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Championship Week 2002

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Wednesday, March 6
 
Who'll cause tourney turmoil this week?

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

Tournament time, or as we at ESPN affectionately call Championship Week, is the best time of the year. There is a lot at stake, and everybody has new life. Each team starts 0-0, and some teams show up to play with new attitudes.

While we all make educated guesses as to who will win, nobody knows what will happen. When we think a certain team will win, we're surprised when it gets upset. When we think a tournament is wide open, we are surprised and disappointed when the teams win according to seed.

Remember last year's Big East Tournament that saw upset after upset leading to an unlikely match-up between Boston College and Pittsburgh in the title game? How about a couple of years ago when Arkansas ripped through the Southeastern Conference Tournament to steal away the automatic bid?

We know who the favorites are, but who are the sleepers? Which teams have the ability to rise up and shock the conference favorites and steal the automatic bid? These teams may not win, but shouldn't be overlooked.

Lynn Greer
Greer will try to carry the Owls into the NCAAs.
Atlantic 10 Tournament: How many years in a row have the talking heads said that nobody wants to play Temple in the postseason. It's true: playing Temple is a pain in the pitoot.

The Owls' zone defense shortens the game, and makes it difficult to get shots that teams would normally get. It can be a frustrating experience even when you win, and nobody likes to bang up against Kevin Lyde and Ron Rollerson while the others are constantly trying to strip the ball away.

And Temple is now a healthy team, with its full compliment of players available. David Hawkins has stepped forward as a scoring compliment to Lynn Greer, and John Chaney's freshman guards are shooting much better and have more confidence after a year of being in his system. The Atlantic 10 Tournament is held in Philadelphia, and the Owls always seem to do well in it.

As a longshot, watch out for St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies play a wide-open style, rain 3s and are hard to guard.

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: Duke and Maryland should meet in the final, but don't be too surprised to see N.C. State or Wake Forest crash the party and spoil everyone's expectation of Devils-Terps III.

With a healthy Josh Howard, one of the most athletic small forwards in the country, and Darius Songaila scoring inside and facing up, Wake Forest has the chops to beat Duke on a neutral court. The problem for Wake is Georgia Tech, who is playing as well as any team (except Maryland and Duke) in the league. N.C. State gave Maryland tough runs in each game they played this year, and have the ability to win. The Wolfpack will make the Terps chase them out on the perimeter, and if they are precise, make shots and rebound, State can win.

Don't expect more than one upset, though, if even that.

Big East Tournament: Georgetown is the team no coach wants to play. The Hoyas are big, strong, and can score. Lining up against the Hoyas for the opening tip is like going against a pro team. Georgetown can pound you with the big bodies like Mike Sweetney, Wesley Wilson and a host of other names for the PA announcer to rattle off, and all can give you a variety of bruises. Kevin Braswell is playing the best basketball of his career, coming off of an 18 point, 16 assist performance against Rutgers, and Tony Bethel is a nice compliment. UConn and Pitt are the top teams, but Georgetown is the scariest.

Frank Williams
Williams leads a hot Illini into Indianapolis.
Big Ten Tournament: Illinois is the hottest team, but there is no "best" team in this league right now. The only surprise to come out of the Big Ten would be if one of the teams playing on the first day were to rise up, and win its way to the final.

Of the teams that have shown some consistency during the season, Michigan State is playing well enough to wind up the champion, but would have to get past Indiana and Illinois first. That would be a tall order. However, the Spartans are the best defensive team in the league because they allow one challenged shot, and are a very good shooting team. Michigan State plays differently than it did last year, when the Spartans had a devastating transition game and beat people with strength, speed and athleticism. This year, Michigan State plays a more sloughing man to man and can't punish you on the break, but still grinds out wins. Marcus Taylor is playing like a true star, which he will be, and if he continues to score the ball with such ease, Michigan State can win this thing. Win or lose, Michigan State is going to the NCAA Tournament, and this season will be looked upon as being the most important year, and the best coaching job, in Tom Izzo's tenure.

