Originally Published: March 17, 2011

Suspect schedule strengths

By Eric Sorenson
Special to ESPN.com

This is always one of my most favorite and least favorite weeks of the season. We're on the verge of seeing conference play kick off in earnest around the country, most notably in the SEC and the Big 12, which begin their annual show-no-mercy battles. But it's also a time to look back at the past few weeks and realize that, sadly, college baseball is inching closer and closer to college football in a noticeable lack of high-quality nonconference matchups.

This scares me, of course.

[+] Enlarge
John Rivera/Icon SMIBen Clowe and Stanford have played the toughest schedule in the country.

Either way, it's always interesting to see who has played the toughest schedules up to this point and who has skated by without challenging themselves in pre-conference play. Using Boyd Nation's ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings) and the strength of schedule component, here are the 10 toughest schedules in the country so far:

1. Stanford (6-5)
2. Boston College (6-8)
3. Cal State Fullerton (8-7)
4. Sacred Heart (6-6)
5. Clemson (7-6)
6. Maine (5-12)
7. Georgia (8-8)
8. Seton Hall (5-8)
9. Rice (10-8)
10. Hofstra (1-11)

Here are the toughest schedules played by teams in the top 25:
1. Stanford (6-5)
3. Cal State Fullerton (8-7)
5. Clemson (7-6)
9. Rice (10-8)
35. Florida (15-2)
41. California (10-4)

And here are the teams in the top 25 that have played the easiest schedules:
264. UC Irvine (12-1) 254. Arkansas (14-2) 220. College of Charleston 201. Arizona (13-4) 212. Oklahoma (16-2)

A couple of extra points about this. First, there have been only five nonconference weekend series between top-25 teams so far. We have to thank the gutsy Stanford Cardinal for being brave enough to go on the road, allowing three of them to happen. The others were the Clemson-South Carolina soap opera and last weekend's Fullerton-LSU series in Baton Rouge. And for what it's worth, none of the top 10 teams in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll had a strength of schedule of 30th or better. Only Florida (35th) and Texas (46th) were in the 50 toughest schedules.

Rendon handles the pressure

By Walter Villa
Special to ESPN.com

Anthony Rendon grew up in Houston and was in the eighth grade in 2003 when Rice won its lone College World Series title.

Just don't ask Rendon whether he remembers watching Rice on television.

[+] Enlarge
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireAnthony Rendon is responding to the pressure of being the likely No. 1 pick in the MLB draft.

"I was never inside as a kid," Rendon said. "I was always playing baseball."

Perhaps that helps explains why Rendon, now Rice's star third baseman, is the consensus No. 1 prospect for the 2011 MLB draft. The righty-hitting Rendon is only a junior, but it's virtually certain this is his last year in college.

And considering that MLB's past two No. 1 picks -- Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010 -- signed contracts totaling $25 million, Rendon was asked whether he preferred a Jaguar or a Mercedes for his first post-draft purchase.

"I'm a BMW guy," Rendon said with a laugh. "Mercedes is kind of girly."

Turning serious, Rendon said he is not afraid of the pressure that comes with being a No. 1 pick.

"I can't say there won't be pressure," he said, "because there will be. But I'm just going to play good baseball and have fun."

Rendon certainly has had fun the past two years. He won national freshman of the year honors in 2009, hitting .388 with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. Last year, he took home the Dick Howser Trophy as the national player of the year after hitting .394 with 26 homers and 85 RBIs.

Because the new, NCAA-mandated bats have taken much of the sting out of aluminum, Rendon might not put up such huge numbers this season. So far, he is leading 10-8 Rice in batting average (.358), homers (three) and on-base percentage (.500).

Teams also are reluctant to pitch to Rendon.

Such was the case in last week's 10-2 win over FIU. Rendon drew a pair of walks and finally got a pitch to hit when the bases were loaded. He promptly lined a shot to right field that cleared the bases. (Rice ruled it a triple; FIU called it an error.)

"What's impressive is that he can hit breaking balls as good as fastballs," FIU coach Turtle Thomas said. "He doesn't have a clear-cut weakness, which is different from nearly every other college player.

"Secondly, he has great range at the plate. He can handle the ball on the outside corner or a pitch off the inside, and that's hard to do with these new bats that have half the sweet spots as the old ones."

FIU pitching coach Sean Allen compared Rendon to MLB star Albert Pujols -- a player you pitch around, if possible.

"Most hitters need a couple of at-bats to make adjustments, but Rendon adjusts right away," Allen said. "I told my pitchers: 'If you throw him a breaking ball, make sure it's out of the strike zone. If he gets something in the middle of the plate, he's going to kill it.'"

