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Thursday, June 6
Updated: June 7, 4:29 PM ET
 
Schilling vs. Glavine

By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

Curt Schilling is on pace for 30 wins, 360 strikeouts and just 22 walks. As Jayson Stark reported, Schilling has a chance to become just the fifth pitcher to qualify for the ERA title and finish with more wins than walks.

As great as Schilling has been, however, he may not even be the best pitcher in the National League so far. Tom Glavine has 10 wins -- just one fewer than Schilling -- and an ERA more than one run better. A comparison:

      GS CG   IP  H  R ER HR BB  SO  AVG OPS QS RS   W-L  ERA
Curt  13  1 96.0 74 30 30  9  8 131 .204 559 10 8.1 11-1 2.81
Tom   14  2 98.2 78 23 18  5 24  62 .217 571 12 5.0 10-2 1.64

In the above chart, AVG is opponents' batting average, OPS is opponents' on-base + slugging, QS is quality starts and RS is average run support per game.

Who would win the Cy Young Award right now? Yes, it's hard to get past Schilling's dominant strikeout-to-walk ratio, the likes of which we've never seen. On the other hand, it should be just as difficult to get past Glavine's 1.64 ERA ... especially when knowing Schilling's 2.81 ERA ranks just eighth in the NL. A few other thoughts:

  • Glavine has given up two runs or less in 12 of 14 starts (he allowed five and four in the other two). Schilling has given up two runs or less in six of his 13 starts (he's given up six runs once and four runs twice).

  • It can be argued that since Schilling has relied so much on the strikeout, he hasn't had to rely on his defense as much as Glavine. Glavine has allowed five unearned runs (making his run per game average just over 2.00) and also has a below-average defense behind him, with the exception of the outstanding Andruw Jones in center field (corner outfielders Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield have poor range, corner infielders Vinny Castilla and Julio Franco are old and middle infielders Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles are hardly Gold Glove candidates). Glavine has been outstanding despite his defense, not because of it.

  • What about quality of opposition? Schilling has made six starts against the bottom half of offensive teams in the NL (including two against league-worst Pittsburgh). Glavine has made eight starts against the bottom half of offensive teams (including three against the 13th-ranked Mets). Not a big difference there.

  • Glavine has two games (one loss, one no-decision) that he could have won. He allowed four runs in a 6-5 no-decision against the Dodgers and five runs in a 6-5 loss to the Padres. Schilling's one loss was also a game he could have won: he allowed six runs in an 8-4 loss to the Cardinals.

  • It has been suggested that Schilling "pitches" to the score and allows runs with a big lead. Let's look at the games in which he allowed more than two runs.

    -- On April 12, Arizona scored five in the top of the second and it was 7-1 when Schilling allowed a two-run homer to Larry Walker in the sixth. In this case, with a big lead, we could say he was "pitching to the scoreboard."

    -- We mentioned the loss to St. Louis.

    -- In a 5-4 win over Florida on April 28, Schilling trailed 3-2 before Arizona bailed him out with three runs in the sixth. He immediately gave one back. Rack up this "W" to nice run support.

    -- In a 6-3 win over Montreal on May, the D-Backs scored four in the first. Schilling gave up solo homers to Vladimir Guerrero and Michael Barrett and left after seven with a 4-3 lead. Pitching to the scoreboard? Perhaps, but he still left the game with just a one-run lead.

    -- On May 8, Arizona beat Pittsburgh 4-3. However, the Pirates scored all three runs in the top of the first on a three-run homer by Craig Wilson.

    -- On May 18, the D-Backs beat the Phillies 5-4. However, Schilling once again fell behind, 4-1. His teammates had to come from behind.

    -- Schilling allowed three runs in a 7-3 win over the Giants on May 29. The three runs came in the sixth, with Arizona up 5-0 at the time (no runs scored on home runs).

    In conclusion, it's very evident that Schilling does not pitch to the scoreboard. In fact, his best games this year have come in blowouts: a 9-0 win over San Diego, an 11-0 win over Pittsburgh, a 14-3 win over Los Angeles (one run allowed) and a 10-4 win over Houston (one run). Only his 2-0, one-hit, 17-strikeout performance against Milwaukee on April 7 came in a tight game.

    Glavine, meanwhile, has won games 4-2, 3-1, 4-2, 2-0 and 3-2. Glavine is on pace to make 38 starts, pitch 266 innings and allow 63 runs (49 earned). Schilling is on pace to make 36 starts, pitch 264 innings and allow 82 runs (82 earned).

    In the end, the evidence points to Tom Glavine -- and not Curt Schilling -- as the best pitcher in the National League ... thus far.

    The Lowe-down
    Of course, the best pitcher in baseball may be Derek Lowe. Let's add him to the chart:

          GS CG   IP  H  R ER HR BB  SO  AVG OPS QS RS   W-L  ERA
    Curt  13  1 96.0 74 30 30  9  8 131 .204 559 10 8.1 11-1 2.81
    Tom   14  2 98.2 78 23 18  5 24  62 .217 571 12 5.0 10-2 1.64
    Derek 12  1 84.1 47 17 17  0 23  50 .167 448 11 6.8  9-2 1.81
    

    Lowe has had just one bad start: he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings, but got the win in an 8-7 victory over Kansas City on April 21. His two losses came in a 6-2 loss to the Royals (2 runs in seven innings) and a 3-2 loss to the Yankees (3 runs in six innings).

    Remarkably, Lowe has had starts of no hits, one hit, and three times of two hits. His OPS allowed is a staggeringly low 448 and he's yet to allow a home run.

    And keep in mind that the AL league ERA is 4.50, compared to 4.01 in the NL. The strike against Lowe is that the Red Sox have been a little more careful with him and he hasn't made as many starts or pitched as many innings as Glavine and Schilling.

    David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.






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