UFC on FX 5    October 5, 2012
Jay Hierron
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

BREAKDOWN

Jay Hieron might win this by circling and striking from the outside, but that's risky. It can be difficult winning scorecards like that and at some point, Jake Ellenberger will catch him. I'd actually like to see Hieron be the aggressor, but that's risky, too. Ellenberger is just nasty to deal with on the feet. Terrific footwork and heavy, heavy hands. He's fearless moving forward and can just as easily knock out guys moving backward (not easy to do). Hieron is technical, but to overcome Ellenberger's power, he might want to make this ugly. Slow Ellenberger however he can, keep things contained along the fence and use pressure to wear on that suspect gas tank. Boos may actually be a good thing for Hieron in this fight.