Discussion

How much should Darvish be paid?

By projecting his performance we can figure out how much he's really worth

Updated: December 19, 2011, 11:42 PM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory

After much fanfare, we are one step closer to seeing Yu Darvish in a major league uniform. The Texas Rangers have won the posting auction with a reported bid of $51.7 million, and they now have a exclusive negotiating rights for 30 days with the best pitcher remaining on the market.

The big question, and one teams are trying to answer, is just what to expect out of Darvish. With a minor league or amateur pitcher, teams can generally take a "wait and see" approach. The $15.1 million the Washington Nationals needed to secure the services of Stephen Strasburg is just a fraction of the posting fee paid by the Rangers just for the rights to negotiate with Darvish.

So with Texas beginning negotiations with Darvish, let's take a stab at figuring out what he should earn. Using the ZiPS projection system, I can project his statistics over the next few years (you're welcome, fantasy players); and with a working knowledge of what teams typically pay for wins on the open market, we can calculate just how much Darvish deserves to be paid. So let's get to it.

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