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| Tuesday, April 23 Updated: April 24, 10:04 AM ET Time isn't always on college's side By Andy Katz ESPN.com |
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Frank Williams made it easy on Illinois. He let the staff know a year ago that this past season would be his last. He was a fourth-year junior and could have earned back his fourth season of eligibility in his fifth year had he been on track to graduate. But there was no need to woo him back for his senior season, no need to convince him that he could go higher in the draft if he waited until 2003. This was it and the Illini had fair warning to prepare for life without him on the squad. Duke also had months to plan for Jason Williams' departure, and also knew Carlos Boozer would be leaving after his junior season. Missouri had a good idea last fall that Kareem Rush wouldn't be back for his senior season, and both Kansas and Indiana figured out during March that the neither Drew Gooden or Jared Jeffries was likely coming back to lead their teams back to the Final Four in 2003. So far, 22 underclassmen on Division I teams have declared for the NBA draft. A few more will do the same in the weeks leading up to the May 12 deadline, and the coaches they leave behind likely have contingency plans in place. That wasn't the case for Auburn's Cliff Ellis a year ago. He didn't know point guard Jamison Brewer would bolt for the NBA until the day before the early entry deadline. Auburn wasn't going to find another point guard of Brewer's caliber, but had the staff known there was a chance Brewer was leaving, then maybe it could have stepped up the recruitment of a capable backup point. Instead, Ellis and his staff spent the offseason trying to convert Marquis Daniels into the point, an experiment that was slowed by an injury and then never really came to fruition. Is it easier to know in advance? Yes. But does that mean a school will be able to replace the early entry candidate? Hardly. Scholarship limitations like the 5-9/8 rule, which limits schools to no more than five scholarships in a given season, no more than nine in two (for this year, no more than eight next season) make it harder to suddenly add a player in the late signing period. "It's easier (for the coach), but it can put undue pressure on the player throughout the season," Illinois coach Bill Self said. "Frank was more erratic than he was the prior year, but I'm not sure if that was because he declared his intentions or not. But there was no doubt Frank was leaving. His family told us that a year ago." The early-entry deadline isn't for another three weeks. And, the number of underclassmen on the early-entry list will creep over 30. There will be some who will return to college, but the majority will stick it out and hope they land in the first round, at least the second, and don't end up in the 'D' League, or any other minor league basketball operation. But, what about the teams they leave behind? How prepared were they, are they, who should adapt and who will struggle to adjust?
In Good Shape
Duke: Like Illinois, the Blue Devils staff knew for over a year that Jason Williams and Boozer would be gone after their junior seasons. They recruited last spring's junior class with the intention of losing both players. Duke got the commitments early from Sean Dockery and J.J. Redick in the backcourt, and then Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph and Michael Thompson in the frontcourt, to make up their departures. Certainly, none of these players will be as dominant as Williams and Boozer at their positions, not even close, maybe not ever in their careers. But the Blue Devils went into the recruiting knowing they had to get another point to backup Chris Duhon (in Dockery, assuming he's eligible) and another scorer to come off the bench to backup Daniel Ewing (in Redick) to offset some of Williams' scoring and playmaking. Replacing Boozer will be by committee and that's what the Blue Devils have in the three freshmen forwards to compliment the returnees of Mike Dunleavy, Dahntay Jones and role players Nick Horvath and Casey Sanders. The Duke staff was prepared for these departures and felt comfortable they fill the needs, although not nearly the talent. Kansas: Roy Williams actually got off pretty good in only losing Gooden to the draft. There was a strong chance at the beginning of the season that he was also going to see Nick Collison bolt. Then, as the season went along, possibly Kirk Hinrich. Had he lost all three then it would have been hard to keep Kansas in this list. But losing Gooden isn't as bad as it seems on the surface. Without him the Jayhawks are still a national contender. Collison could have a Gooden-like year if he gets more of his touches. Hinrich will certainly be even more of a scorer without departed senior Jeff Boschee and the expected improvement as a playmaker and scorer of Aaron Miles. Help from Keith Langford will mean the Jayhawks shouldn't miss a beat in the backcourt. But the must recruit signed in the fall when the Jayhawks got JC forward Jeff Graves. He should team up with returnee Wayne Simien to give the Jayhawks the needed beef inside and allow Collison to freelance. Graves wouldn't have been ready to take over for Gooden but with Collison and Simien