About the only question with Rendon is whether he can stay healthy. He has had two surgeries on his right ankle -- once after he stepped in a "pothole" chasing a foul pop and the second after he was hurt running the bases.

Earlier this season, he strained his throwing shoulder … while stretching.

"I would say the same thing as them if I didn't know me," said Rendon, when asked to respond to critics who say he's injury-prone. "But these were freak injuries, unrelated."

Injuries aside, Rendon's teammates have taken note of his elevated draft status.

"A lot of them have said we're a package deal -- you draft one of us, you have to take both," Rendon said. "Others have said they'd be my gardener or my driver."

After all, someone has to take care of his BMW.

Places to be this weekend

By Eric Sorenson
Special to ESPN.com

If you have your hands on a Learjet this weekend, here are the places you need to get, pronto.

1. No. 1 Florida at No. 7 LSU
Watch: Friday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN3.com
Armageddon, SEC style. I can't wait to see how this one transpires. You think the Tigers can pull the trick again in back-to-back weekends? They've got their work cut out for them, that's for sure, as Florida could have the most complete team in the country with power (Preston Tucker, Daniel Pigott and Mike Zunino), defense (SS Nolan Fontana, C Zunino, etc.) and a deep pitching staff that is headed by wonder-frosh Karsten Whitson (3-0, 2.21 ERA). Don't sell the youthful Tigers arms short again (like I did last week). It was obvious to me that these guys pitch with confidence, especially when at home in the Box.
Key matchup: The nerves of Kurt McCune and Kevin Gausman versus the experience of the Florida batting order. The young guns handled the pressure of a big-time opponent last weekend, but this will be an opponent who is more familiar with them. Plus, the Gators feature a bevy of lefty bats in Fontana, Tucker and Brian Johnson, among others, so that presents a problem for the right-heavy Tigers arms.

2. No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 3 Oklahoma
The classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. This kickoff series to Big 12 play is a tasty one. OU starters Michael Rocha (4-0, 1.20 ERA) and Bobby Shore (2-0, 4.43) won't overpower a flea, but if they are getting good movement on their pitches and locating low in the strike zone, they're as difficult to hit as anyone in the country. A&M comes into Norman off a 2-0 win versus Cal State Fullerton midweek, and will feature two of the better pitchers in the country in John Stilson and Michael Wacha.
Key matchup: A&M's Dylan Mendoza versus OU's Burch Smith. There's a good chance the Aggies' duo of Wacha and Stilson will be able to pull at least a split in the first two games. Game 3 probably will come down to these two Sunday starters. Mendoza is a slightly built lefty who has emerged after throwing just six innings last year. I saw Smith throw versus Cal two weeks ago, and he is a strapping power guy. If he's on target with his meaty fastball, it's lights out. OU got two-hit last weekend versus Arkansas-Little Rock in a getaway game; don't look for a repeat two Sundays in a row.

[+] Enlarge
Al Messerschmidt/Getty ImagesMike McGee and Florida will face a tough test in Virginia this weekend.

3. No. 4 Florida State at No. 5 Virginia
Talk about a team we're dying to find out about. The Noles have been a little suspect so far, nearly blowing a series at Georgia, getting pushed by Boston College and playing a lot of stiffs. This could be a comeuppance weekend. UVa stud Danny Hultzen is still playing like the best player in the country, hitting .372 and pitching at a 4-0/0.66 ERA pace. Even after facing marquee names like Clemson, East Carolina and Auburn, the Cavaliers' pitching staff holds a ridiculous 1.71 team ERA and 188-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Key matchup: The battle of the two-way stars. Hultzen has been dynamite, and the team has followed his lead so far. But FSU's Mike McGee has been wicked big time, too, hitting at a .411 pace at the dish with three saves. McGee has thrown only four innings so far, but my guess is his services will be needed here. Whichever team uses its dual-threat star more probably will be the winning team. In other words, if Hultzen has another crazy-good start and goes deep into Friday's game, that's a good omen. Likewise, if McGee is called to the mound a couple of times this weekend, that just means FSU is protecting late leads. And that's a good thing.

