- Tim Kurkjian, MLB reporter
- 0 Shares
This is the hardest series to call.
It is hard to figure the Dodgers, who were so bad early, then were unstoppable for the middle part of the season, and then went 9-15 to the finish line.
It is hard to figure the Braves, who won 96 games but have no ace, and can be pitched to so easily at times. Both teams have the potential to be really good, yet each has the potential to implode right before our eyes.
Here are five questions.
How good is the Dodgers' rotation?
It is the best in the league. Clayton Kershaw, who can pitch twice in the series if it goes five games, is the best pitcher in baseball.
His 1.83 ERA this year was the lowest by any ERA qualifier since Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74), and the lowest by an NL pitcher since Greg Maddux (1.63) in 1995. Only Sandy Koufax had an ERA as low among Dodger pitchers (1.74 in 1964 and 1.73 in 1966) in the live ball era (1920-on). Maddux, Kershaw and Koufax are the only pitchers in NL history to win three straight ERA titles.
Kershaw will be followed by Zack Greinke, who went 7-1 over his last 12 starts and had a 1.85 ERA in the second half of the season. Kershaw and Greinke represent the best 1-2 pitching combination in the game. You also can't do much better than Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.00 ERA) and Ricky Nolasco as the third and fourth starters.
Who is the Braves' ace?
They might not have one, but Game 1 starter Kris Medlen has pitched like an ace lately. In his last six starts, he is 5-0 and has allowed four earned runs -- no home runs -- during that stretch (43 innings).
"This is as well as I've seen him pitch since his great stretch last year," one scout said. "He has his confidence back."
What will the Dodgers do with their outfield?
Matt Kemp is done for the season with an ankle injury.
"We went 42-8 without Matt," said Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. "We're not just going to fold it up."
Andre Ethier has also not played since Sept. 22 because of an ankle injury. He is taking at-bats in simulated games in Arizona in hopes of being ready, but it's unlikely he will be able to play in the NLDS.
What will the Braves do with their outfield?
Upton is hitting .184; only teammate Dan Uggla (.179) has a lower batting average this year among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Upton hit .157 against left-handers, and the Braves will see Kershaw twice and Ryu once if the series goes five games.
Upton hit .108 with runners in scoring position. Gattis is a subpar defensive player, but he is a very dangerous hitter. And against the Dodgers' pitching, the Braves might need all the offense they can get.
How good is the Braves' bullpen?
It is the best in the game.
The Braves' 2.46 bullpen ERA was the best in the NL; next best was Pittsburgh at 2.89. And only the Tigers had fewer bullpen innings this year than the Braves, which means they haven't been overworked.
The pick: Dodgers in five.
2dInterview by Buster Olney