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Thursday, March 6
 
Mountain West deserves three NCAA bids

By Ed Graney
Special to ESPN.com

It's that time of year for college basketball teams sitting squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, time to state one's case for at-large worthiness.

In the Mountain West Conference, Wyoming and Nevada-Las Vegas hope to make strong enough arguments.

Utah and BYU have held the league's top spots all season and RPIs consistently in the Top 20 mean the Utes and Cougars are NCAA-bound. But the conference that has also spent a majority of the season ranked sixth in power ratings -- crazy as it sounds to some -- might struggle securing a third bid.

Steve McClain
Steve McClain has Wyoming pointed towards a possible NCAA berth.
Mountain West officials remain neutral on the subject, but there is no question they will not shed tears should someone other than Utah or BYU win the conference tournament next week in Las Vegas.

Last year, San Diego State won the postseason tournament as a No. 5 seed and earned the league's automatic bid, while Utah and regular-season champ Wyoming received at-large berths.

"If we're the sixth best league in the country, then there shouldn't be a debate about our conference (getting three NCAA bids),'' said Wyoming coach Steve McClain.

The Cowboys (20-8 overall, 8-5 conference after a 69-50 loss to BYU on Thursday) are guaranteed a regular-season finish no lower than third, a standing it could improve by finding success at Utah on Saturday.

Wyoming has an RPI of 50 this week, meaning the Cowboys are not in the guaranteed range for at-large berths. And yet, the selection committee also takes injuries into account. Wyoming lost senior wing Marcus Bailey, the league's preseason Player of the Year, to a knee injury in December.

"I think we have a couple good wins,'' said McClain when asked to offer evidence for why his team deserves at-large consideration. "Texas Tech is one. Even though people say South Carolina hasn't had a great year, if you say they're in the best conference in the country and we beat them handily, that's a good win.

"We're a better team now than we were two weeks ago. Our win at (UNLV) was a good one. I think you have to evaluate road wins. A whole lot of teams haven't gone on the road and won. There has to be some strength put to that.''

Wyoming is 6-4 overall on the road and 4-2 in conference games away from Laramie. The Cowboys also offer a season sweep of UNLV, which also has at-large thoughts should it not win the conference tournament on its home court.

The Rebels, however, saw those chances decrease in losing at Wyoming on Monday night. UNLV is 18-9 overall, 7-6 in conference and can do no better than a No. 4 seed in the league tournament.

UNLV finishes the regular season by hosting SDSU on Saturday and it appears as though the same teams will meet in the tournament's first round next week. Should the Rebels advance to the conference tournament final, they would likely offer an RPI in high 30s.

No team with an RPI of 40 or better has ever been denied an NCAA bid.

And yet …

"We'll go in thinking we need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAAs, that we don't want to take a chance and leave the decision up to the (selection) committee,'' said UNLV assistant coach Dave Rice. "We don't want to leave anything to chance.

"With the conference power rating we have had all season, three (NCAA bids) should be automatic and we should be talking about getting a fourth. It's discouraging. Our entire league upgraded non-conference schedules and that's reflected in RPIs.

"This is a very good conference, and the fact we have been rated ahead of some major conferences implies we should get at least three teams into the NCAA Tournament.''

Viva Las Vegas
Hosting the Mountain West tournament isn't as big an advantage as some might think.

That's the UNLV take, anyway.

The Thomas & Mack Center has hosted the event each of the league's first three seasons, and will do so for a fourth. The Rebels won the title three years ago, were ineligible the following season and lost to SDSU in the championship last year.

"We're still excited that it's on our home floor,'' said Rice, ""but I do think it becomes less of an advantage each season. The more teams play here, the more familiar they become.

"Also, Las Vegas is a city where fans from other teams can get to quickly. Just look at last year, when (SDSU) had a huge amount of fans drive here for the final.''

The Rebels need to take advantage of home cooking this season, because the conference tournament moves to the Pepsi Center in Denver next year.

Games of the Week
Cal at Stanford
Saturday

The Bears have now produced three consecutive 20-win seasons for the first time in school history. Senior forward Joe Shipp needs 30 points to move into the No. 5 spot on Cal's career scoring list. Stanford, meanwhile, has now won at least 22 games six of the past seven seasons. Julius Barnes has attempted a single-season school record 193 three-pointers.
Wyoming at Utah
Saturday

The Cowboys begin the week two games behind the first-place Utes and a game back of second-place BYU, which it meets Thursday in Provo. The Beehive State swing is never easy, but Wyoming would certainly increase its NCAA Tournament at-large hopes with a victory or two. Utah, with an RPI of 15, is playing for its highest possible NCAA seed.
Oregon at Arizona
Saturday

The Ducks can definitely secure their NCAA fate with any kind of success on this final regular-season road trip, which begins at Arizona State on Thursday. Over its last five games, Pac-10 champion Arizona has shot 51 percent, while holding opponents to just 38 percent from the floor.
WCC Tournament final
Monday

The top two seeds (Gonzaga and San Diego) received byes into Sunday's semifinals, affording each the best opportunity to meet in the championship on ESPN. Gonzaga swept USD in the season series. If seeds fall correctly, the semifinals will match Pepperdine against Gonzaga and San Francisco against USD.