Big 12 Tournament: This Tournament could wind up being the most fun to watch. Texas Tech has the ability to beat Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals, but the test will be whether the Red Raiders have the depth and ability to bounce back and prepare in only one day. Watch for Missouri: if Kareem Rush and Clarence Gilbert shoot well, the Tigers can beat Iowa State and Texas, and Missouri has played Oklahoma well over the past couple of seasons. Ricky Paulding is emerging as a star-caliber player, and Arthur Johnson is as productive as any sophomore big man in the league.

Ultimately, however, Kansas and Oklahoma are the best teams, and should meet in the final.

Conference USA Tournament: Charlotte has owned the Conference USA Tournament over Bobby Lutz's tenure with the 49ers, but Charlotte does not match up well with Cincinnati. While Charlotte is capable of beating the Bearcats, expect Cincinnati to reach the final.

Marquette is just as capable as Cincinnati of winning the tournament if they can keep their legs fresh, but the Golden Eagles have a brutal draw. Louisville is a hot team, although the Cardinals do not play as well away from Freedom Hall, and first-round foe TCU plays with the type of reckless abandon that can rise up and beat the Cardinals. The problem is, TCU doesn't really guard well, and that is not a good formula for postseason success.

Even though it has not beaten a top 50 rPI team this year, the scary team in Conference USA is Memphis, who has to feel that this is their time. The Tigers are talented and now healthy, and no team in Conference USA can put the talent on the floor that John Calipari can. Dajuan Wagner is a magnificent scorer, and can explode for 30 at any time. The key for Memphis is Kelly Wise, who can score and rebound, and venture out on the floor to trap and defend. Although Memphis is more than good enough to be included in the NCAA field, the Tigers still have some work to do on paper.

Mountain West Tournament: Utah and Wyoming are the top threats, and the Cowboys need to continue to win to assure themselves of an at-large bid. But watch out for UNLV.

Behind the athletic presence of Dalron Johnson, who averaged 16 points and 8 rebounds to lead the Rebels, Marcus Banks is an outstanding defender, and Lou Kelly can score the ball. Charlie Spoonhour has done a nice job getting this team to play together, and UNLV has won 8 of its last 10 games. The problem for UNLV is having to play New Mexico again in the first round. A tough matchup like that can derail upset hopes in a hurry.

Pacific 10 Tournament: Please. Unless Arizona State or Washington rises up and takes the crown, what could possibly surprise anyone out of this conference this year? I fully expect there to be a six-way tie in this tournament.

Oregon is the best transition team, Arizona may very well be the best team, Cal can guard people, Stanford has Casey Jacobsen and Curtis Borchardt, and UCLA has been given no chance by the media in Los Angeles (which means the Bruins are primed for a great run). The most dangerous team in the field may be USC, who can rely upon Sam Clancy's toughness and scoring, the shooting of David Bluthenthal, and a scrambling defense that gives different looks every time down the floor. USC keeps you off balance, and the Trojans could be the surprise in a surprisingly good league.

Brett Nelson
Nelson and the Gators need four wins to take the title.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: While it will be a brutally difficult task for anyone to win four games in this incredible field, watch out for Florida. The Gators have depth, talent and Udonis Haslem. Florida plays Auburn first, who is reeling, then draws a very good Mississippi State team. If Florida can get past Mississippi State, the Gators can win it. Haslem is the best low post player in the league, and Billy Donovan's team has been in every game, and knows how to function under stress.

This tournament is going to feel like a cage match, with everyone hoping to be the last one standing. Don't be surprised if it's Florida. Then again, don't be surprised if it's not.

WAC Tournament: The two most dangerous teams are the two best teams. Hawaii and Tulsa have had great seasons, and both teams have outstanding players that deserve more publicity.

Predrag Savovic, when he's not battling back spasms, and Carl English can both score for Riley Wallace in Honolulu or on the mainland, and Tulsa's guards are good enough to compete with anyone. The Golden Hurricane gave Kansas the best scare of the season, outside of Ball State, and Dante Swanson, Kevin Johnson and Greg Harrington can all shoot, handle, pass and defend.

If you're looking for another scary team, watch out for Louisiana Tech. Tech has won 11 of its last 13, and was 7-2 on the road. Gerrod Henderson is the best scorer at Tech since Karl Malone, and Tech leads the WAC in rebounding. It has been a while since Louisiana Tech has been feared, but if I were Tulsa or Hawaii, I wouldn't want to play them.










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