TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown 2013

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Has it been the Year of the Stat Geek?

In November in the presidential election, baseball sabermetrician-turned-political data analyst Nate Silver nailed the winner in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown veteran John Hollinger was tapped to join the front office of the Memphis Grizzlies. In March, 29 NBA teams sent representatives to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and more organizations than ever are devoting serious resources to analytics. Advanced stats are routinely referenced on many NBA broadcasts and by mainstream outlets. Algorithms drive sales strategies, page views and traffic lights.

It's a stat geek's world and we're just living in it.

The seventh TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown has arrived. Along with newcomer Tom Haberstroh, we have six returning contestants this spring, including Matthew Stahlhut, the reigning champion. Stahlhut jumped out early last year and maintained his lead through each round. Benjamin Morris looks to regain his form from his first Smackdown in 2011, when he finished first.

Also returning is Jeff Ma, who holds the 2010 title. Ma is a retired member of the MIT Blackjack Team that beat Vegas, a former consultant to pro sports teams, author of "The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business" and current CEO of tenXer. The 2009 Smackdown champ was Dave Berri of Wages of Wins, which will be represented for the second straight year by Arturo Galletti, who uses many of Berri's methods.

For the past three years, Stephen Ilardi has been consulting the Phoenix Suns, and this is his sixth consecutive Smackdown appearance. That makes him the second-longest tenured TrueHoop Smackdown participant to Henry Abbott's mom, the only person on earth who has competed in all seven TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdowns.

Our eighth entrant is "The Crowd," which debuted in 2012. The Crowd is the collective opinion of more than 100 ESPN.com staffers and members of the TrueHoop Network.

The rules haven't changed. Participants will draw on a combination of their expertise, guesswork and muse to predict the outcome of every playoff series. Predictions are submitted before each round. A correct pick earns five points, with an extra two points for correctly calling the number of games.

Series Predictions (click on the links below to see picks for each matchup)

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(8) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. (1) MIAMI HEAT

Galletti Heat in 4	Haberstroh Heat in 4	Ilardi Heat in 4	Ma Heat in 4
Morris Heat in 5	Stahlhut Heat in 4	Henry's Mom Heat in 4	The Crowd Heat in 4

Smackdown Breakdown: Bucks-Heat

The entire Smackdown field has Miami in a sweep except Morris, who is sticking by his "everyone in five" strategy.

"Miami should win this tuneup series in a walk, as Milwaukee ranked only 21st in the NBA in adjusted net efficiency," Ilardi says. "Barring a major injury to LeBron James -- and we can expect to see him take some hard fouls from Milwaukee's bigs -- the only suspense may come from tracking whether or not the Heat's bench players log more minutes than their starters."

Haberstroh was having trouble with our ballot. "Where's the 'Miami in 3' button?" he asks.

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(7) BOSTON CELTICS VS. (2) NEW YORK KNICKS

Galletti Knicks in 5	Haberstroh Knicks in 7	Ilardi Knicks in 6	Ma Celtics in 6
Morris Knicks in 5	Stahlhut Knicks in 5	Henry's Mom Knicks in 6	The Crowd Knicks in 6

Smackdown Breakdown: Celtics-Knicks

Ma was the only member of the panel to predict the Celtics in an upset. "Zombies never die, or at least they wake up when the playoffs start," he says.

Stahlhut concedes that the Celtics play their best ball in the postseason, but he doesn't believe they have enough this year. "Boston tends to outperform their in-season stats in the playoffs, which speaks to their scheming, preparation and management of player minutes," he says. "The Knicks struggle with transition defense, something that the aging Celtics will not be able to exploit. I think the Celtics will have a tough time overcoming both age and injuries to challenge the Knicks."

"When it comes to Clam Chowders, I go with New England over Manhattan every time, but I have to go with the Knicks here," Haberstroh says. "I love the way they play with Carmelo Anthony at the 4, and I'm not optimistic that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce can bring it one last time. Actually, if Amar'e Stoudemire was healthy, I might go with the Celtics here."

