"With high hope for the future, no prediction is ventured."
-- Abraham Lincoln
"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."
-- Albert Einstein
Lincoln and Einstein were a lot smarter than I am. A common question I get at this time of year is, "who will win the Rookie of the Year Award?" Baseball fans, after all, love to think about the future. In my more rational moments, I decline to answer such questions with a specific name (call this the Paul Wilson Rule), but today we'll look at the major candidates for ROY, and venture a guess as to who will take home the award.
American League
The AL is chock full of candidates this year. At the top of the list has to be Seattle outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, the Japanese star who will take his place in the Mariner outfield. He is hitting well this spring, at .333 with .521 slugging through Tuesday. Everyone expects him to be a .300 hitter; the question is, does he hit .310 or .360?
I have a primitive method for JLEs (Japanese League Equivalencies), which projects Suzuki to hit .321 this year. Other experts with more refined methods, like the guys at the Baseball Prospectus also see Suzuki hitting .320-something. We know he will provide excellent defense and steals some bases, so the main thing we wonder about is his power. I expect he'll hit a bunch of doubles and perhaps 10-15 homers. He won't run away with the Rookie of the Year award, but he's the top candidate right now.
Some people don't consider Suzuki to be a "real" rookie, considering that he is 27 years old and a veteran of the Japanese majors. Even if we leave him out of the equation, there are plenty of other American Leaguers who look to make runs at the award.
Oakland second baseman Jose Ortiz came into spring training as the projected starter, and he's played very well (.306 batting, .676 slugging), thus solidifying his hold on the job. I think he's a lock to hit at least .280 with moderate power, and he could do much better than that. Without Suzuki in the picture, Ortiz would be the top candidate.
Another second baseman to watch is Brent Abernathy in Tampa Bay. He's not spectacular, but is the sort of hard-nosed line-drive hitting scrapper that endears himself to scouts, coaches, and the press. He could also hit in the .280s, though with less power than Ortiz. Unless he is a huge surprise, he has to be regarded as a darkhorse.
Alfonso Soriano in New York has had a brilliant spring. There were rumors he was going to play left field, but now it looks like he is going to switch places with Chuck Knoblauch. Soriano is doing a better job of going to the opposite field, according to Yankees officials, and has been much smoother with his infield actions this spring. I'm not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon yet; he's been somewhat disappointing over the last year or so, and I want to see how consistent he turns out to be. Still, he's in the best media market in the Universe, and if he has a good year he'll garner a lot of support.
Minnesota second baseman Luis Rivas has been injured all spring, and while he is still expected to see the majority of action for the Twins this year, he has too much competition in the ROY contest to be a major player yet. Fellow twin Matt Kinney should be in the rotation, and is another possibility if he throws strikes consistently.
Royals outfielder Dee Brown has put his attitude problems aside. He's been impressive in camp and I think he'll have a good year, but unless he smashes 40 homers or something, he is likely to be overshadowed by Suzuki among the outfielders. Same goes with Toronto's Vernon Wells, who is mashing the ball but faces the problem of finding sufficient playing time.
Another candidate is Baltimore's Ryan Kohlmeier, who saved 13 down the stretch for the Orioles last year. He's been mediocre this spring, but if he holds the job he'll get some support. His chances look less promising than the hitters on the list however.
National League
The NL rookie field is less crowded than the AL this year.
Most observers paint Brewers starter Ben Sheets as the frontrunner for ROY. They've been saying that since his outstanding performance in the 2000 Olympics. His spring training 2.14 ERA ensures his spot in the rotation. He throws quite hard, is very intelligent, and impresses scouts with his tenacity. I'm quite certain he will have a very good career, assuming he stays healthy, of course.
I've written about this before, but I can't shake the instinct that Sheets will struggle this year. His K/BB mark in Triple-A was mediocre at 59/31 in 82 innings. K/BB is just about the best predictor of future performance for pitchers that we have. Even this spring, his K/BB is weak at 7/5 in 21 innings.
I'll predict here and now that Sheets will not win Rookie of the Year. If I'm wrong about that, I will own up to it at the end of the season.
So, who will win it? Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins has a lock on a job. I like him, but he isn't the spectacular sort of player who wins press accolades. He looks like someone who could get off to a slow start, then fight his way back as the season progresses to finish with decent numbers. Look for a .270ish average with some doubles and steals and good glovework. He's not A-Rod, but Rollins isn't Desi Relaford either.
If you want a sleeper candidate, look at Mets outfielder Tsuyoshi Shinjo, hitting .387 this spring. He doesn't have Suzuki's all-around ability, but he does have talent, including above-average power and a solid glove. It's possible we could have two Japanese players earn ROY honors, but Shinjo will have to hold off other Mets outfielders to earn sufficient playing time for that to be possible.
In San Francisco, it looks like Pedro Feliz (.353 batting, .588 slugging) is going to succeed in his quest to wrest the third-base job from Russ Davis (.154 batting, .356 slugging). Feliz slammed 33 homers last year for Triple-A Fresno, earning PCL All-Star honors, but his plate discipline is questionable. Feliz is essentially a Dominican version of Russ Davis. He'll hit 25 homers if he gets the at-bats, but don't count on a good on-base percentage or any measure of consistency.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if the eventual 2001 NL ROY turns out to be someone who begins the year in the minors. The Cubs themselves have three candidates: Corey Patterson, Hee Seop Choi, and Ben Christensen could all emerge in the majors early in the year under the right circumstances. Heck, Courtney Duncan could wind up as the closer in an alternate universe somewhere. The Astros have several pitchers on the cusp of being ready, and there are probably 10 other guys I don't have room to mention.
Since I've precluded picking Sheets as my choice (guess) for the NL award, I'll put down Feliz for now. Just remember that winning Rookie of the Year does not guarantee a long and productive career in the majors. Ask Joe Charboneau and Bob Hamelin.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. | |
ALSO SEE
Down on the Farm archive
 |