Career Assessments
Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player's age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.
Examples (through July 1, 2009)
Alex Rodriguez - 763 Home Runs
Ichiro Suzuki - 3,000 Hits
CC Sabathia - 300 Wins
INSIDE MLB
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Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman and his 100 mph heater are among this offseason's many hot topics.
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Alex Rodriguez had an interesting season, but it's one that ended with him lifting a career-long burden as a first-time champion.
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The Phillies didn't get enough from their offense, particularly Ryan Howard, or their bullpen to repeat as champions.
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Joe Girardi needs to rethink his pitching plan after watching A.J. Burnett's short start on short rest in Game 5.
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Johnny Damon's two steals on one pitch drove the Yankees in Game 4 and will long be remembered.
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Andy Pettitte's been under the bright lights before. He showed yet again that he knows how to handle himself in October.
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Cole Hamels couldn't get out of the fifth inning and Ryan Howard's strikeout total rose some more. The Phillies are in trouble. But how much?
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Ruth. Rivera. Gehrig. Gibson. Jackson. After a month of voting. they're the charter members of our Hall of Fall, the five greatest players in postseason history.






