Bracket Math: Latest S-curve

Gonzaga looks primed for top line; Boise, UK still among last four in

Updated: March 12, 2013, 12:08 PM ET
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider

This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Monday, March 11. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the new math:

• Gonzaga solidified its standing as a likely No. 1 seed with its win over Saint Mary's in the WCC championship Monday night. It's hard to see a scenario in which the Zags don't appear on the top line when the brackets are revealed Sunday, as we've never seen an Associated Press No. 1 team that also won its conference tournament be denied a No. 1 seed. How Duke and Indiana perform in their respective conference tournaments will play a big role in which team gets the No. 1 overall seed.

• Thanks to the Big East, today is the slowest day of Championship Week. There are only two games at Madison Square Garden tonight, and neither involves a worrisome team from a bracket standpoint. Gone are the days when a four-game Tuesday marathon involved any number of potential bubble teams.

• Was it only two years ago that Connecticut won the first of 11-straight elimination games to capture the Big East and NCAA tournament titles? Those Huskies were a No. 9 seed in New York and went just 9-9 in conference play. So in honor of UConn, and the current Huskies that cannot participate, I hereby name a trophy -- The Kemba -- for any team that can win five games in five days to reach the NCAAs.

• Most impactful Tuesday games: championships in the Northeast Conference, Horizon League and Summit League, but none involve potential at-larges. Also, Princeton plays Penn at the Palestra in an Ivy League game that is never meaningless.

The Bracket

This is where I project where teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-Curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.