Chael Sonnen has won two fights in three years, one of them controversially so. He's fighting up a weight class. And he's a betting favorite? That tells you how far Mauricio Rua has fallen. For Rua to win, he needs to start strong. Tired and behind on the scorecards isn't where he wants to be. Stylistically, I like "Shogun." Sonnen will need to come inside and when he does, he's vulnerable to Rua's strong clinch. Sonnen takes damage in fights and Rua possesses legitimate knockout power. Sonnen wants the fight on the ground, but Rua has a fairly active guard. He's rarely been straight outwrestled in his career. The concern is that Rua is visibly slowing down and Sonnen brings a style that will test his cardio over five rounds.
-- Brett Okamoto