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(6) ATLANTA HAWKS VS. (3) INDIANA PACERS

Galletti Pacers in 5	Haberstroh Pacers in 6	Ilardi Pacers in 5	Ma Pacers in 7
Morris Pacers in 5	Stahlhut Pacers in 5	Henry's Mom Pacers in 6	The Crowd Pacers in 6

Smackdown Breakdown: Hawks-Pacers

There were no upset picks in Atlanta's favor. "There is a big drop between the top three Eastern Conference teams and the rest of the pack," Stahlhut says. "Atlanta is the perfect definition of an average basketball team that has benefited from a weak Eastern Conference. The Hawks' offense should struggle against Indiana's league-leading defense."

Ilardi says: "When healthy, the Hawks are still a tough out, but they're now hobbling into the postseason, with Zaza Pachulia, Al Horford and Josh Smith all having battled recent injuries."

Ma feels it will be a tight seven-game series. "This will be a close series where Indy returns to its defensive ways," he says. "It will resemble the NCAA tournament at times."

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(5) CHICAGO BULLS VS. (4) BROOKLYN NETS

Galletti Bulls in 6	Haberstroh Nets in 6	Ilardi Bulls in 6	Ma Bulls in 6
Morris Nets in 5	Stahlhut Nets in 7	Henry's Mom Nets in 6	The Crowd Bulls in 7

Smackdown Breakdown: Bulls-Nets

As is the case with the 4-5 matchup in the West, there's little consensus over the outcome of the Brooklyn-Chicago series. "This grades as the closest match on the board for me," says Morris. "From my general lack of faith in this Nets squad, I'm tempted to pick the Bulls, but I can't find any objective measure to back that up. Nets have a better record, point differential, fewer injuries and are comfortable playing at Chicago's slow pace. Chicago leads the head-to-head 3-1 but only by 10 points over four games [not enough to be predictively significant]. So even if we charitably assumed the teams were about even, the Nets' home-court advantage would still put them over the top."

Ilardi is going out on a limb and taking the Bulls. "The conservative play is to take Brooklyn in six, but I still like Chicago's chances, with or without Rose," he says.

Finally, Henry's mom is picking the Nets in six but writes that, "I had to look up who the hell BKN were!"

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(8) HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. (1) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Galletti Thunder in 5	Haberstroh Thunder in 5	Ilardi Thunder in 5	Ma Thunder in 7
Morris Thunder in 5	Stahlhut Thunder in 5	Henry's Mom Thunder in 6	The Crowd Thunder in 5

Smackdown Breakdown: Rockets-Thunder

All eight participants pick the Thunder to move on, but only Ma has the series going seven games. He cites the Rockets' run-and-gun offense as why. "The high variance style of Houston is great for upset potential." Ma says. "Too bad this isn't the NCAA tourney with one-and-done."

Ilardi agrees that Houston poses a threat but doesn't think the series will go longer than five games. "Houston is a dangerous team for a No. 8 seed -- with an adjusted net efficiency we'd normally associate with a 50-win team -- but they will simply be outmatched by OKC, despite what may prove to be an epic scoring outburst by Harden," he says.

Tom Haberstroh is bullish on the Thunder. "History tells us that a team with OKC's point differential is almost guaranteed to win the title," he says. "James Harden may get them one day, but it's not this year -- not until Chris Bosh goes to Houston in 2014-15 [bonus prediction!]."

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(7) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. (2) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Galletti Spurs in 5	Haberstroh Spurs in 6	Ilardi Spurs in 5	Ma Spurs in 5
Morris Spurs in 5	Stahlhut Spurs in 5	Henry's Mom Spurs in 5	The Crowd Spurs in 5

Smackdown Breakdown: Lakers-Spurs

Stahlhut isn't concerned that the Spurs have dropped seven of their last 10 games. "San Antonio has struggled lately because of injuries to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili and Pop tactfully resting Tim Duncan," he says. "Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, San Antonio was an elite team and a top-five, for most of the year. Their most-used lineup doesn't even have Ginobili in it and is a massive plus-23 efficiency differential."

Ilardi says: "The playoffs are not an ideal time to field test a seldom-used starting lineup, as the Lakers will be forced to do in this series with their new core of Steve Nash [banged up]-Pau Gasol-Dwight Howard."

Morris says that he wouldn't be "shocked" by a Lakers upset of the Spurs, but he wouldn't pick them unless you gave him "favorable odds."