Pac-10 nerves
It has been assumed for some time now that the Pac-10 will receive five NCAA Tournament bids, that league champion Arizona will be joined by Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Arizona State in the bracket.

But is a fifth berth guaranteed?

Oregon and Arizona State are certainly facing a critical final week of the regular season, which begins with the Ducks visiting Tempe on Thursday night.

Entering the week: Oregon is 20-7 overall, 10-6 in conference, alone in fourth and has an RPI of 45.

ASU is 17-10 overall, 9-7 in league, alone in fifth and has an RPI of 35.

Both seem awfully secure, right?

"If we can stay (in fourth place), great,'' said Oregon coach Ernie Kent. "But the key right now is to just continue winning games. Do I think we're an NCAA Tournament team? No question about it. But you just don't know because it's under someone else's control. What I think and what the selection committee thinks might be two different things. We just have to continue to win this week and into the conference tournament.''

Said ASU coach Rob Evans: "(NCAA Tournament berths) are not a concern of mine. Our team knows the magnitude of every game it plays right now. I've been in this business long enough to know someone else makes those decisions, not me.''

Oregon beat ASU 94-73 in the teams' first meeting on Jan. 4 in Eugene. Since then, Kent has noticed a significant improvement from the Sun Devils.

"They're better,'' he said. "(Freshman forward) Ike Diogu has handled himself well throughout the Pac-10. He has made huge strides in every area. Our players know they we must bring our 'A' game on this trip.

"When we're locked in mentally, we're a pretty good basketball team. We've grown up quite a bit during the Pac-10 season.''

It should pay off with another NCAA Tournament bid.

At least that's what everyone assumes.

Around the West

  • Sure thing, says Mike Montgomery. If you had told the Stanford coach a few months ago that his team's final regular-season game would be for second place in the Pac-10, he would have been surprised.

    But that's where Stanford finds itself entering Saturday's home game against rival Cal. Each is 13-4 in conference.

    "We had good summer workouts,'' said Montgomery, whose team managed its impressive season despite key early defections to the NBA and injuries to the current roster. "You know, they started to like being around each other. And once we got a few good wins early (against Xavier and Florida), it went a long ways in convincing them we could be pretty good. Now, we have a chance to play for second … Yeah, that's a little (surprising).''

  • It seems like such a dramatic slide. Among the preseason favorites to win a WAC title, Hawaii enters the week in seventh place at 15-10 overall and 7-9 in conference.

    But the Warriors also know they have won the past two conference tournament titles at the Reynolds Center in Tulsa, where this year's event will be played.

    Now, with the conference banning regular-season champ Fresno State from the league tournament after the Bulldogs self-imposed postseason sanctions, several teams (including Hawaii) have seen their chances improve.

    "Last year, we would hit shots to break teams' hearts late in games,'' said Hawaii coach Riley Wallace, whose team concludes the regular season with home games against Boise State and Texas-El Paso. ""This year, we've been the one to lose most of the close ones.''

    How close? Of the 10 losses, four have come by two points or less.

    Who's Hot
    Blake Stepp: The junior guard is the third straight Gonzaga player to earn West Coast Conference Player of the Year honors. Stepp scored a WCC-leading 20.6 points per game and ranked among the top five in steals, free-throw percentage, three-pointers and three-point shooting.

    Salim Stoudamire: The Arizona sophomore might have been limited by injury early in the season, but few are stopping him now. Stoudamire is the Pac-10 Player of the Week after averaging 19 points in road victories against Cal and Stanford.

    Who's Not
    L.A. duo: Here we are, entering the final week of regular-season play in the Pac-10, and neither USC or UCLA had secured spots in the conference tournament before Thursday's games. What odds do you think Las Vegas would have offered that the Trojans and Bruins would be a combined 17-33 overall right now?

    San Diego State: Two days after defeating Wyoming for the fourth straight time, the Aztecs lost all momentum (and a chance at a winning Mountain West record) by losing at Colorado State 102-89. CSU entered the game averaging only 67 points in conference games.

    Quotes to Note
    "We don't discuss it. He is focused on the team, which is where he should be. I have not spoken to his parents. They're handling things on their end. I just feel like he's waiting for the year to get over and then evaluate everything. That's when we'll sit down and visit on it."
    -- Oregon coach Ernie Kent when asked if he felt junior point guard Luke Ridnour would return for his senior season or jump early to the NBA.

    Ed Graney of the San Diego Union-Tribune is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He can be reached at ed.graney@uniontrib.com.








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