he doesn't have to this season. He can serve an apprenticeship before he needs to take more of a primary role in 2003-04. Connecticut: The Huskies recruited knowing this could be Caron Butler's last season. They were actually surprised when he flirted with staying because he enjoyed his sophomore season so much and got close to coach Jim Calhoun. But filling what Butler takes with him to the NBA -- leadership, impact on the game, scoring and offensive board work -- will be done by a committee that should keep the Huskies in the top 20 all season. Returning center Emeka Okafor impacted the game more than anyone realizes, considering he altered more shots than he blocked as a freshman. And he blocked over 100. The better he gets offensively, the more he'll be able to take the pressure off developing small forward Scott Hazleton, whose career has been marred by injuries. The UConn staff is banking on Hazleton making an impact next season. But the Huskies are high on signee Denham Brown, who once scored 100 points in a game. They're billing him as a small forward and one who could step in and contribute immediately. The backcourt rotation should take up some of Butler's scoring slack with the expected improvement from Taliek Brown, Ben Gordon and Tony Robertson -- as well as newcomer Rashad Anderson. The question mark isn't as much about filling Butler's role, but departed senior Johnnie Selvie's shoes. The Huskies still need to find a rebounder and are focusing in on Israeli Yaniv Green for next season or else they'll lean on returnee Mike Hayes for boards. Missouri: The Tigers essentially knew Rush was going to bolt after this season. He said as much in the summer, that this would be his last season. He gave the Tigers some hope when he flirted with the idea of returning when the season wasn't going as well for him. But then the Tigers made a run to the Elite Eight and suddenly the NBA draft seemed appealing again. But the Tigers can absorb his loss without losing a step and still being one of the top five teams in the Big 12 and a potentially top 15 team all season. The development of Ricky Paulding as a consistent scorer is probably the best news for the Tigers. He'll likely slide into Rush's role as the primary scorer on the perimeter, and on the break and potentially on the offensive glass. The Tigers expect more out of freshman Najeeb Echols, if they can get him to play small forward rather than stick him inside where he tended to get lost. But the additions of incoming freshman shooting guard Jimmy McKinney and JC point Ricky Clemmons will help offset Rush's departure, let alone senior Clarence Gilbert. Having Clemons as the potential point could allow Wesley Stokes to act as a free safety, able to roam and make shots rather than being the one who has to set up the offense. If McKinney is the knock down shooter they expect then not all of the attention will be on Paulding. The Tigers actually might be able to handle losing Rush easier than they did Keyon Dooling two seasons ago. Michigan State: The Spartans coaching staff doesn't expect point Marcus Taylor to return to school, regardless of where he is told he falls in the draft (he's borderline first round). But the Spartans say they knew there was a chance they could lose Taylor. That's why they feel comfortable with his replacements. Michigan State picked up junior college point guard Rashi Johnson in the fall, a local signee from Flint, Mich., and not as heralded. But they're high on Johnson's playmaking skills to be a backup to Chris Hill, who played significant minutes at the point while Taylor was injured last season. Add wing Maurice Ager and the expectation that soon-to-be sophomores Kelvin Torbert and Alan Anderson will pick up their scoring and the Spartans aren't fretting losing Taylor's total package. The experience of a potential junior will be hard to replace, but the Spartans don't see why they won't be one of the Big Ten contenders from the first game, especially with likely impact forwards Matt Trannon and Paul Davis, too. And while it won't help next season, the Spartans did find a replacement for Taylor for 2003 when they got Detroit St. Martin De Porres high school junior Brandon Cotton to commit. He's already being billed as one of the best point guards in the nation, regardless of class. Virginia: The Cavaliers staff doesn't expect Roger Mason Jr. to suddenly see the light and realize he's not a lock for the first round. They are ready to bid adieu to Mason if he so chooses. But the Cavs had a replacement in Rutgers transfer Todd Billet. Add his shooting to the expected return of point Majestic Mapp and the improvement of Keith Jenifer and Jermaine Harper, and the Cavs should collectively replace Mason. Certainly losing senior Adam Hall was significant, too, but that was expected. Getting Billet was the key newcomer for the Cavs to feel good about replacing Mason's perimeter shooting. He won't be able to get the basket as easily as Mason, but he can probably score more consistently from 15-feet out. Adding freshman Derrick Byars should be a plus, too. He's expected to add scoring and is more of a prototype small forward. Having Travis Watson and Elton Brown back up front and Cal transfer Nick Vander Laan in the middle should mean the Cavs could be a contender for an NCAA berth again.
