Projecting Lin's future value

Through 11 games, he's played at an All-Star level. Here's a look at what comes next

Originally Published: February 23, 2012
By Austin Link | TeamRankings.com

How much can 11 games tell us about a player? The answer can certainly help inform the discussion of what the future holds for Jeremy Lin. Even the most optimistic fans probably realize that Lin is playing a little over his head right now. His likely return to normalcy is mathematically called "regression to the mean," and it's the same reason why 7-0 teams don't all go on to finish 82-0.

It's well noted by now that Lin has played incredibly well. He's played well individually, and he's also helped a struggling New York Knicks team go 9-2 over their past 11 games.

A few observers have pointed out, however, that maintaining this level of play is improbable. With no accurate historical comparisons, it's hard to put a number on his true skill. The key question for Knicks fans, and the one we're going to address here, is this: What is Lin's long-term talent level?