brandon Duckworth, David Coggin and Nelson Figueroa -- were a combined 10-7 (with a 3.39 ERA) through Sunday.
In that insane 11-10 game the Devil Rays and Orioles played last Wednesday, Tampa Bay's Jason Tyner did something that was almost impossible: He got a hit in the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Devil Rays public-relations genius Rick Vaughn asked Elias to check it out. Last man to do it before Tyner: his manager, Hal McRae, on April 24, 1971.
Junior Griffey and Mark McGwire have spent almost their entire careers playing in the same division. So how incredible is it that last Tuesday marked only the third time they've ever homered in the same game? The others: Sept. 22, 1995 at Seattle, and May 5, 2000 at Cincinnati.
Long night's journey into Sunday
Finally, a few fabulous factoids from that 18-inning Red Sox-Rangers game that started Saturday evening at 7:06 p.m. (Central time) and didn't conclude until well after "Saturday Night Live" (at 1:41 a.m.):
The Red Sox also went 18 innings (against the Tigers) on June 5, making them the first team to play two games of 18 innings or longer since the '89 Dodgers played two 22-inning games.
But the Sox also played a 19-inning game last year in Seattle. So that makes them the first team to play three games of 18 innings-plus over any two-season span since the 1979-80 Padres went 19 against the Pirates on Aug. 25, 1979, 20 against the Astros on Aug. 15, 1980 and 18 against the Mets on Aug. 26, 1980).
The Sox and Rangers scored 14 runs in the first 7 2/3 innings Saturday -- then went 87 consecutive batters without either club scoring.
Naturally, the losing pitcher (Derek Lowe) gave up none of the 29 hits in this game. And Tim Wakefield, who was the winning pitcher in the previous Sox 18-inning marathon, blew a save in this one, adding another three hours to everyone's lives.
And better keep that coffee pot brewing. Counting that 18-inning Giants-Diamondbacks game this year, this was the third 18-inning game of the season. There had been two in the previous seven seasons combined.
The Sultan's Corner
By hitting 16 homers this month, Sammy Sosa has joined only Rudy York, Albert Belle and Mark McGwire among players who have hit at least 16 home runs in a month twice in their careers. The complete list, courtesy of the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David Vincent:
Sammy Sosa, Cubs, June '98, 20
Rudy York, Tigers, Aug. '37, 18
Albert Belle, Indians, Sept. '95, 17
Willie Mays, Giants, Aug. '65, 17
Babe Ruth, Yankees, Sept. '27, 17
Rudy York, Tigers, Aug. '43, 17
Barry Bonds, Giants, May '01, 17
Albert Belle, White Sox, July '98, 16
Hank Greenberg, Tigers, Sept. '46, 16
Ralph Kiner, Pirates, Sept. '49, 16
Mickey Mantle, Yankees, May '56, 16
Mark McGwire, Cardinals, May '98, 16
Mark McGwire, Cardinals, July '99, 16
Sammy Sosa, Cubs, Aug. '01, 16
Thanks in part, but not in whole, to Mike Hampton, the Rockies' pitching staff has now become the first staff in the DH era to hit 10 home runs in a season -- and the first in any era since Blue Moon Odom's '69 Oakland A's. (Odom hit five for that team, and Lew Krausse bopped four.)
The Sultan reports Colorado is only the seventh staff in history to make 10 home run trots in one year -- and is just two short of the modern record. The others to do this:
Chicago, NL, 1887, 16
Chicago, AL, 1956, 12
Cleveland, AL, 1949, 11
Brooklyn, NL, 1955, 11
New York, NL, 1934, 10
Oakland, AL, 1969, 10
Best since the DH era:
Atlanta, NL, 1973, 7
For the first time in 12 years, Barry Bonds hit a home run as a pinch-hitter last week. (His previous pinch homer: July 5, 1989, hitting for Neal Heaton, off Steve Bedrosian, against the Giants.) According to the Sultan, only five players in history went longer between pinch homers. The top 10 in this fascinating category:
Jamie Quirk: 5,486 days: 9/20/1975 to 9/27/1990, 15 years
Hank Sauer: 5,193 days: 5/3/1942 to 7/21/1956, 14 years
Willie Horton: 4,715 days: 9/14/1963 to 8/11/1976, 13 years
Dixie Walker: 4,696 days: 6/11/1933 to 4/20/1946, 13 years
Andre Dawson: 4,662 days: 7/14/1978 to 4/19/1991, 13 years
Barry Bonds: 4,432 days: 7/5/1989 to 8/23/2001, 12 years
Greg Luzinski: 4,427 days: 7/16/1972 to 8/29/1984, 12 years
Roy White: 4,413 days: 8/17/1967 to 9/16/1979, 12 years
Ted Williams: 4,403 days: 7/20/1941 to 8/09/1953, 12 years
Eddie Mathews: 4,380 days: 6/2/1955 to 5/30/1967, 12 years
We don't know if Bonds is heading for the home run record or not. But hitting a pinch homer on the way to breaking it is not unprecedented. Here's a look at the pinch-trot records of Babe Ruth, Roger Maris and Mark McGwire:
Ruth in 1927: none (1 in career)
Maris in 1961: none (3 in career)
McGwire in 1998: one (Sept. 15, against Pittsburgh), (7 in career)
Trivia answer
Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro.
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each week.
| |
|