4. No. 9 Arkansas at Auburn
The Tigers must have steam coming out of their noses after they dropped out of the rankings following two losses to Arizona State at home last weekend. Before that, the only top-notch opponent they faced was Virginia, which lambasted them by a 13-2 count. The Hogs still are a bit of a mystery since their schedule has lived up to its No. 250 degree of difficulty. Last week, they took three of four at San Diego State, which is a pretty good team but struggling with its youth. This series will give a good indication of who will challenge LSU in the SEC West.
Key matchup: Ryne Stanek versus the top five of Auburn. Last week, the Hogs' frosh wunderkind couldn't get out of the second inning on the mound against a youthful San Diego State team, so his start here against the Plainsmen will be crucial in determining whether this is a winning weekend for the Razorbacks. Auburn's big five of Wes Gilmer (.408), Casey McElroy (.386), Dan Gamache (.349), Justin Fradejas (.339) and Justin Hargett (.338) will be the key to making amends for last week's losses, in which they just didn't come up clutch.

5. Washington State at No. 19 Fresno State
After a pair of blowout losses to South Alabama and Dallas Baptist, Wazzu kind of fell off the radar, even though the Cougs come in with a decent 9-4 record. Their losses have been to Cal State Bakersfield (which just beat South Carolina), Minnesota (which beat UConn), South Alabama (which beat Alabama) and Dallas Baptist (which beat TCU). So you get the picture. Fresno, meanwhile, has been red-hot under the radar at 11-2, including a solid series win at Nebraska last weekend. However, a slight word of warning: staff ace Derek Benny was able to go only 1.2 innings in Lincoln last Friday. So he'll need redemption this weekend.
Key matchup: WSU pitcher James Wise versus Fresno's power sticks. Why James Wise here? He's been the Saturday starter the past few weeks, and in the three-game weekends that the Cougars have been able to complete this season, their Achilles' heel has been that they are 1-2 in Saturday games, with the one win being a white-knuckler against Utah Valley. Wise must hold down the fort and go deep in the game against the intimidating bats of Jordan Ribera, Dusty Robinson & Co.

6. No. 12 TCU at UNLV
Well, look at it this way: If the Rebels are going to stick a flag in the ground and announce they've arrived, might as well do it here in the opening weekend of Mountain West play. And why not? The Frogs come in as a humbled unit. They had their big horse Matt Purke back on the hill with no blister problems and a team named Houston Baptist nailed him with his first career loss. Gah! UNLV has scored nine runs or more in 10 of its 16 wins, so it could get hot here and make problems. The big key will be getting pitchers Tanner Peters (4-0, 0.00) and Tyler Iodence (3-0, 1.67) to throw the best games they have so far.

7. Kansas State at No. 10 Texas
The Cats were cruising along, feeling pretty good about themselves, until Saturday and Sunday rolled around. That was when they dropped back-to-back games with Long Island at home, 4-2 and 6-5. Really? Wow. But the reason they still have a lot of optimism heading into this one is that Texas has shown to be vulnerable any time Taylor Jungmann is not on the hill. The Longhorns have lost games to Maryland, Hawaii, Stanford and Brown so far. This won't be easy, but give K-State a puncher's chance after Friday.

8. Oregon State at Long Beach State
If anything, pay attention to the Friday night lid-lifter as the Dirtbags will toss out Andrew Gagnon, who has been named the Big West pitcher of the week three times in a row. He'll give the Beach its best chance at a win here as he faces off with Sam Gaviglio, who is 3-0 and 0.000 so far. Great matchup. Also watch for the potentially formidable Beavers batting order led by Andrew Susac's insane .449 average. OSU will have the advantage Saturday and Sunday.

9. Georgia at No. South Carolina
OK, the past two weekends, just about everyone in the country has underestimated the Bulldogs. They nearly pulled off a series win over No. 4 Florida State two weeks ago (winning one game) and then swept the field at the Dodgertown Classic in L.A. Now, this weekend will be the ultimate proving ground for Dave Perno's squad. Can it beat last year's runner-up (UCLA) and national champion (South Carolina) in back-to-back weeks?

10. The Cougar Invitational
Teams participating: College of Charleston, Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, Rhode Island
This could be a redemption weekend for somebody here. The shortcomings of these teams have outweighed their accomplishments so far. CofC blew a shot at an upset versus Auburn. Southern Miss dropped a series against Troy. UConn got off to that slow start, including a 10-2 loss to Purdue to start things. Rhody hasn't been the same since unfairly losing out on an NCAA at-large bid in 2009. You get the picture; everyone needs redemption here.

Eric Sorenson, who runs College Baseball Today, is a regular contributor to ESPN's college baseball coverage. Follow Eric on Twitter: @stitch_head

Follow ESPN.com's college sports coverage on Twitter and on Facebook.


You must be signed in to post a comment

Already have an account?