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MLB Preview 2003

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Monday, March 24
 
Season preview: Florida Marlins

ESPN.com


Projected batting order
Luis Castillo, 2B
Juan Pierre, CF
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Derrek Lee, 1B
Mike Lowell, 3B
Juan Encarnacion, RF
Todd Hollandsworth, LF
Alex Gonzalez, SS
Rotation
A.J. Burnett, RHP
Josh Beckett, RHP
Brad Penny, RHP
Mark Redman, LHP
Carl Pavano, RHP
Bench
Mike Redmond, C
Andy Fox, INF
Mike Mordecai, INF
Abraham Nunez, OF
Brian Banks, INF
Bullpen
Tim Spooneybarger, RHP (CL)
Braden Looper, RHP
Vladimir Nunez, RHP
Michael Tejera, LHP
Armando Almanza, LHP
Toby Borland, RHP

Complete Marlins roster

 ESPN's Take

Q: With the loss of Kevin Millar/Cliff Floyd/Preston Wilson and the addition of the weak-hitting Juan Pierre, can the offense be good enough to help out the young arms?
No. The outfield is not very strong offensively, although if Luis Castillo keeps getting on base and Juan Pierre turns around his career, Pudge Rodriguez and Derrek Lee will drive in runs. The starters have good arms, but if their best, A.J. Burnett, is out for a while, it will be tough, and if they don't play well early, they will move Castillo and Mike Lowell. The reason they tried to trade for Shea Hillenbrand this spring was to move Lowell's contract, no matter what they say. Hey, they told Ryan Dempster he hadn't been traded at the All-Star break an hour after it was posted on ESPN.com, hours after the trade had been consummated and an hour after the clubhouse attendant started working on an Encarnacion uniform.
-- Peter Gammons





Yes, this is the year Derrek Lee takes off. While fantasy owners know his name due to some power and those surprising 19 steals, the Marlins are making him the cleanup hitter. Expect 35 homers from him. So do we. Less steals, more pop. Take it.

As a Tiger, Mark Redman was pretty solid, putting up a nice ERA for a bad team. Now he's generally forgotten, but figures to win a few more and keep his peripheral numbers nice as a Marlin. He's had a poor spring, but he's not a hard-thrower anyway. He's a sleeper.
-- Eric Karabell




Jason Stokes, 1B
Though fellow first baseman Adrian Gonzalez might be closer to the big leagues, Stokes is actually considered the better prospect because of his power. He hit 27 homers in 349 at-bats in Class A despite a nagging wrist injury. He's at least two full seasons away from the big leagues.

 Manager: Jeff Torborg
 Home: Pro Player Stadium (42,531)
 '02 record: 79-83
 Team page | Schedule | Offseason moves

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez
Found few takers on the free-agent market and took a one-year, $10 million deal from the Marlins. His production (homers and RBI) has dipped in each of his last four years, a troubling sign, though he may be motivated to have a great season before re-entering the free-agent market. Rodriguez doesn't have the best reputation when it comes to handling a staff and the Marlins' young arms may prove a challenge. As always, however, he will totally shut down opponents on the basepaths.

First Base: Derrek Lee
Set career highs in numerous offensive categories last year (RBI, runs, walks), but his overall numbers weren't staggering (.270-27-86), particularly for a first baseman. He showed little power at home (nine homers in 279 at-bats). Though he committed 12 errors, he played a superb first base and some thought he deserved a Gold Glove.

Second Base: Luis Castillo
Attracted national attention with his 35-game hitting streak, then tailed off badly in the second half, hitting just .260 after the break. His arm is strong enough play shortstop and turns the double play well at second, though his range is somewhat limited. His 48 steals led the National League, though he also led the league in being caught (15 times).