Not So Great Shape
Maryland: Chris Wilcox's decision to leave early wasn't a total shock, considering his stock had soared throughout the season. But he leaves behind a hole in the frontcourt where he would have been the dominant player in the post for the Terps. He would have picked up the touches directed to Lonny Baxter. Certainly, Tahj Holden and Ryan Randle can replace Wilcox's scoring, but they've got to pickup the slack left behind by Baxter, too. Neither has the fleet foot speed on the break, or the thunderous intimidating dunks. The Terps brought in a top recruiting class, possibly one of the best in Gary Williams' tenure -- at least his highest profile as a collection of five players. That should soften the blow of losing Wilcox, let alone the known departures of seniors Baxter, Juan Dixon and Byron Mouton. But that means players like Travis Garrison, Jamar Smith and Nik Caner-Medley will have to play more minutes earlier because of Wilcox's departure. The backcourt should be fine with Steve Blake back along with Drew Nicholas, and the expected impact of John Gilchrist and the addition of Chris McCray on the wing. Maryland will likely still find a way to be a contender in the ACC, but having Wilcox would have made it more of a certainty. Stanford: The Cardinal had a feeling that Casey Jacobsen would leave, but weren't as certain about Curtis Borchardt. The irony is that Borchardt is least likely to return because he's a lock for the lottery while Jacobsen could come back if he's not certain he's in the first round. Jacobsen will have to play his way into the first round through an impressive performance in the Chicago workouts and for any teams that give him a chance. Stanford got a potential Jacobsen replacement in shooter Dan Grunfeld and added point guard depth in Jason Haas, as well as some long-range frontcourt help in Matt Haryasz. But the replacements for Borchardt and Jacobsen for next season will have to be on the present squad. That means Robert Little will have to be more of a dominant presence in the post and Joe Kirchofer even more of an offensive threat than he has been in the past. Teyo Johnson and Justin Davis have been more roamers and not as much plodders in the post. They'll have to pick up for Borchardt's dominance in the lane. Jacobsen's scoring will have to come from Josh Childress, the slender small forward, as well as guards Julius Barnes, Chris Hernandez, Matt Lotich and Nick Robinson. None of them have the range Jacobsen possesses nor his leadership, at least as of yet. Someone will have to assert himself as the primary go-to player, not just for scoring but also for locker room purposes and that could be hard to find without Borchardt and Jacobsen. Indiana: There was always a chance Jeffries would leave for the NBA from the day he step foot on the IU campus. He considered it after his senior season at Bloomington North High School, again after last season, and was a lock to go throughout this season as he put on an MVP Big Ten season. He led the Hoosiers to the national title game and will be sorely missed. His inside-out scoring and overall presence on the court will be hard to replace. The Hoosiers lacked, at times, that one player to take over the game when he was off the court. That's why the Hoosiers desperately need George Leach and Jeff Newton to come out of the summer as if they'll be the Big Man on Campus. They have the potential to pick up for his scoring inside and out with Newton the better offensive talent. The help that's coming in next season is more geared toward the perimeter. The buzz on guards Bracey Wright and Marshall Strickland is legit, and both could come in immediately and have an impact on a backcourt that is getting the appropriate hype with Tom Coverdale, Kyle Hornsby and Donald Perry being praised throughout the run to the title game. The other two signees -- Daryl Pegram and Roderick Wilmont -- might have to help out sooner than later in the frontcourt without Jeffries. This could end up being a Big Ten contending team, but it would have been a team to beat in the Big Ten had Jeffries returned. Tennessee: Losing Marcus Haislip probably didn't come as a surprise to Buzz Peterson, but it still hurts the Volunteers. They were already going to be without Vincent Yarbrough and not having the shot-blocking Haislip in the post means the Volunteers might have to rely on a quicker team. Ron Slay has to come back from a season-ending knee injury and Brandon Crump and Elgrace Wilborn need to be more of a factor in the middle. The help on the way for this team focuses more on the perimeter with point C.J. Watson and wings John Winchester and Stanley Asumnu. Jon Higgins and Thaydeus Holden are back on the perimeter, so the Vols should be stocked. But not having Haislip means freshman center Boomer Herndon might have to play more minutes than Peterson imagined when he signed him. This will still be a work in progress, but Haislip could have given the Vols a chance to still be a tournament team next season. If the Vols make the NCAAs next season then it would be quite a coup for this program. California: The Bears were just getting to know Jamal Sampson's post moves when he decided to declare for the draft. The timing doesn't help the Bears chances of staying as a consistent NCAA tourney team. Cal never got a chance to see if Kennedy Winston could help out with scoring and board work in the post after he got out of his letter and went to Alabama. Role player Gabriel Hughes decided to transfer, leaving Cal a bit challenged in the post. Amit Tamir is more of an outside-in scorer and not as much as a board man. The Bears are still strong on the perimeter with Shantay Legans, Joe Shipp, Brian Wethers and newcomer Richard Midgley. But not having Sampson, either Hughes (Solomon was a senior) means newcomer David Paris will have to contribute immediately. Cal's forte is defense and the Bears will miss that key shot-blocker and a defensive rebounder without Sampson. Fordham: The Rams knew there was a chance Smush Parker could bolt after this season, considering the hype he received throughout the year. Losing reserve Adrian Walton to the draft was a surprise, but his contributions weren't as important as simply being on the squad. Attrition and transfers have left the team with only four returning players -- if Parker stays in the draft. Walton already said his goodbyes, but Parker has the sense to return if he's not a lock for the first round. The Rams signed five newcomers and they'll all have to play, considering the team might only have nine scholarship players. Even with Parker the Rams were looking at a second-division finish in the Atlantic 10. But at least he would give them hope to get out of the cellar. Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. |
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