UFC on FOX 5    December 8, 2012
BJ Penn, Jon Fitch
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

BREAKDOWN

B.J. Penn picked a heck of an opponent for a comeback fight. As good as Penn's boxing is, I don't favor him on the feet against Rory MacDonald. His style is to stand mostly flat-footed, parry an opponent's punches with the right hand and counter with the left. His defense hasn't completely deteriorated, but his head movement and hand speed aren't what they used to be and MacDonald's reach advantage will be tough to overcome. Penn is incredibly slick on the ground and if he pulls this one out, I'm guessing it's because he's able to take MacDonald's back in a scramble and sneak in a choke. But MacDonald is big, athletic. Even if Penn is motivated, as I believe he is, it's a mismatch.