Third Base: Mike Lowell
The subject of endless trade rumors over the winter, he will start the year as the Marlins' third baseman; how long he remains is a matter of debate. Lowell led the club in RBI with 92, despite being slowed by a hip injury in August. Exceptional at third, he's become a smarter situational hitter and could see his run production output improved with two table-setters like Castillo and Juan Pierre.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez
His 2002 season was cut short with a severe shoulder separation, limiting him to just 42 games. This season, he'll have to play well or risk losing his position to Andy Fox. Though Gonzalez's range at short ranks with anyone in the league, he can be erratic and he doesn't use his speed well on the basepaths.

Left Field: Todd Hollandsworth
The key for him -- as it always has been -- will be maintaining his health: he's been on the DL nine times in the last eight seasons. Hollandsworth has shown pop over his career, but some believe those numbers have been inflated by friendly ballparks. Pro Player Stadium isn't likely to be as hospitable.

Center Field: Juan Pierre
Has virtually no power (26 extra-base hits last year) and doesn't get on base enough for someone with his speed. But when he does get on, he's always a threat to steal, compiling 47 stolen bases last year with Colorado. An excellent bunter, he's learned to put the ball in play and on the ground. While his speed enables him to cover a lot of ground in center, his throwing arm is way below average.

Right Field: Juan Encarnacion
Once thought to have superstar potential, he's now with his third organization in the last year. He owns an above-average arm and plays a good right field. He's yet to fully utilize his speed and power, though he did achieve a 20-20 season while splitting time between Cincinnati and Florida last season.

No. 1 Starter: A.J. Burnett
Helped by a change in his delivery, Burnett won 12 games for the Marlins and posted a very respectable 3.30 ERA while establishing himself as the staff workhorse and ace. He led the NL in shutouts and was second in complete games. He needs only to establish more consistency to be thought of as one of the best young pitchers in the game.

No. 2 Starter: Josh Beckett
His troublesome shoulder finally healed, but he developed blisters on his right middle finger which proved a nuisance for much of last season. He possesses a plus fastball which has been clocked in the upper 90s and a terrific overhand curve, but could use another pitch in his repertoire. Still just 22, this could be a breakout season for him.

No. 3 Starter: Brad Penny
Was a big disappointment last year, winning just eight games and compiling a 4.66 ERA over 24 starts. Penny has a heavy sinker, but he left enough pitches up in the strike zone to lead the staff in homers allowed. The hope is that he will have learned from his poor season and continue to make improvements.

No. 4 Starter: Mark Redman
A finesse lefty, Redman relies a great deal on his changeup, his best pitch. Because he relies so much on location, he needs to show better command of the strike zone. Redman must also prove that he can stay healthy and be more consistent, as he tends to be streaky.

Bullpen: Braden Looper, Vladimir Nunez, Michael Tejera, Armando Almanza, Toby Borland
Looper failed early on as the closer last year, but did post a good overall ERA (3.14) as he was used primarily in a set-up role. Has a very high ceiling. Nunez had 20 saves last year while also posting a very good ERA (3.41).

Closer: Tim Spooneybarger
Part of the complicated three-team Mike Hampton deal, Spooneybarger will get a chance to close with the Marlins. He has great movement on his pitches, which include a good power curve and a strong sinker. The quality of his stuff isn't in doubt; how well he adapts to the responsibility of closing at 23 is.


-- Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

Record: 79-83 | Finish: 4th in NL East | Results | Statistics: Batting | Pitching
Offense (NL rank) Defense (NL rank)
699 runs (12th)
Home:369 (7th)
Road: 330 (11th)
763 runs allowed (12th)
Home: 339 (8th)
Road: 424 (14th)
2002 Stats Leaders  
Average: Kevin Millar, .306
Runs: Derrek Lee, 95
On-base pct: Lee, .378
Stolen bases: Luis Castillo, 48
Wins: A.J. Burnett, 12
Saves: Vladimir Nunez, 20
Home runs: Lee, 27
RBI: Mike Lowell, 92
Slugging pct.: Millar, .509
OPS: Millar, .875
ERA: Burnett, 3.30
Strikeouts: Burnett, 203





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