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Betting Wednesday's top games

Picking ATS winners for the biggest college basketball games

Originally Published: February 27, 2013
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

Every week for the rest of the college basketball season, Dave Tuley will resume his Tuley's Take on the big midweek games with a piece on Tuesday and another on Wednesday as we head toward the conference tournaments (his favorite time to find live underdogs in recent years) and into March Madness. He'll give a projected point spread and pick for each.

Tuesday night was highlighted by upsets, with Minnesota knocking off No. 1 Indiana, Tennessee beating No. 8 Florida and Xavier defeating No. 19 Memphis. I was glad to have all three in my Tuesday column for ESPN Insider.

I did lose with Auburn and Wake Forest failing to cover in their games to go 3-2 ATS overall, but as I posted in the comments and on Twitter, "I'll take 60% all day/all night." Including last week, that makes my top plays 6-3 ATS, 6-4 if counting that Miami (Fla.) kinda-sorta-but-not-really pick from last week.

Also in the comments Tuesday, ESPN Insider subscriber justgiants posted, "I too can pick every underdog." But I'll reiterate that even though nearly every team I choose to bet is an underdog, I don't pick every underdog. There's a difference. There were 12 games in major college basketball Tuesday night. Underdogs covered six and favorites covered six, so you still have to pick the right ones to show a profit. While I did take the 'dog in all five games Tuesday night, that's because I liked all five and felt the points they were getting represented betting value.

That's not always the case, as we'll see when we look at Wednesday's games, plus a glance at Duke-Virginia on Thursday night thrown in for good measure.


Wednesday's games


Georgetown Hoyas at UConn Huskies

Projected point spread: Georgetown minus-3
PickCenter breakdown

What did my three wins Tuesday night have in common? Besides the obvious that they were all underdogs, they were all home 'dogs. I'm sure a lot of people are assuming I'll automatically take the home 'dog here, but this is where I'll show I can be selective. This number has come up too short for my liking, and it's 2.5 at a lot of books. Georgetown leads the Big East, and there has been speculation that the Hoyas could be a No. 1 seed (though Joe Lunardi has them on the 2-line).

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