Evolving Cano elevating to Yanks' best hitter
John Kruk is an analyst for "Baseball Tonight."
Baseball Tonight Live
"Baseball Tonight" analysts, ESPN.com writers and SweetSpot Network bloggers chatted and gave their in-game opinions throughout the day's games -- all in Baseball Tonight Live.
Touch 'Em All
Who went deep? Keep track of all the home runs hit each day on "Baseball Tonight" and the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page. For more, check out the Home Run Tracker page.
|Ryan Braun, MIL||10||LAA||Top 3: 1-1, 2 Outs. Grand Slam.||Saunders|
|Ryan Ludwick, STL||11||SEA||Bot 1: 3-1, 1 Out. 2 on.||French|
|Matt Wieters, BAL||5||SF||Top 2: 3-2, 1 Out. None on.||Sanchez|
|Ichiro Suzuki, SEA||2||STL||Top 1: 1-0, 0 Outs. None on.||Wainwright|
|Adrian Gonzalez, SD||15||TOR||Bot 4: 1-1, 0 Outs. None on.||Marcum|
Tuesday's Best Matchups
Phillies at Yankees, 7:10 p.m. ET
A rematch of the last year's World Series but with a new name attached to the marquee. Roy Halladay wasn't around when these two teams met this past October, but he will be for this series opener when he faces Yankees headliner CC Sabathia. The Phils have scored one or fewer runs in three of Halladay's past five starts. After losing consecutive decisions, Sabathia has won two in a row.
Rays at Braves, 7:10 p.m. ET
This doesn't set up well for the Braves. Atlanta starter Kenshin Kawakami is 0-8 in 12 starts this season. The Rays' David Price, meanwhile, is 9-2. Those nine wins are the most in the American League; also tops is his 2.23 ERA. Want more? Price's numbers in June have been outstanding; he is 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA this month.
Rockies at Twins, 8:10 p.m. ET
Rockies games just don't seem to get decided with Aaron Cook on the mound. The righty has walked away with six no-decisions over his past seven starts; the sole exception was a win May 29 against the Dodgers. Since starting the season with consecutive wins, Carl Pavano has been unable to follow a victory with another winning decision.
BASEBALL TONIGHT ON THE AIR
|10 p.m. ET on ESPN|
Host: Karl Ravech|
Analysts: John Kruk, Chris Singleton, Buster Olney
|12 a.m. ET on ESPN2|
Host: Karl Ravech|
Analysts: Chris Singleton
Make the adjustment
WEB GEMS LEADERBOARD
MONDAY'S BEST AND WORST
BESTJohn Buck, C, Blue Jays
Buck had two hits against the Padres. Both were homers. Buck belted a two-run shot in the second and came back with a solo shot to right field in the eighth. Before the win against the Padres, Buck had hit just one homer since May 8. In Monday's win, he hit a pair and drove home three runs.
WORSTTrevor Bell, RHP, Angels
Angels starter Joe Saunders struggled, giving up six hits and six runs in 5 2/3 innings. He wasn't as bad, though, as one of the relievers that followed him; in this case, it was Bell. The righty gave up five hits and five runs in only 1 1/3 innings of work in a blowout loss against the Brewers.
Despite the generally accepted wisdom, a team's win-loss record is not always the best measurement for how well it has been performing during a season, especially early on.
Statisticians prefer to do whatever they can to increase the sample sizes of their measurements, and while each game yields just one win and loss, it involves roughly 75 plate appearances and hundreds of pitches. Therefore, a team's record is more prone to fluctuation than its overall hitting and pitching stats are. Evaluating teams based on the more numerous plate appearances provides a more sound measure of a team's performance to date. One such method of evaluation along those lines is BaseRuns, which is a formula used to predict how many runs scored and allowed a team should incur based on the number of hits, walks, home runs, stolen bases and total bases. Those predicted run totals can then be put into another well-tested equation, called Pythagorean Record, to produce how many wins and losses a team should have based on those more stable predictors. We can compare that predicted record with a team's actual record to find out which teams have been especially lucky or unlucky. Three teams stick out from these results as being especially lucky, Pittsburgh being one. It probably is surprising to hear Pittsburgh regarded as lucky, given its 23-40 record, but consider that the Pirates' run differential is minus-140 runs, by far the worst in baseball. The Pirates should hold MLB's worst overall record, but instead, they sit six games ahead of the Orioles. The Astros have similar benefits, having MLB's third worst run differential but a record about six games better than expected. Trumping all teams, however, the Los Angeles Angels sit as baseball's luckiest team by this measure.