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(6) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. (3) DENVER NUGGETS

Galletti Nuggets in 7	Haberstroh Nuggets in 5	Ilardi Nuggets in 5	Ma Nuggets in 5
Morris Nuggets in 5	Stahlhut Nuggets in 5	Henry's Mom Nuggets in 6	The Crowd Nuggets in 6

Smackdown Breakdown: Warriors-Nuggets

Even with the Nuggets banged up and Warriors guard Stephen Curry shooting the lights out, not one Smackdown contestant has this series going more than six games for Denver.

"The loss of [Danilo] Gallinari will eventually hurt the Nuggets, but not in this series," Shahlhut says. "Despite Denver's struggles to defend the 3-point line, their superiority on the offensive boards [assuming Kenneth Faried can go] and creating turnovers on defense should make this a quick series."

Ilardi might have been tempted to predict a sweep for the Nuggets but backed off. "Denver is the third-best team in the league [in terms of adjusted net efficiency], but the odds are always stacked against a sweep," he says.

FIRST ROUND
MIL-MIA | BOS-NY | ATL-IND | CHI-BKN | HOU-OKC | LAL-SA | GS-DEN | MEM-LAC

(5) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS. (4) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Galletti Clippers in 5	Haberstroh Grizzlies in 7	Ilardi Clippers in 7	Ma Grizzlies in 6
Morris Clippers in 5	Stahlhut Clippers in 7	Henry's Mom Grizzlies in 6	The Crowd Clippers in 7

Smackdown Breakdown: Grizzlies-Clippers

Of the eight first-round series, the Smackdown was most divided on the Clippers-Grizzlies matchup. Haberstroh has the series going seven, with the Grizzlies winning the decisive game in Los Angeles. "You thought the Lakers' defense was bad this season?" Haberstroh says. "The Clippers have given up more points per possession since the All-Star break."

Stahlhut believes the margin between Los Angeles and Memphis is razor thin and that home court will be decisive. "Former stat geek competitor John Hollinger complained about winning 56 games and not getting home-court advantage," Stahlhut says. "I suspect he understands how important home court is in this series. On a neutral court, my numbers have the Clippers as slightly better than a coin flip at 55 percent. With home court, the Clippers become a favorite at 62 percent. If Memphis had home court, they would be the favorite at 56 percent to win the series."

Morris has the Clippers winning in five game, but he has every series going five games. What gives? "In my analysis & if you pick the home team in a series in a contest where you only get credit for the series length when your team also wins, it is generally also correct to pick five games [at least in the 2-2-1-1-1 format]," he says. "While the details are a bit complicated, the basic logic is that, in conditions of substantial uncertainty, a lot of the time your series won't actually be as 'even' as it appears."

Bios

Arturo Galletti is an electrical engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt in the lovely isle of Puerto Rico, where he applies his talents to good, honest work (most of the time) by keeping his production lines running day and night (and weekends), and works on sport analysis in his free time.

Tom Haberstroh is an ESPN Insider who once came within 100 M&M's of the actual number of M&M's inside the big jar at St. Luke's Easter Sunday Mass in 1993. He has fallen in love with statistics ever since, especially when it comes to basketball and baseball.

Steve Ilardi is a clinical researcher, professor of psychology and author of "The Depression Cure." For the past three seasons, he has served as an analytic consultant to the Phoenix Suns.

Jeff Ma is a former blackjack expert, movie star and sports savant and currently the CEO of tenXer, a company trying to reinvent the way people work using metrics and magic.

Benjamin Morris publishes original research and criticism on his blog Skeptical Sports Analysis. Since graduating from Yale University in 2003, he has spent most of his time on independent research, writing and gambling.

Matthew Stahlhut, who graduated from the St. Louis University School of Law in 2007, has been an attorney and a statistical analyst for a group of sports gamblers.

Henry's Abbott's mom hasn't watched all that much NBA since "JeRomeo" Kersey retired.

The Crowd is a collection of more than 100 ESPN.com and TrueHoop Network writers.

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Kevin Arnovitz

ESPN.com

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• NBA writer for ESPN.com since 2008
• Editor of the TrueHoop Network
• Former contributor and editor at NPR