In the wake of Alex Rodriguez's new contract, I have (as they say) a question and a comment:
Question: What happens if two (or more) players have contracts guaranteeing that they'll be the highest-paid in the game?
Comment: From last spring through last week, I couldn't open my front door without somebody asking me, "Where's Alex going to end up?" Admittedly, I have less insight into such matters than do, say, Peter Gammons or Jayson Stark. That said, what I told inquisitors through all those months was, "I don't have any idea, and I don't think that anybody else does, either." Well, how many people were talking about the Rangers last summer?
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Power Surge
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Alex Rodriguez will bring a needed boost to the Rangers infield in the upcoming season. Texas shortstops ranked 12th in the American League in batting last season, while A-Rod more than doubled their home run and RBI production.
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Rodriguez
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Rangers SS
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BA
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.316
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.238
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Slug. Pct.
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.606
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.384
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HR
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41
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15
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RBI
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132
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62
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Runs
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134
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72
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Now, about the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez's brand-new team ... Have they purchased themselves a pennant?
We can see that the Rangers' new lineup looks mighty impressive. Three of the nine regulars posted 1000-plus OPS's last season, and that doesn't even include Rafael Palmeiro (955) and Andres Galarraga (895). In 2000, the Rangers finished ninth in the American League in run production, and looking at the new lineup, it seems fairly apparent that they'll improve on that in 2001. But how much will they improve? Rather than look at the performance statistics, which are indeed impressive, let's look at a few other numbers:
Games Age
Randy Velarde 122 38
Rusty Greer 105 32
Ivan Rodriguez 91 29
Alex Rodriguez 148 25
Rafael Palmeiro 158 36
Andres Galarraga 141 39
Ken Caminiti 59 37
Gabe Kapler 116 25
Ruben Mateo 52 23
There are two truisms about injuries. The first holds that players who have been injured in the past are likely to be injured in the future. The second holds that the older a player is, the more likely he is to be injured.
Assuming these two truisms are accurate, I have concerns about the Rangers' new-look lineup. Velarde, Greer, Ivan Rodriguez, Caminiti, Kapler and Mateo -- that's six of the nine projected regulars -- spent significant time on the disabled list last season. Of those six, Velarde and Caminiti are both in their late 30s, and don't figure to get either healthier or, perhaps more the point, better.
The other three are Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Andres Galarraga. Palmeiro and Galarraga are also in their late 30s. And Rodriguez, in his five full seasons as a major leaguer, has been on the DL four times.
What all this suggests to me is that the "projected Rangers lineup" will rarely take the field, because one or more of its members will likely be on the DL at any particular time.
The Rangers will almost certainly feature a solid hitting attack next season. But will they be able to simply slug their way to the postseason, as they did in 1998 and 1999?
No, I don't think that they can. If the Rangers are going to win 90-plus games, they'll need to finish in the middle of the pack in pitching, too.
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ALSO SEE
Stark: The owner who snagged A-Rod
Rangers go for broke: A-Rod deal worth $252M
A-Rod-Ometer: How fat is his wallet?
AthletesDirect: Alex Rodriguez answers fans' questions
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